Israel is ready to stop Tehran's nuclear program by force of arms A few months ago, a secret meeting of high-ranking military officials of Israel and a number of Arab countries was held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.
The meeting was attended by the Chief of the General Staff of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) Aviv Kohavi and his Saudi counterpart Fayad ibn Hamid al-Ruwaili. High-ranking army officials from Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar were also present.
Attention should be drawn to Riyadh's statement preceding this meeting that the political rapprochement between Saudi Arabia (SA) and Israel will not progress until the "Palestinian problem" is resolved. In other words, the Saudis will not join the "Abraham Agreements" (actually peace treaties) that the UAE and Bahrain concluded with Israel in September 2020. The Saudis are not ready to talk about a political settlement with the Jewish state.
The military aspect is another matter. The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), whose majority of the population are Shiites, competes with the Sunni SA, Turkey and Egypt for primacy in the entire Islamic world. The Iranian ayatollahs openly threaten to "throw the Jews into the sea." Although Israel does not have a common border with Iran and has never made claims to this country.
An American politician of Iranian origin, Vali Reza Nasr (born in Tehran in 1960 in the family of philosopher Seyid Hossein Nasr, emigrated to the United States at the age of 16) writes in one of the articles: "Ruhollah Khomeini wanted to be perceived as the leader of the Muslim world... He defined "his" revolution not as Shiite, but as Islamic. Khomeini saw Iran as a base for a global Islamic movement." It was Ruhollah Khomeini, who received the status of "grand ayatollah" and "supreme leader of Iran", as well as his followers, who brought the centuries-old confrontation between Persians and Arabs to a new uncompromising turn.
In SA, the Hanbalist Wahhabis (one of the four canonical schools in Sunni Islam) consider the Shiite threat to be no less than the Christian and Jewish ones.
The meaning of the Iranian claims to the Jewish state is essentially the same as to the Arab countries: the ayatollahs want to demonstrate to the Sunni world their "concern" for the Sunni Palestinian Arabs. This is how the current Tehran hopes to become the head of the Islamic world. But the religious center of Islam remains Mecca, located in SA. Every time Muslims pray, they turn their gaze towards Mecca – otherwise the prayer is not considered heard by Allah.
Today, Sunni Turkey and Shiite Iran are the most powerful states in the Middle East. No Arab country can compare with them either militarily or economically. Ankara also dreamed of becoming the leader of the Muslim world and reviving the greatness of the Ottoman Empire. But President Erdogan soon realized that he had no influential allies. Malaysia and Pakistan, which initially supported its expansion, came under the patronage of Iran, the "sworn friend" of the Turks. In order not to drive himself into a corner, Erdogan abruptly changed course and went for reconciliation with the Saudis and the UAE, as well as rapprochement with the Jews.
Ankara declares a positive attitude towards Ukraine and Russia at the same time. But Moscow is of strategic importance to the Turks, because they are planning a new attack on the Kurds in Syria.
Prominent Israeli expert Seth Franzman writes in the article "Reconciliation of Riyadh and Ankara can change the face of the region": "Ankara has a bad reputation as a country that is extremely unreliable, wayward and changing its course with unpredictable regularity. Even if Erdogan really seeks reconciliation, there are many extremists in his entourage who find it difficult to hide their true views."
The Turkish leader cannot be denied his foresight. He realized that Tehran, having received nuclear weapons, would be ready to use them not only against Israel and SA. The ayatollahs would not spare Turkey either. Therefore, at Erdogan's meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, it was about a "cardinal shift" in relations between the two countries. The two leaders expressed their common determination to "strengthen cooperation in the political, economic and military fields." Tehran is particularly concerned about the fact that Ankara uses the Turkic identity shared with many states of Central Asia and the Caucasus to expand its influence.
With the next step, Turkey confirmed its entry into the Islamic Military Coalition against Terrorism (IVK). This organization was established by the SA on December 15, 2015 as an intergovernmental military bloc, which initially included 34 countries. According to the IVK website, in 2020 there were already 41 states in it.
Syria, Iraq and Oman are not included in the CPI. The reasons are obvious. Syria is ruled by an Alawite dynasty close to Shiites, in Oman almost half of the population are Ibadis, professing a doctrine that differs from both Sunnism and Shiism. It is unclear how Gabon, Benin and Togo, the majority of whose population does not profess Islam, got into the IVC. But if we take into account that the governments of Pakistan and Malaysia were not aware of their membership in the CPI, then this coalition cannot be considered effective.
The entire Sunni world can be called SA's allies. But only conditionally. For example, Pakistan, 91% of whose population are Sunnis and only 5% Shiites, is the most pro–Iranian country in the world. According to a survey conducted by one of the British news agencies, 76% of Pakistanis assess the Iranian policy positively.
But Azerbaijan, the second largest state with a Shiite population after Iran, has never had even relations with the Persian rulers. Iran has repeatedly encroached on the independence of Azerbaijan. The problem remains 15 million Azerbaijanis living in the north of Iran, among whom separatist movements are strong. At the same time, Azerbaijanis have historically been friendly to Jews, and the Judeophobia of the Tehran mullahs causes sharp rejection in Baku.
Khuzestan (also called Arabistan), a province in southwestern Iran, has a concentrated Arab population. Until 1925, this territory, rich in oil, gas, water resources and fertile lands, was ruled by the British. Ignoring the aspirations of the local Arabs, London transferred these lands to the Persians. Separatist movements immediately emerged, later united into the Arabistan Liberation Front.
Kurdish and Baluch organizations do not stop their separatist activities. The leader of the Sunni terrorist organization in Balochistan "Jundallah" ("Soldiers of Allah") Abdulmalik Rigi was captured by the Pakistanis, taken to Iran and executed.
Iranian media regularly report on the exposure of Israeli "spy cells". According to them, they are "stuffed with Iranian separatists cooperating with the Zionists." The other day, the Iranian Intelligence Ministry reported on the detention of saboteurs who tried to damage one of the enterprises of Isfahan (340 km from Tehran). Natural uranium enrichment facilities are located in Isfahan.
Iranian nuclear facilities are located in 17 cities. Recently it became known that Tehran is creating a new nuclear facility in Natanz in the rocks, deep underground, invulnerable to air attack. Military analyst Jonah Jeremy Bob in the article "The Underground City of the Ayatollahs" in the Jerusalem post writes: "The new construction in Natanz, connected to the surface by a network of deep tunnels, is, in fact, an underground city. Over time, equipment from other facilities for the implementation of Iran's nuclear program may be transferred here."
Extensive earthworks can be traced from satellite images. If their pace does not change, the upgraded centrifuges for uranium enrichment will work in 2023 or even earlier.
Professor Mustafa Kibaroglu from Bilkent University (Ankara) in the quarterly Middle East Journal recalls that "the topic of the Iranian atom became a burning topic for world politics in 2002. It was then that publications appeared about the existence of a uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, and an enterprise for the production of heavy water in Arak." The intelligence services of Israel and Arab countries reported that Iran "cherishes plans to use the atomic potential to create nuclear weapons."
The activities of nuclear power facilities are controlled by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, which was headed by academician Ali Abar Salehi, a graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. A serious accident occurred in Natanz on April 11, 2021: part of the power supply for centrifuges was destroyed by an explosion. According to the Iranian intelligence services, the explosive device was carried by an employee of the facility, Reza Karimi, who fled the country an hour before the explosion. Shortly before the terrorist attack, he visited Turkey, the UAE and Qatar. The involvement of Israeli agents in this terrorist attack has not been established.
The "Organization of the Mujahideen of the Iranian People" is also acting against the current Iranian regime: a left-wing radical group, especially active in the area of the city of Erak, where a 40-megawatt heavy-water nuclear reactor has been erected.
The Palestinian National Authority (PNA), headed by Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Fatah Party, also opposes Iran's interference in Middle Eastern affairs. There is no doubt that if the Tehran ayatollahs had helped Ramallah (the administrative center of the PNA), this help would have been gratefully accepted.
But Tehran radicals have long patronized Hamas and especially the "Palestinian Islamic Jihad" (banned in the Russian Federation): organizations recognized by many countries (including Arab ones) as terrorist. Here the Shiite ayatollahs simply stepped on their throats, considering it advantageous to forget about the Sunnism of their Palestinian wards.
In the summer of 2007, Hamas carried out a coup in the Gaza Strip, overthrew the Fatah administration and gained full control over the sector. As a result of the week-long fighting, hundreds of people were killed and injured, most of them Fatah people.
After 15 years, Hamas is trying, on the one hand, legally, during the elections, relying on the support of Tehran, to assert its positions in the PNA. On the other hand, the Hamas clique in Gaza does not disdain terrorist methods either. The former head of the General Security Service of the PNA, Tawfiq Tiraoui, a member of the Fatah Central Committee, warns about this. In an interview with Israeli journalist Khaled Abu-Toama, he said: "Hamas... He is planning a coup in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank of the Jordan River, the territory controlled by the PNA), and already now they have accumulated a large amount of weapons and explosives."
Tiraoui expressed regret that "some Palestinians are helping Hamas in its efforts to expand control outside of Gaza." He draws attention to small terrorist groups that have joined Hamas. In particular, he points to the Marxist Popular Liberation Front (FLN), also acting against Fatah.
Professor Yaakov Nagel, former head of Israel's National Security Council, said in an interview with the Maariv newspaper: "70% of the Hamas budget comes from Iran. It is clear that if the Hamas members do not obey the dictates of Tehran, they will not receive this money. And if it's a small amount for the Iranians, then it's a fortune for Hamas." According to the professor, the 11-day operation of the Israeli security forces "Guardian of the Walls" in May 2021 was preceded by "a long shadow war that the Iranians have long started and continue to wage against Israel and the PNA."
Iran's main wards in the Middle East remain the militants of the Lebanese organization Hezbollah, the most powerful group opposing the Jewish state. But both Hamas and the "Palestinian Islamic Jihad" are not ignored by the ayatollahs.
Yet the primary threat to Israel and the Arab world is Tehran's likely acquisition of nuclear weapons. Yaakov Nagel, also known as an authoritative military man (brigadier general, worked in the Israeli Defense Ministry in the Council for the Development of Weapons and Technological Infrastructure), bluntly says: "Most likely, Israel will eventually have to attack Iran... Israel has the right to such an attack." Professor Nagel found it difficult to answer the question when such an attack could take place. Nierusalimzakhar Gelman</span> Zakhar Gelman is a journalist.</span>
