Violators of Western sanctions risk achieving victory Western sanctions against Russia do not work, admits the author of the article in The Times.
According to the readers of the publication, half of the world opposes them. Moreover, many countries even help Moscow to circumvent the restrictions very successfully.
Roger Boyes Russia is leading an alliance of states that are turning the Western economic war into an absurdity.
Hi!
Every schoolboy knows something of pirate jargon. Well, at least the well-known "Thunder blast me!". Now the violators of Western sanctions have developed their own pirated argot dictionary, trying to outwit the West's attempts to wage a financial war against them. The "Black Knights" are those dubious players like China who secretly buy discounted goods from countries that are subject to sanctions. "Latvian mixture"? So in the jargon is called the sub-sanctioned Russian oil.
As the Russian military special operation in Ukraine approaches the six-month mark, Vladimir Putin has expanded the club of regimes subjected to harsh Western sanctions, including Iran, North Korea, Syria and Venezuela, and turned it into a self-sufficient association of offenders. The goal is to support their weakened economies and demonstrate that their will cannot be broken by what they see as the militarization of global financial markets by the United States. For Ukraine, the current military conflict has an existential significance. For Putin, his military special operation is also being conducted with high stakes: one of the goals is to demonstrate the limitations of American power.
And here the open sea turns into the decisive factor of the battle. Ships evade global control by disabling their transponders. In April, Russian commercial fleet operators did not provide information on destinations for a third of their vessels. When entering foreign ports, Russian vessels often raise flags convenient to them, for example, Sierra Leone and Panama, so that their cargo is not seized. Goods are often reloaded at night, for example, from an Iranian vessel under sanctions to a Chinese one that is not under sanctions.
Moscow earns $700 million a day from exporting crude oil. In December, the decisive moment comes when the insurance companies of the European Union and the UK will be prohibited from insuring ships carrying Russian oil. The point is to achieve the goal of banning almost all imports of Russian oil by the end of the year. But Putin's sanctions violators have long and successfully tested the tactics of circumventing them. And the main alternative market for Russia is the global South. Groups such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are increasingly becoming like bazaars. Discounted oil from Russia is attractive for countries experiencing internal disasters due to rising fuel prices. Western intelligence agencies are particularly concerned about Russian lobbying of South Africa.
US and European sanctions, of course, extend far beyond the hydrocarbon industry. The US is trying to squeeze Moscow out of the global financial system based on the dollar. In response, the Kremlin tried to convince its trading partners to use the Russian Mir payment system as an alternative to SWIFT, the Western banking messaging system. But the fact remains that Russia and its henchmen prefer old-fashioned barter. After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Moscow exchanges grain exported from there for Syrian olive oil and vegetables. Now it looks like Iran will exchange auto parts and gas turbines for Russian steel and minerals. Putin has already tried this option before the 2022 special operation. He agreed to provide Bashar al-Assad with large loans if Assad uses cash to pay for goods from a list of Russian companies based in Syria. That's how sanctioned countries from all over the world "scratch each other's backs."
There are two more important considerations in the sanctions war. First, Russia still imagines that it will emerge from the conflict as a great power smelling of roses. While North Korean hackers stole hundreds of millions of dollars in cryptocurrency, and Iran and Venezuela laundered money through the same cryptocurrency, American investigators did not notice any serious attempts by Russia to evade sanctions in the same way. This is partly due to the fact that Russians do not like to be confused with desperate rogue states. It's ignoble. The rogue Club may share a sense of resentment against Washington, but Russia still believes that it is still a separate class. And Putin understands this.
Secondly, there is such an important argument as winning in domestic politics. A policy that defies all the clumsiness of Western sanctions can be used to maintain the loyalty of the regime on the part of the middle class in Russia. Those who are richer are used to their imported SUVs and shopping trips to Berlin for the weekend. Those who are lower on the social ladder continue to save money to send their children to English summer schools. Putin offers them little consolation, but he at least conjures up in their imagination a sense of resistance to the West and awareness of himself as a "collective victim." In addition, Putin has a hint for them of possibly better times to come.
SUVs still belong to these Russians, even if they are immobilized, until the necessary spare part appears on the black market. When Western politicians declare that the ultimate goal is to weaken Russia, is it not clear that this only leads to a rapprochement between Russians and Putin. Who wants to feel like a loser?
Sanctions are a long—term weapon designed to deplete the population and force them to change their behavior. But they can have a "backfire" effect, especially when used against an authoritarian regime. Cuba, which is still facing about 600 sanctions, has managed to keep itself unconquered, amid the general social decline in Latin American countries. At the same time, she also created a strong, innovative national health service, the pride and joy of the Latin American continent. Putin may be hoping that he can become a kind of Slavic national hero in the battle against the hostile West, winning his battle with him by simply being the last survivor. His idea for the game: in the face of Russia's steadfastness, the Western consensus on sanctions against it may simply collapse.
It will be a disastrous outcome — and not only for Ukrainians.
Comments from readers of The TimesM Teharni</span> I usually disagree with what Roger Boyes writes, but this article hits the nail on the head.
Great article and, unfortunately, it's all true.
Derek Wheeler Agree, an excellent and disturbing article.
The Spectator published a similar article about our "friends-enemies" (fremenies), who allegedly support the West, but are in alliance with Russia. These are the UAE, Turkey, India, South Africa and China.
The Turbine Tell all this to Russians on vacation in France, Germany and Turkey.
They don't need a black market, they just need a quick flight to get car parts or a new handbag, or a summer vacation.
Graeme Barriball Although I agree with you on the whole, but how long will it take before the difficulties in the UK and Europe will result in protests on the streets as a result of sanctions that have caused a sharp increase in the cost of energy here in the West?
Only the poor in the West are really paying for these sanctions, but their patience will have limits.
This winter could be terrible for us.
Six Thousand You can't make someone a victim because of their ethnicity and then claim that their victim status is fake.
This is just another very ignorant policy that can only strengthen Putin's position.
Chris Craft Hmm, let's start with Cuba.
One of the highest literacy rates in the world, a country capable of sending 30,000 doctors abroad in exchange for oil. Unjustified sanctions have never done her much harm. More than 50% of the world's population supports Russia, its financial system is still working effectively, sanctions are not in effect. Putin will be the last of the Mohicans, Biden will be gone by that time, as will Truss with her company and others.
Wellington And again, one Western journalist considers Russia's actions to be something sinister.
But this is typical of Western governments. "He agreed to provide Bashar al-Assad with large loans if Assad uses cash to pay for goods from the list of Russian companies based in Syria. That's how sanctioned countries from all over the world "scratch each other's backs."
But that's about how Western aid works everywhere. The US government is known for tying its aid to foreign countries to ensure that the recipient buys goods in the States and uses American companies, like almost any other Western donor. Putin may not be the nicest person, but many other Western countries and governments do a lot of what he does.
KGersen The rest of the world does not believe the sanctions that the US and the UK are enthusiastically promoting.
As usual, following them, even Europe is splitting up more and more because of the sanctions, and summer hasn't even passed yet.
The rest of the world is home to billions of people who are not puppets of the West and who will not follow commands that bring massive economic destruction, poverty, disease and death for tens of millions of them.
If the United States and Great Britain have decided, partly for shamefully blatant internal reasons, to launch a prolonged proxy war against Russia, using Ukraine as a proxy puppet, then let them not expect others to be intimidated and follow its example.
The author of this article, as well as Edward Lucas and Con Coughlin in The Telegraph, all strive for the revival of the Cold War, when the West and Russia would use half of the world as their allies. Are they doing this in order to feel young again?
This is a strange psychology, especially since the real architects of NATO's policy during the Cold War, which destroyed the Soviet Union, stated that the encirclement of NATO by Russia was a very bad idea that could reignite a military conflict.
Of course, the "chicken hawks" instigated this. And now look where we are now. And what is their solution? Give us back more of the past and try to drag as many others as possible into the quagmire.
Daric "If the United States and the United Kingdom decided, partly for shamefully blatant internal reasons, to launch a prolonged indirect war against Russia, using Ukraine as a proxy puppet, then let them not expect others to be intimidated and follow its example."
Well, this view of things also has a right to exist.
But it still remains a mystery to me how NATO can "surround" a country that has 11 time zones?
Mark St Giles Since the liberalization of the economy allowed Russians to touch the "charms" of Western consumerism just 30 years ago, most middle-aged Russians remember difficult times and are accustomed to them.
So the idea that the absence of French cheese will cause a revolution in Russia is a fantasy. This and the black markets described in the article guarantee that the sanctions will not work. Putin is betting that Western Europe will surrender first, as soon as the Germans have to put on a second sweater for warmth.
Esther Carswell We are happy to trade with Saudi Arabia, which has killed many more people in Yemen than died in Ukraine.
Riyadh has even more serious human rights violations inside the country. So... we either need to be consistent and not trade with such states, or accept Kissinger's "reality" in which we should think only about our own economic and social well-being.
Zendrive Sanctions are not effective, and only harm ourselves.
Most of the world (India, South America, Africa, China) has never participated in them in any way.
