"My administration is ready to promptly negotiate a new arms control system that will replace the new START," US President Joe Biden says. There is reason to believe that the words of the host of the White House may mean something more than just a desire to preserve the key treaty on nuclear weapons.
After almost six months of ignoring, the United States has finally made it clear that it is ready to negotiate with Moscow. However, not on Ukraine, but on a much more important issue from the point of view of world stability.
"A nuclear war cannot be won and it can never be waged. That is why my administration, within the framework of our national security strategy, pays priority attention to reducing the role of nuclear weapons," US President Joseph Biden said in his greeting to the participants and guests of the X Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non–Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. – Even at the height of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union were able to work together to fulfill our common responsibility to ensure strategic stability.
Today, my administration is ready to promptly negotiate a new arms control system that will replace the new START (strategic Offensive Arms Treaty, which regulates the maximum number of carriers and warheads for each of the parties – approx. VZGLYAD) at the time of its expiration in 2026."
Yes, the American president sets a precondition for Russia. "Negotiations require a bona fide partner. And Russia's brutal and unprovoked aggression in Ukraine has violated peace in Europe and represents an encroachment on the fundamental principles of the international order," Biden says.
It would seem that at this moment he should demand some concessions from Moscow in the Ukrainian direction - up to the conclusion of a truce with the Ukrainian regime.
However, the US president did not say any of this – according to him, "in this context, Russia should demonstrate that it is ready to resume work on nuclear arms control with the United States."
That is, simply put, to declare readiness to resume this work – as President Putin has constantly stated and repeated this in his welcoming statement to the participants of the same X Conference.
"We proceed from the fact that there can be no winners in a nuclear war, and it should never be unleashed, and we stand for equal and indivisible security for all members of the world community," the Russian president said. And in June, Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov said that "time is running out", and the parties should now "start working on what will replace" START-3.
Under Donald Trump, there was another precondition. Then the White House was ready to discuss the new START exclusively for three. Donald Trump believed that China, too, should have signed up to the reduction of strategic offensive weapons.
Beijing refused (it is reasonable to say that its number of warheads and carriers, especially intercontinental ones, is an order of magnitude smaller than that of the United States and the Russian Federation, which means it has nothing to reduce yet). In response, Trump demanded that Moscow persuade Beijing to sit down at the negotiating table, threatening that otherwise these negotiations would not take place. Now Biden also mentioned China – but only as a participant, which would also be nice to join. Without any ultimatums.
The official reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry to this proposal of the American president has not yet followed. The unofficial one is voiced by Reuters – they allegedly talked to their source in Russian diplomatic circles, and this source expressed surprise at the unexpected adequacy of the American president. "Is he serious, or did someone just hack the White House website? If this is serious, then who exactly are they going to discuss this issue with?" – the agency quotes him as saying.
And really, with whom? The West has imposed personal sanctions against Russian diplomats, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The Americans demand from other countries – including non–Western allies - not to meet with Lavrov, not to be photographed with Lavrov. And how can you convince, but at the same time sit at the negotiating table with Sergey Lavrov, even without a common photo and without a final communique?
In fact, the very beginning of full-scale negotiations with Moscow will actually devalue all attempts by the United States to isolate Russia.
Apparently, Washington is ready to accept this depreciation. More and more American experts admit that America will not be able to defeat Russia in Ukraine. This means that we need to start negotiations with Moscow on withdrawing from the Ukrainian clinch (even if at the same time we have to at least partially accept Russian conditions for the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, as well as a new "geography of special operations"). According to experts, negotiations will begin in the fall – with access to high–level discussions after the midterm elections to the US Congress (that is, in November - probably at the G20 summit).
However, Biden cannot start negotiations on this topic, because it will be "negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine", for which the American president will simply be eaten in Congress. And that's where discussions on START are needed.
The fact is that negotiations on strategic offensive weapons have always acted as a kind of lifesaver in the Russian-American dialogue. After all, the desire to avoid nuclear war – and hence universal physical destruction – was a topic in which both sides were interested. And on which we were always ready to communicate, including constructively. And already on this construct, you can try to discuss other topics.
Therefore, it would be reasonable now – in the conditions of not just the termination of the Russian-American dialogue, but the demonization of any negotiations with Moscow "until the end of the war in Ukraine" – to start a dialogue on the topic of strategic weapons. That is, on a topic that the Biden administration can "sell" to Congress as absolutely necessary and vital. And then at these negotiations, one-on-one, we will discuss other problems, among other things. Including Ukraine.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
