The head of Roscosmos, Yuri Borisov, at a meeting with Vladimir Putin, announced Russia's withdrawal from the International Space Station project after 2024. It is assumed that by this time Russia will already begin forming its own space station in orbit. How inevitable is this decision and why is it so difficult to cut off US-Russian space cooperation?
First of all, it is worth paying attention to what exactly the head of Roscosmos, Yuri Borisov, said: "Vladimir Vladimirovich, you know that we are working within the framework of international cooperation on the International Space Station. Of course, we will fulfill all our obligations to our partners, but the decision and withdrawal from this station after 2024 have been made. I think that by this time we will begin to form a Russian orbital station."
You can 't leave the chopping
In fact, you should not approach this statement so categorically and see in it a complete break and the end of the International Space Station project right now. And yes, this does not even mean that with the chimes striking from 2023 to 2024, Russian cosmonauts will detach their modules from the station and send them to Earth. No, this is just a phrase that until 2024 Russia will fully fulfill all its obligations in the International Space Station project, and after that a gradual and controlled exit will begin.
When? But this is a difficult question. This may be in 2025, and in 2027, and in general closer to the time of the general completion of work on the ISS project.
Borisov, most likely, is talking not so much about the closure, as about the fact that in the future Russia is betting on a national station, as China did. Unfortunately, in the coming years, this will become the leitmotif of many scientific and space projects. And the main reason for this was the actions of European politicians in the last few months. The German side turned off the eROSITA telescope at the Russian Spektr-RG orbital observatory, and the European Space Agency froze and actually buried the ExoMars-2022 mission already ready for launch.
Yes, space has always been full of politics, but until 2022, politicians did not break what was already built in the industry. Moreover, we can recall the times that clearly showed that military confrontation is one thing, and space is completely different.
The Soyuz-Apollo program was approved in May 1972, when the most active phase of the "Easter Offensive" of North Vietnam was underway, and it was implemented in 1975, almost immediately after the victory of the North Vietnamese troops. Just compare this with the decision not to launch the European-Russian ExoMars mission, in which thousands of hours of specialist labor and hundreds of millions of dollars were invested.
Cooperation on the International Space Station has not ended only because there is actually "divorce impossible".
Too high degree of integration does not allow the Russian and international segments of the space station to exist separately. Therefore, the ISS survived rather in spite of.
It is precisely such political decisions that are pushing Russia to create a national space station, which will not be turned off due to political differences. Alas, there is no other scenario for the development of events here yet.
Mills grind slowly
No, it is clear that the worst case scenario can happen. Indeed, Russia will withdraw from the International Space Station project in 2024. But such a development of events has a clear sequence of actions. This is an international project – and the way out of it will be as follows.
In order for the decision to withdraw from the ISS program to take effect, an order of the government of the Russian Federation is necessary, which also cannot appear from scratch. The order is being prepared on the basis of documents collected by the Roscosmos State Corporation. And it, in turn, is initiated by the order of the General director. After that, Roscosmos specialists from various departments, including international and manned flights, collect the motivation part and send it to the government for a decision.
Yes, the president's visa is also required based on the government's decision. And the solution itself should be sent to the ISS partners no earlier than a year before the start of the exit process.
Therefore, what Borisov has said so far is only a declaration of a possible solution, and it is still unclear when it will begin to be implemented. Naturally, Roscosmos specialists understand the danger of leaving too early. If the Russian national station is not ready by this time, there will be a serious gap in manned flights. And its delay may even break the entire Russian manned program.
Therefore, most likely, so far this is just a declaration of the need to create your own station, what really needs to be done, the need to allocate additional funding for this project (there is no such thing in the Federal Space Program 2016-2025)
and a warning to partners about the need to sit down at the negotiating table in 2023 for normal continuation of work.
It is still premature to bury the International Space Station. This is a unique project, which employs first-class specialists, scientists and cosmonauts from many countries.
If there is at least some opportunity to get the maximum from the ISS, it must be implemented, despite political differences. To conduct experiments, to expand the scientific program, to carry tourists. Given the current political situation, it may turn out that such a large-scale international project may never be repeated again in human history. Or at least in the coming decades.
Mikhail Kotov
