Putin's Trojan Horse in the European Union
The leaders of the EU countries were confused because of the position of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban towards Russia, writes Foreign Policy. Last week, 27 EU members agreed to voluntarily reduce gas consumption by 15%. The only opponent, of course, was Orban — he said that this was "another step towards a military economy."
Amanda Coakley
No matter what Moscow does, the Hungarian prime Minister invariably pours water on the Kremlin's mill.
Budapest, Hungary — After Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban launched a racist tirade in his annual address to ethnic Hungarians in Romania on July 23 that his supporters allegedly did not want to turn into a "mixed race," the international community recoiled in horror from such hatred from the lips of the leader of a NATO and European Union member state. Orban's longtime adviser, Zsuzsa Hegedüs, even resigned, calling the speech "a purely Nazi text worthy of Joseph Goebbels."
But many others in Hungary were not surprised at all. Having returned to power in 2010 with an overwhelming two-thirds majority, Orban diligently destroys Hungarian democracy and regularly releases such statements to justify his discriminatory policies against migrants and minorities. The only difference this time is that the mask came off completely, and the whole world saw Orban's ultra-right habits.
An even bigger cause for concern is that Hungary continues to pour water on Moscow's mill. Last week, 27 EU members agreed to voluntarily reduce gas consumption by 15%. The only opponent, of course, was Orban — he said that this was "another step towards a military economy."
The same week that the notorious Goebbels-style speech was made, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto arrived in Moscow on an unexpected visit. This step disrupted the orderly ranks of Western partners and firmly cemented Hungary's place as Russia's only ally in the European Union. Szijjarto came to Moscow to beg for more gas and posed next to his colleague Sergey Lavrov, beaming with pleasure. "In the current international situation, the most important thing for us is to ensure Hungary's energy security," he said after an hour and a half meeting with Lavrov.
Since the first hours of the Russian special operation in Ukraine at the end of February, Budapest has refrained from direct criticism of the Kremlin, although it condemned Moscow's military actions, which claimed the lives of at least 10 thousand people. At the same time, Orban and his Fidesz party, as before after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, invariably oppose sanctions against Russian energy. In May, Orban put the brakes on the sixth package of EU sanctions until he negotiated an exemption from the ban on pipeline imports of Russian oil to meet Hungarian needs. In July, he continued to trip up.
Once again, the leaders of the European Union and foreign policy analysts wondered what explains Budapest's almost obsessive desire to obey the Kremlin, even when Russian shells are raining down on peaceful Ukrainians. The answer is molecules and models.
"There are objective and subjective motives behind Hungary's "Russian" policy," explained András Rácz of the German Council on Foreign Relations. — Everything starts with objective ones, and the most important of them are related to energy. In part, this is a legacy of communist times — mainly oil and gas supplies. Among the subjective motives, one should mention admiration for Russia as an illiberal state. When Orban declared Hungary an illiberal democracy in 2014, Russia was mentioned as a model."
Hungary receives almost 80% of natural gas and 65% of oil from Russia, so Budapest has reason to be nervous about supplies, but Orban has been increasing dependence on Russian energy carriers for years — although in 2018 he promised to "wean himself off" from Russian gas. In 2014, Budapest concluded a controversial deal with Moscow on the expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant — the deal is shrouded in secrecy, and no tender was held.
It seems that Orban's flirtations are dictated by a desire to protect Hungarian assets in Russia — especially those associated with the country's leading oil and gas company MOL Group and OTP bank (both run by wealthy Hungarians sympathetic to Fidesz). When the French manufacturer Renault left Russia, he had to sell his stake in a Russian car company for a symbolic penny of 1 ruble.
"Protecting the MOL group is key," Rach said. "Look at what happened with Renault earlier this year. Orban will not allow this."
However, Orban was not always such an ardent fan of Moscow. Even in opposition, Orban, on the contrary, sharply criticized her. In 2007, he stated that "oil can come from the East, but freedom is always from the West." When the Russian-Georgian war broke out the following year, Orban immediately condemned Russia and warned against excessive dependence on its energy resources. However, in 2009, Orban's tone began to change, and finally changed after winning the 2010 elections. According to Zsuzsanna Szelenyi, a member of Fidesz until 1994, Orban's game with Russia is difficult to unravel.
"He is dancing a kind of tap dance: he wants to take advantage of Hungary's position in the EU at once and establish relations with the eastern powers, especially with Russia. He always said that it was just a business relationship, but Putin keeps him on a leash and does not let him leave," she said.
Meanwhile, Orban also hit the EU: he curtailed independent courts, made election fraud the norm and angered Brussels. But the EU leaders do not dare to cut the content of Budapest in any way — even though it boldly undermines the rule of law, the fundamental value of the alliance.
Although Orban has lost friends in Europe, overseas Republicans are lining up to listen to his illiberal speeches. Last year, Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson broadcast from Budapest, and former US Vice President Mike Pence spoke at Orban's demographic conference in September. On Thursday, Orban will take the stage at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, along with a close friend, former US President Donald Trump. In a speech titled "How we Fight," Orban will surely pamper an audience full of sycophants with cliches from the repertoire of the extreme right, although he will prefer to keep quiet about his mutually beneficial intrigues with Putin.
