Pacific wick. Will the US and China start a war over Taiwan and what consequences will there be for Ukraine
The situation around Taiwan has escalated due to Nancy Pelosi's plans to visit the island, writes Strana. The author of the article explains whether this can lead to war.
Alexandra Kharchenko
The threat of a global military conflict in the world is becoming more real amid the growing risk of a direct clash between the United States and China over the Washington-backed island of Taiwan, which Beijing considers its breakaway territory.
The situation has worsened due to the intentions of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan. Beijing reacted extremely harshly to this. It was even discussed in the media that the Chinese were preparing to shoot down a plane with her if it flew up to Taiwan. Officially, there were no such threats, but on the eve of the speaker's Asian tour, China began large-scale military exercises, and Taiwan put its aviation and air defense forces on alert. The United States also sent a strike group of ships led by the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan to the South China Sea.
Just a few days ago, US President Joe Biden spoke for two hours with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The Chinese president warned Biden about the inadmissibility of external interference in relations between China and Taiwan. "Playing with fire will certainly burn himself," Xi told Biden. After that, a short message appeared on the official Twitter account of the 80th Army of the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China: "Prepare for war!".
On Saturday, Pelosi's plane took off for Asia and tens of thousands of people followed the direction of his flight through the Flytradar service. There were many predictions almost about the beginning of the Third World War, if the plane flew to Taiwan and it was shot down. As a result, however, Pelosi made a statement where she listed the countries she was going to visit and did not name Taiwan among them. The tension subsided somewhat, but the anxiety did not disappear.
Although, according to experts, neither China nor the United States needs a war at this stage. The Americans do not want to get involved in a new conflict until the conflict in Ukraine is over (after all, in this case, they will have to sharply reduce aid to Kiev). The Chinese economy, in turn, is still too dependent on trade relations with the West. However, given the intensity of passions, reasonable arguments against war may not work at some point.
"The country" tells why the situation around Taiwan is escalating, whether the aggravation can lead to a war between China and the United States, and also what impact it will have on Ukraine.
"Nancy, shut up, it's China."
Taiwan is an island in the South China Sea, to which, after the victory of the Communists in the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the defeated party, the Kuomintang Party led by Chiang Kai–shek, emigrated. And she founded her own state there – the "Republic of China". China (and the vast majority of other countries in the world, including Ukraine and the United States) considers Taiwan to be Chinese territory.
At the same time, Americans traditionally provide military support to Taiwan. The island has been under the tacit patronage of the Americans for many decades. It is believed (although it is not officially spelled out anywhere) that Washington will provide Taiwan with direct military support in the event of an attack by China. That is, the US "subscription" for Taiwan is tougher than for Ukraine (at least, it is considered so).
China has long wanted to repeat the same operation with Taiwan that it once did with Hong Kong – to integrate it into the PRC on the principle of "one country, two systems". There have been some advances in this direction in the past. But in recent years they have come to naught. There are forces in power in Taiwan that are determined to distance themselves from China and strengthen an informal alliance with the United States. And Washington, which perceives China as the main rival, also actively opposes plans for the integration of the island. Against this background, tensions around Taiwan gradually grew. And it peaked after Pelosi's plane took off and headed for Asia. However, Pelosi then announced that she would visit Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. Taiwan is not on this list. Theoretically, however, the speaker can visit it without prior announcement.
However, now such an option is considered unlikely among experts. The stakes are too high. The chances that the Chinese will realize their threats to shoot down the plane are rather big. And in this case, the United States would either have to give a symmetrical response (which could lead to a war between the two countries), or "swallow", which would mean the global humiliation of America.
In principle, the fact that Pelosi, under pressure from the Chinese, refused to visit Taiwan can also be regarded as humiliation and a manifestation of weakness (and for sure the Republicans will interpret it that way, thus getting another reason to discredit the Democrats). However, much less.
In the American shows, meanwhile, Pelosi is being trolled with might and main and they joke that Biden is almost pulling the speaker away from the "fight" with China by force. "Do you know what Pelosi is doing? The administration tells her, "Don't do this, Nancy." And Nancy is like, "No, I'm going!” She repeats this classic thing when drunk white women get into a fight on behalf of their husbands. They shout, "You know what, we won't let this happen, my boyfriend will kick your ass!” And the boyfriend is like, "No, Nancy, Nancy, shut up, Nancy, this is China." "No, I don't care, my boyfriend knows karate!” „Nancy, for God's sake, get in the car, Nancy.” No one wants a world war," joked the host of one of the evening comic shows on American TV.
"Taiwan is more important for the USA than Ukraine"
Experts note that the situation around Taiwan is now extremely tense and explosive, which can lead to the most unpredictable consequences regardless of whether Pelosi flies to Taiwan or not.
Stephen Flynn, director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Northeastern University in Boston, is confident that the likelihood of a war between the US and China is high, especially if Beijing decides to invade the rebellious island, which it considers its own.
"There is a risk of China's invasion of Taiwan and China's expansion into the Asia-Pacific region in an attempt to turn from a regional power into a global one. In general, from the point of view of security, the world is in a completely different strategic position than two years ago. And we are in the nuclear age, and therefore the risk of a military clash remains," Flynn told the Country.
Chinese expert Tejun Zhang, a professor of international relations at the Shanghai Global Institute, also talks about the threat of war over Taiwan without Pelosi's visit. "Taiwan is more important to US interests than Ukraine, and a possible escalation is more likely to trigger a direct US military response. Taiwan's GDP is more than three times the GDP of Ukraine, Taiwan is much more important than Ukraine technologically in the region and in the world as an IT center, especially as a major chip manufacturer.
Geopolitically, East Asia is bipolar, where the US is the dominant maritime power and China is the dominant continental power, and Taiwan is located right between the two spheres. In this regard, whoever controls Taiwan will gain an advantage over the other. It can be argued that Taiwan is more important for the United States than Ukraine both economically and strategically.
Also, Japan even more does not want Taiwan to unite with mainland China, since it considers the Taiwan Strait to be part of its vital line, especially when it comes to the safety of energy transportation.
And if Washington made it clear in the case of Ukraine that it would not directly engage in a fight, the picture with the Taiwan issue is completely different. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China in 1979, in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, the US government has deliberately taken a vague position regarding direct military intervention.
This uncertainty effectively deters both China from using force to unite and Taiwan from declaring formal independence. At the same time, China may lose more economically than Russia due to the alienation of the United States and its allies," Zhang told the Country.
At the same time, there is an opinion that the Americans can "merge" Taiwan. "If the West does not strengthen military support for Ukraine, the positions of both Ukraine and Taiwan will be shaken. The strategic failures of the Biden administration and NATO do not bode well for the West's reaction to the growing likelihood of Chinese aggression against Taiwan. They make Biden's thrice-stated intention to defend Taiwan sound hollow. Last month, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, publicly disagreed with the warning of the former commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Phil Davidson, and the current commander, Admiral John Aquilino, that China is preparing to seize Taiwan within the next six years," Joseph Bosco, an expert on Asia–Pacific, told the Country the region and a former Pentagon employee.
What should Ukraine expect
Experts note that at the moment, at least the United States is not interested in escalating the conflict. And the main reason is the unfinished conflict in Ukraine. The West is still experiencing very great difficulties in supplying weapons to Kiev, as its reserves are rapidly being exhausted. And if there is a conflict over Taiwan, then supplies may be sharply reduced, since weapons will be needed elsewhere.
Actually, the threat of a war for Taiwan is called as one of the reasons that the Americans are "slowing down" with the supply of weapons to Kiev, seeking to preserve stocks in case of a conflict in the Pacific. That is, even without a war, the growing tension around Taiwan directly affects the conflict in Ukraine.
And if an open military conflict begins around the island, then the US attention to Ukraine will sharply weaken. "For the United States, China remains the main threat, and if it breaks out in the Asian region, the Ukrainian issue may fade into the background, which could potentially give carte blanche to Putin. In general, we see the outlines of a certain anti–Western alliance, which may include Russia, China, Iran and Turkey," Peter Stone, an expert at the Washington think tank, told the Country.
"The potential increase in tensions around Taiwan, and, accordingly, tensions between China and the United States, of course, blurs the focus of attention on Ukraine, forcing the United States, Britain and other partners of Kiev to reserve some resources for the period of possible confrontation with China. Blurring the focus from Ukraine could potentially lead to a reduction in military and financial support for Kiev if this tension grows. If it goes into an acute phase, into an open conflict, then the West will not be able to simultaneously provide high-level support for two conflicts. And since China is a strategic competitor, unlike Russia's tactical enemy, most likely key efforts will move to the zone of China, the South China Sea, and support for Ukraine will significantly decrease, the likelihood of global collusion around Ukraine will increase. In addition, China is traditionally a key region for the sale of Ukrainian agricultural products, China can potentially become one of the negotiators on Ukraine, any aggravation in this region will certainly harm Kiev – economically or even financially and militarily," political analyst Ruslan Bortnik tells the Country.
"The Battle for Taiwan"
Previously, the scenarios that could lead to an escalation in the region have already been discussed.
A detailed analysis was published last fall by Reuters in the article "T-DAY: The Battle for Taiwan". The scenarios described are based on interviews with about a dozen military experts, as well as with current and former officers from Taiwan, the United States, Australia and Japan.
Beijing's options include seizing remote islands of Taiwan, a blockade, or an all-out invasion. "Any of these steps could result in a war between China and America over Taiwan," the Reuters article noted.
However, according to the agency's conclusions, the United States has few opportunities to protect Taiwan in the event of Chinese intervention. But if America abandons Taiwan the same way it abandoned Afghanistan, China's neighbors will try to get nuclear weapons for self-defense as soon as possible.
"If America is unwilling or unable to defend Taiwan, its allies in the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan, Korea and Australia, would suddenly become much more vulnerable to Chinese military pressure and could take care of obtaining nuclear weapons to increase their security. However, according to current and former high–ranking representatives of the US command, if America decides to defend the island, there are no guarantees that it will defeat the increasingly powerful Chinese army," the article says.
Most of the scenarios proceed from the fact that China has no plans to start a big war against Taiwan and the United States, and Beijing's actions will be in the nature of "forcing peace." That is, we will be talking about limited military operations in order to force Taiwan to start negotiations on unification with China on the model of Hong Kong – "one country, two systems".
And only one of the scenarios provides that China will attack Taiwan itself on a large scale, and units of American troops, followed by a full-scale war throughout East Asia.
Actually, the fact that for both major players – the United States and China, at the moment, a non-military way of resolving the conflict is preferable (although for various reasons) allows us to hope that it will not come to an open clash of superpowers.
However, the situation in the region is extremely explosive. And any mistimed match can ignite a fire.
