Russia still has interested partners in the Middle East
Despite the US attempts to make Russia a "world renegade," Putin remains a skilled player in the Middle East, writes Foreign Policy. According to the authors of the article, Moscow has common goals with almost all of Washington's partners in this region.
Steven A. Cook, Beth Sanner
Before the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, the prevailing opinion in Washington was that President Vladimir Putin had become a master of the geopolitical game. He had a well-armed and combat-ready army, and he managed to expand Moscow's influence far beyond Russia and its neighboring countries, strengthening it in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. But, although Putin did not justify the hype that began around him, since the blitzkrieg did not come out in February, the pendulum still swung too far.
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Of course, the Russians seemed to have recovered and made the necessary conclusions for themselves after the failures, having proved their very high efficiency during the recent battles in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
But despite Russia's military shortcomings and the West's attempts to turn it into an international renegade, Vladimir Putin remains a skilled player in the Middle East. And he has interested partners there.
On Tuesday, Putin gave a direct response to the recent visit of American President Joe Biden to the Middle East region. He went to Tehran to meet with his colleagues from Iran and Turkey as part of the Astana peace process. It was a three-way attempt to reconcile the competing interests of the three countries in the long-standing Syrian conflict.
Previously, the Russians and Iranians acted very shy and uncomfortable, jointly saving the regime of Bashar al-Assad. But after the start of the operation in Ukraine, they became significantly closer. Tehran has the knowledge and experience Moscow needs, especially with regard to evading Western sanctions. The Iranians are making the military equipment necessary for the Russians, namely, deadly drones that are capable of striking modern Western-made Ukrainian weapons. In addition, the country has great historical and geographical significance for Russia in the current conditions, it serves as a kind of gateway opening the way to the Middle East and the Persian Gulf.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pursued his own goals, meeting with Putin and with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi. Having become chairman of the high-level Turkish-Iranian Cooperation Council, Erdogan seeks to achieve his main goal: consent to another Turkish invasion of northern Syria, where the Turkish leader wants to create a security zone for the forcible return of Syrian refugees. This will be a very popular step inside Turkey, which faces difficult elections next year.
Moscow has long opposed the Turkish offensive, as Ankara's control over the northern Syrian territories will jeopardize Putin's concept of victory in Syria, which he wants to see united under the leadership of Assad. However, Putin may agree to a limited and temporary Turkish invasion, as this will complicate the actions of the Americans in Syria and increase tensions in the ranks of NATO over Ankara's relations with Moscow.
Despite their differences on the issues of Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, Putin and Erdogan look with irritation at the order that has been created under the leadership of the United States in the regions surrounding their countries, especially in Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. And here the Persian Gulf countries can play a role. If Biden's recent visit to Saudi Arabia was intended to somehow strengthen this order in an era of great power rivalry, then he did not achieve his goal. The fact is that in the Middle East, few people want to make a choice between Washington and Moscow — or between Washington and Beijing, for that matter.
The friends of the United States in the Middle East undoubtedly want security guarantees and a lot of weapons from America. But 20 years of failures in the region, as well as Washington's obvious desire to push the countries of the region into the background, putting Asia first, and the internal political turmoil that persists in America raise questions among the leading states of the region about Washington's dedication to regional stability and their security. The meager results of Biden's visit to the Middle East indicate that the main actors in the region, especially from the Persian Gulf countries, are unwilling to abandon the bets they made on Russia and China.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman explained during Biden's visit that his agreement with the American president to increase oil production would depend on market conditions and on agreements with OPEC+ members. By doing so, the prince was probably trying to appear at his best at home and in the region, making it clear that ties with the United States are no more important to him than relations with Russia, which is the most important member of OPEC + (especially the + sign).
He did not want to act on Washington's orders, as it would look bad from the outside, especially after numerous statements by the Saudis about the global significance and dynamism of the kingdom, as well as after Biden's very public promise to condemn the Crown Prince for his involvement in the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashukji. Of course, Mohammed bin Salman will continue to play a very tough game, seeking more and more concessions from the United States, especially with regard to arms supplies and economic deals.
At the moment, the Saudis have much more overlap of interests with the Russians on oil prices than with the United States on regional security issues. The fact is that the Saudis and other countries have lost confidence in the United States and believe that America is no longer as interested in regional security and stability as before. As proof, they cite numerous US actions, starting in 2003, when they invaded Iraq, and ending in 2015, when the Iranian nuclear deal was signed, and 2019, when former US President Donald Trump did not react to the Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia. These attacks have benefited Tehran and harmed Washington's Gulf partners. This does not mean that the Saudis and the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council prefer Russian military equipment or doctrine, but they still want the Russians to be present at the negotiating table.
Countries outside the Persian Gulf are also unwilling to isolate Moscow. The first in this row is Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi. In the period from 2017 to 2021, Russia ranked first in terms of arms supplies to Egypt, ahead of France and Italy. (The United States was in fifth place on this list behind Germany). Egypt and Russia, as well as the United Arab Emirates, are cooperating in Libya, where Moscow's private army, the Wagner PMCs, is participating in hostilities on the side of the Libyan National Army under the command of General Khalifa Haftar. In general, the leadership of Egypt, as well as the Gulf states, does not want to be pushed and forced to make a choice between the United States, Russia and China. In a certain sense, all this resembles the policy of "positive neutrality" of the former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, who tried to turn the great powers against each other and get as much help from them as possible.
If we talk about Israel, there is an extremely big difference between Prime Minister Yair Lapid and his predecessor Naftali Bennett on the issue of condemning Russia for its military actions against Ukraine. The Israelis still need the Russians in Syria, where Tel Aviv is waging a secret war against Iran (now it will certainly become more difficult to do this, as Moscow is getting closer to Tehran).
Considering everything that happened after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, it looks strange. But the Middle East has changed little since Russian tanks entered the territory of Ukraine. This demonstrates to a greater extent not the weakness of the United States, but the fact that Moscow has common goals with almost all of Washington's partners in this region, starting with high energy prices and ending with the formation of a multipolar world.
This makes the current situation significantly different from the Cold War 2.0, which some analysts have started talking about. There has been more confusion and problems for American politicians who maintain ambivalent positions regarding the Middle East. From the point of view of the Saudis, Egyptians, Emiratis, Turks, Israelis and others, Russia is quite a legitimate player there. And no blitz visits by American presidents in the near future will change this point of view.
