Finnish historian: The West should think about the possibility of military intervention in the situation in Ukraine
An indirect war with Russia in the long run will not bring the West the desired result, writes Verkkoutiset. This opinion was expressed on Twitter by a Finnish military historian. He believes that sooner or later — if there is a goal to win — the EU or NATO countries should consider the possibility of direct military intervention in the situation in Ukraine.
Arno Rydman
Jussi Jalonen, a specialist in military history, believes that Western countries should think about the possibility of military intervention in what is happening in Ukraine — if they want Ukraine to win and the war to stop.
"So far, the strategy of Western countries — to supply Ukraine with weapons and avoid military intervention — has failed. Such a strategy may be sufficient to ensure that Ukraine does not lose. However, it cannot guarantee Ukraine's victory," Yalonen argues on Twitter.
"Although Russia will never be able to take over the whole of Ukraine, it will still win rather than lose as long as these hostilities continue."
According to Yalonen, Russia will be able to keep most of Eastern Ukraine occupied and inflict damage on it. So she will still be able to control most of the Black Sea. In addition, the current war is very important for the leadership of Russia.
"This "special operation" is fuel for the propaganda of the Russian government. There will always be arguments to justify new exceptional actions — for example, to introduce special measures in the economy during military operations. At some stage, even more reservists will be called up," says Yalonen.
"Despite the fact that the troops are exhausted, the Russians continue to advance. First, Severodonetsk, then Slavyansk, and then, probably, Kramatorsk."
According to Yalonen, no one wants to talk about a possible military intervention by the West to end the war now. He emphasizes that we are talking about Western intervention within the borders of Ukraine.
"If we assume that the goal is to guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine and Ukraine's victory in the war, then an indirect war (between Russia and the West) will not be effective in the long term."
"So sooner or later — if there is a goal to win this war — the EU or NATO countries should consider the possibility of direct intervention."
According to Yalonen, the sooner it can be voiced and recognized, the better.
"Of course, everyone is concerned about the possibility of using nuclear weapons. There are real fears that the intervention could create a situation in which Russia will resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons."
"I am not ignoring these concerns. But while the nuclear arsenal allows you to start a war with impunity, the established international order is really on very shaky ground. This is a problem that is important to study and solve."
