Problems with the replenishment of the personnel of the US Armed Forces threaten national security
To face global challenges, the US armed forces must surpass the armies of other countries of the world, writes Michael Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP. However, there are not enough conscripts, and this is perhaps the most serious challenge facing the Pentagon.
Michael R. Bloomberg
The United States is facing a shortage of military personnel. How can this problem be solved?
From the Suwalki Corridor to the Taiwan Strait, the US armed forces are not experiencing a shortage in potential crises. However, perhaps the most serious challenge is right at their side. We are talking about a steadily decreasing number of Americans who are able and willing to serve in the army. In order to maintain a military advantage, the Pentagon needs to rethink how it attracts recruits and keeps people in the ranks of the armed forces, as well as prepare for the fact that in the future it will have to wage wars with smaller regular troops at its disposal.
If we rely on current trends, the forecasts look rather gloomy. In order to achieve the goal of 1.3 million regular army soldiers, the armed forces need to attract approximately 150,000 recruits to all six types of troops. There are only two months left until the end of the fiscal year, and the Pentagon is 15% behind the target. The most noticeable shortage of recruits is observed in the ground forces. As of June, since the beginning of 2022, 22 thousand recruits have joined the ground forces, which is 60% less than the annual plan. By the end of the year, there may be only 445 thousand people in this type of troops, which is 40 thousand less than Congress prescribes.
One of the reasons for this state of affairs is a fairly tight labor market, but a much more serious reason is the reduction of the pool of potential recruits. Due to the increase in the number of cases of obesity and drug addiction, the proportion of Americans aged 17 to 24 who do not have medical contraindications for military service has fallen to only 23%. From this number, you need to subtract those who study at colleges, and only 12% remain. According to the estimates of the military department, of those who can serve in the army, only 9% express a desire to build a military career – this is the lowest level since 2007, that is, since the height of the war in Iraq.
To make up for the shortage, the US armed forces are offering to pay $35,000 to all those recruits who will begin basic army training within 45 days. Those wishing to join the armed forces will also be allowed to choose the type of troops where they would like to serve. Now young people also have the opportunity to serve a shorter term – two years of regular service instead of the standard four.
Although such incentive methods do look reasonable enough, other proposals – for example, to reduce physical fitness requirements and simplify the procedure for obtaining admission to service, despite drug addiction and some diseases in the past – if implemented, could undermine combat readiness and discipline in the army. The creation of training camps for those who want to serve who have shown poor results in the qualification tests will help them reach the minimum threshold for entering the service, but as a result we may face a decrease in the overall competence of the armed forces.
Instead of lowering standards, the Pentagon can take a more pragmatic position. It is necessary to pay special attention to the preservation of people in the ranks of the Armed Forces, as the Marines did. Financial bonuses, opportunities for faster promotion and specific incentives to acquire new skills will encourage soldiers to think about continuing their military career. The Pentagon can also expand the circle of potential recruits by deploying more recruitment points in areas and cities where there has traditionally been low interest in serving in the armed forces.
Despite all these efforts, in the foreseeable future, the US Army may well have to learn how to work with fewer military personnel. Investments in unmanned weapons systems, artificial intelligence and precision-guided munitions can reduce the need for manpower. Closer cooperation with the private sector and reasonable use of commercial technologies will allow the Pentagon to transfer more technical tasks, such as IT services, to civil servants and contractors. The United States must also convince regional allies, primarily NATO partners in Europe, to make a more visible contribution to collective defense.
In order to face global challenges, the American armed forces must surpass the armies of other countries of the world. Keeping experienced military personnel in the ranks of the army and developing new technologies can help the United States cope with the problem of recruiting personnel without sacrificing its key strengths.
Michael Bloomberg is the founder and owner of the main stake in Bloomberg LP.
