The Russian special operation is causing serious alarm on a strategically important European strip of land
Western military strategists are concerned that Russia may try to "seize" the Suwalki corridor near the Polish-Lithuanian border, the WSJ writes. Residents of the region told the publication what has changed in their lives after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine.
Daniel Michaels
NATO is concerned about the future of the Polish-Lithuanian border region located between the Kaliningrad Region and Belarus. No one knows what might happen there in the near future.
Suwalki, Poland – This serene rural region around the Polish-Lithuanian border is known for its hilly lands, quiet lakes and historic towns.
And strategists from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization also know it as an explosive point.
The city of Suvalki with a population of 69 thousand people is located inside a 70-kilometer corridor of NATO territory between two military fortified areas of Russia. In the south-east is a close ally of Moscow, Belarus. To the northwest is the Kaliningrad Region, a piece of Russian territory cut off from the rest of the country with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Western military strategists call this territory the Suwalki Corridor. They are concerned that Russia, which annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and launched military operations in Ukraine this year, may try to seize this border region by force, connecting the Kaliningrad Region with Belarus.
Threatening statements by the Russian and Belarusian authorities increase concern in the region, as well as the bill recently submitted to the Russian Parliament on the denunciation of recognition of Lithuania's independence from the Soviet Union from 1991.
The military operation in Ukraine is also causing concern in other countries surrounding Russia. These states have either been in alliance with Moscow for decades, or have not felt the threat of attack. Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO, and Kazakhstan and some other former Soviet republics of Central Asia that remained in the Russian orbit are gradually moving away from Moscow, doubting its reliability as an ally.
The Suwalki Corridor region knows many conflicts. Napoleon's invading and retreating armies passed through it. During the World Wars there were fierce battles. When the Second World War ended, this territory came under the control of the Soviet Union, and the Kaliningrad Region became part of it.
Today, military leaders and intelligence officials do not see an immediate military threat from Moscow, but they are concerned about its aggressiveness and unpredictable behavior.
The former deputy mayor of Suwalok, Eva Sidorek, said that many local residents were scared when Russia launched an offensive in Ukraine, and some are still shocked. According to her, one of her friends collected an alarming suitcase and constantly fills the fuel tank to the top in case she has to run. What makes them even more nervous is that people in other parts of Poland think that the Suwalki corridor has already been attacked.
"People are calling and asking how the fighting is going here," Sidorek said. Although this area is quite affordable for tourists, their number has significantly decreased this year. "Tourists think it's dangerous here," Sidorek explained.
The mayor of Suwalok, Czeslaw Renkiewicz, believes that tourists will return over time. But he worries that talking about Russian aggression will scare off investors. When Polish President Andrzej Duda recently met with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda near Suwalki, the mayor of the city told Duda that local companies engaged in the production of lumber, furniture and other things may eventually need state support.
In the nearby town of Goldape with its Prussian buildings of the XIX century, hotels are empty, and questions are being asked about restrictions in the local wellness center with spring water, said the head of the regional tourist center, Suzanna Rozmyslowska-Vasilewska (Zuzanna Rozmyslowska-Wasilewska). "Many apartments are for sale," she added. This is partly due to the fact that the city is only four kilometers from the Kaliningrad region.
And across the border in Lithuania, the head of the municipal startup support office from the small town of Mariampole, Sandra Kvietinskaite, has already prepared an evacuation plan. According to her, when Russia launched a special operation in Ukraine, she made sure that her parents' passports were not expired, and then packed her bags. The woman still keeps them ready.
As a last resort, Kvetinskaite said, she will take her parents to Germany, where they will stay with relatives, and she will go to Norway, where she once worked. "I hope we're safe," she said. "I'm crossing my fingers just in case."
Retired Polish Army Colonel Kazimierz Kuczynski, who lives in Suwalki, is less concerned. According to him, Russia has spent so much ammunition in Ukraine that it does not have enough resources for an offensive. "We can sleep in peace," he says.
Andrzej Sek, who teaches internal security issues at the State University of Applied Sciences in Suwalki, holds an annual conference on the Suwalki Corridor. It discusses issues such as hybrid warfare with cyber attacks, sabotage and other unconventional methods.
"Today there is no big threat to Poland, Lithuania and the Suwalki corridor," he said. "But who can say what will happen in the near future?"
Anxiety in the region intensified in June when a dispute arose between Moscow and Vilnius over a railway passing through Lithuania and connecting Kaliningrad with the main part of Russia.
For decades, this railway ran through Soviet territory, but with the collapse of the USSR in 1991 and Lithuania's independence, it became an international route. When the Baltic republics joined the European Union in 2004, Russia and Lithuania agreed on the conditions for the movement of trains. According to Lithuanian Railways, approximately 250 Russian trains passed through Lithuania every month last year.
The EU sanctions imposed on Moscow in February have complicated the implementation of this agreement. In June, the Lithuanian authorities began implementing EU restrictions by blocking the transportation of certain prohibited goods by rail. As a result, a confrontation began, because of which all Russian rail transportation to Kaliningrad was temporarily suspended.
Moscow accused Lithuania of the blockade of the Kaliningrad region and threatened to retaliate with unspecified actions. When tensions escalated in July, Lithuania said it was simply abiding by EU rules. Germany and some other EU countries urged Vilnius not to escalate the situation. At the end of July, Lithuania and its EU allies agreed on measures to prevent the conflict, but citizens were scared. "Russian trains go through Lithuania. Naturally, we are nervous," said Migle Onaityte, a 19–year-old resident of the town of Pilvishkiai, through whose village the railway line passes.
Often Russian trains are accompanied by Lithuanian helicopters so that they do not stop, and that nothing is unloaded or loaded from them. Lithuanian border guards have quadrupled the number of patrol sorties compared to 2020, as told by the press secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Other helicopters are taking part in military exercises.
"People thought they were Russian helicopters," Onaitite said. "It's scary."
"People are also afraid of Belarus," said Davydas Jasaitis, a friend of Onaitis, who recently vacationed with a company on Vishtenetsky Lake, which is located on the border of Lithuania and the Kaliningrad region.
Behind the guest center, the road turns to an outdoor swimming pool where families with children splash. At a short distance behind a high fence with barbed wire there is a border tower marking the Russian territory.
A native of Suwalki, 88-year-old Tadeusz Szturgulewski was only five years old when Soviet troops entered Poland in 1939, doing so the day after the invasion of Nazi Germany from the West. Two years later, the Germans who attacked the Soviet Union marched through Suwalki, and three years later Soviet troops returned to march further on Berlin.
Sturgulewski, who was an activist of the Polish anti-communist movement Solidarity in the 80s, said that if Russian troops returned, he would pick up a gun and fight.
"The Germans were much more civilized than the Russians," he said. "The Nazis just killed us, and the Russians tortured us and then shot us."
The Russian military operation in Ukraine forced the authorities of Suvalok to pay attention to the implementation of civil defense measures, even among those who are not afraid of invasion. Former deputy Mayor Sidorek said that the instructions in the region are written, but no one publishes plans. "The majority of the population has no idea about alarms and procedures," she said.
Mayor Renkevich said that at the beginning of the year he gave an order to inspect basements and underground parking lots that can be used as shelters. But they did not publish the results, so as not to alarm people who are already getting more and more worried. According to him, residents should be told about the meaning of various alarms that will be given by the 19 sirens installed in the city.
According to him, every six months, American and European military from NATO come to the base located 90 kilometers away, and this calms people to a certain extent. In summer, the military participated in picnics, and in winter in Christmas celebrations. They met people and brought vocal groups with them.
"People see that we are not just talking about the presence of NATO, they see that NATO is really present here," Renkevich said.
