The growing tension around Taiwan after the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi to the island seriously worried Japan, the closest military–political partner and ally of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. Back in 2021, a group of senior officers of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces began modeling Tokyo's response to the PRC's attack on Taiwan, if any.
Deputies from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and former high-ranking officers of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces participated in the simulation. Among the guests is former Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera, who served as Prime Minister. The participants of the simulation, which had the character of a kind of game, considered several scenarios of a possible reaction of the Japanese government.
One of the modeling options is political instability in both Taiwan and China. China is allegedly growing dissatisfaction with the rule of President Xi Jinping. In Taiwan, the activity of the independence movement is increasing.
According to the scenario, fishing vessels from mainland China proceed to the Senkaku Islands, which are controlled by Japan, but which are also claimed by China. There is a collision with a patrol vessel of the Japanese Coast Guard. In Taiwan, at this time, there are systemic failures in banks and other institutions. Anti-government forces are staging large-scale protests in the island's capital Taipei. Then China launches missile strikes on Taiwan.
Against the background of these events, a meeting of the National Security Council of Japan is being held. Its participants imitated US coordination actions and organized meetings between the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense of the two states, as well as their leaders.
The National Security Council of Japan recognized the provocation on the Senkaku Islands as an armed act of aggression against Japan. The missile attack on Taiwan has also been classified as an armed attack on a third country that threatens Japan's survival. Accordingly, Japan has the right to collective self-defense.
Then two scenarios were worked out – the evacuation of Japanese civilians and a possible reaction to China's use of nuclear weapons. The first scenario was the request of the Ministry of Defense to the government to quickly sort out the situation.
However, Onodera, who played the role of the country's prime minister in the simulation, said that if the government made a sharp statement, relations with China could collapse. The main task in this situation is the evacuation of Japanese from other countries, including China itself, as well as Taiwan.
It is assumed that such game simulations of various critical situations will be repeated further. Allied relations with the United States create many risks for Japan. After all, in the case of a real confrontation with China, the consequences for the Japanese side can be catastrophic.
