The looming threat of Russia's claims in the Black Sea
Ukraine will receive a catastrophic blow if it loses access to the Black Sea as a result of a Russian special operation, writes TNI. According to the author of the article, NATO should strengthen its presence in the region and at the same time strengthen the security of Moldova.
Ilya Timchenko (Ilya Timtchenko)
Western publications focused mainly on how Ukraine successfully drove the Russian army away from the gates of Kiev and Kharkov. But the battle for Donbass is not over yet, and another important battle looms on the horizon — the Ukrainian administration has announced a major counteroffensive in the south. The fall of Mariupol and Russia's desire to occupy the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine represent a great threat. Russia wants to subjugate not only Ukraine, but also the entire Black Sea.
The coastline of Ukraine, stretching from the so—called "Transnistria" to Mariupol and Crimea, is a coveted trophy for Russia. Not being able to take Kiev or Kharkiv, but having established a land corridor to the Crimea, Russia will try to cause the greatest damage. And Ukraine, having lost access to the Black Sea, will receive a catastrophic blow and turn into a stump state.
This became clear from the recent staged attacks on the separatist region of Transnistria, supported by the Kremlin, the intense shelling of Odessa, the Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports and Moscow's great desire to take Mariupol as soon as possible (so in the original text, – Approx. InoSMI).
Trading
The south of Ukraine is not only the gateway to its economic arteries, but also deposits of valuable resources. Through the ports of the Black Sea, Ukraine supplies the countries of Africa and the Middle East with food, and the European Union supplies iron and steel. Ukraine's economy depends on the export of goods, and it, in turn, depends on access to the Black Sea.
According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, in 2021 ferrous metals accounted for 22.4% of the country's total exports, and grain and related products accounted for as much as 30%. Some of the supplies can be transferred to rail transport, but this will take time, will be expensive and will not be as effective. In addition, Russia is also striking at the railway and transport infrastructure of Ukraine.
By depriving Ukraine of access to the Black Sea, Russia will put a knife to one of the most vulnerable areas of the Ukrainian economy and take a lot of hungry people around the world hostage.
Energy sabotage
The south of Ukraine accounts for the bulk of renewable energy sources in the country: due to favorable conditions in terms of wind and solar, many Western and Ukrainian companies have installed wind turbines and solar panels there. Two large nuclear power plants are also located in the south — Yuzhno-Ukrainskaya and Zaporizhia. The latter was on the verge of an international environmental and humanitarian catastrophe — presumably due to Russian bombing. The situation is still under threat, as the Russians are storing weapons in the engine room of the first reactor.
The Black Sea coast of Ukraine is rich in deposits that are practically not being developed at the moment, but, according to estimates, significantly exceed the proven reserves on land. The Russian gas pipeline passes through the south of Ukraine just above Nikolaev and Odessa, touches Moldova and goes to Romania through Orlovka. If Russia absorbs this branch of the gas pipeline, the Kremlin will win another strategic victory.
Rare earth metals
But, perhaps, the most important, albeit inconspicuous resource of the south-east of the country is the reserves of rare earth metals (copper, nickel and lithium) along the Ukrainian Shield, crossing the country diagonally from northwest to southeast. Lithium is probably the most valuable — it is called "white gold" for a reason. It is used to produce batteries for solar panels, cell phones, electric vehicles and military equipment.
According to Ukrainian researchers, lithium oxide deposits in the east of the country amount to 500,000 tons. If this is proven, Ukraine will become one of the world leaders in lithium reserves, with the highest concentrations located just near Mariupol. According to Rod Schoonover, former director of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources of the US National Intelligence Council, rare earth metals are certainly an important factor in the Kremlin's strategic military operation.
There is a real interest on the part of business in the lithium deposits of Ukraine. Back in November, the Australian company European Lithium announced the acquisition of rights to two Ukrainian lithium deposits. China was also interested in them: The company Chengxin Lithium has applied for the rights to lithium in Donetsk and Kropyvnytskyi. If Russia gets full control over these fields, it will have more negotiating opportunities, including with China — both prospects are very worrying for Ukraine.
Control over the Black Sea
Russia considers the Black Sea to be a "Russian lake" and has historically sought to take these waters under its control. Today, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is blocking Ukrainian ports, obstructing world shipping and shelling Ukrainian cities with cruise missiles. In the recent past, Russia conducted an anti-democratic experiment in the Black Sea region: it annexed Crimea, invaded Georgia, blocked the Kerch Strait and tested the reaction of NATO.
The Ukrainian coast is vital for the control of the Black Sea. Kiev and its partners should not allow a ceasefire agreement if it allows Russia to strengthen ties between the occupied territories, establish puppet administrations and cut off Ukraine from the sea.
In addition, Ukraine and the West should not fall into the trap of giving away land for the sake of dubious Russian guarantees. Due to the unconvincing actions of the Russian army, the stubborn resistance of Ukraine and arms supplies from the West, Russia's opportunities for the occupation of the entire Black Sea coast have significantly decreased. However, the Kremlin's recent comments remind us that Russia is still aiming for a big victory.
Mariupol is of particular importance and should not remain in the hands of Russia. The heroes of "Azovstal" will remain in history. And the city itself is too big a symbolic and strategic victory to put up with the Russian occupation.
Fortunately, Russia is stuck in the Donbass and does not seem capable of a new offensive, but it's too early to rejoice. If Russia gets out of the Donbass quagmire and conducts a successful offensive in the south, Ukraine's very existence will remain under threat.
The transatlantic community has ignored all warnings about Moscow for many years and now must take Russian aspirations seriously, repel the offensive in the south, restore freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and prevent Russia from seizing new lands.
This can be achieved through accelerated deliveries of heavy weapons to Ukraine — including long-range missiles, highly mobile artillery missile systems (HIMARS) or their analogues, fighters and bombers, as well as air defense systems.
NATO should strengthen its presence in the Black Sea in Romania and Bulgaria and strengthen Moldova's security against Russian invasion. In addition, the United States and its partners should tighten sanctions against Russia to prevent it from developing its fleet. Finally, it is necessary to put pressure on countries such as India, which trade with the aggressor state in circumvention of sanctions.
Ilya Timchenko is a researcher at the Belfer Center's intelligence project, a candidate for a master's degree in public policy from Harvard Kennedy School and a fellow of the Belfer Young Leaders Program
