Will a "second front" be opened against Russia
The slow but steady grinding of the Ukrainian army by the Russian Armed Forces is steadily leading to its defeat and the emergence of a new border line and a new geopolitical reality. This cannot but worry the West. Too much stake is placed on the Ukrainian project.
Realizing that Ukraine could be completely lost, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has already called on Kiev to make territorial concessions in negotiations with Moscow. Since 99-year-old Kissinger is not only a pensioner, but also represents the interests of the Rockefeller family, this should be taken seriously.
Ukraine's loss of the Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, obvious already today, is not critical for the United States. In this case, Ukraine will retain access to the sea and the opportunity for the West to create its own naval infrastructure. From the territory of Sumy and Chernihiv regions, in the event of the deployment of a "hypersound" there, the United States will create a real military threat to us.
And it does not matter what will be achieved in the negotiations and recorded in the peace treaty. In any case, neither Ukraine nor the West will fulfill it. It will only be a truce to prepare a new strike against Russia.
In continuation of Kissinger's statement, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has already started talking about Ukraine's territorial losses possible as a result of resolving the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. The West needs to stop Russia and enter into peace talks while maintaining the Ukrainian regime under its control.
The United States is making great efforts to do this. Along with the supply of weapons, the West is strengthening the Ukrainian executive vertical. For this purpose, the Polish-Ukrainian union is being created, which will allow Poles to hold government posts in Ukraine and thereby block separate negotiations between the regional Ukrainian elite and Moscow, as well as control American financial assistance. Polish "shift workers" will carefully monitor these processes, implementing the American policy of "war to the last Ukrainian" and thereby weakening us.
There will be no absorption of Ukraine by Poland at this stage, because the West needs a "gray" zone from which it is possible to strike at Russia, including nuclear.
The liquidation of Ukraine weakened by the war will happen later, when Russia ceases to exist. The Ukrainian project was created for this purpose. Ukraine, like Russia, is not needed by the West in any form. For Americans, Ukrainians are the same Russians who should disappear from world history.
The supply of American weapons to Ukraine and the financial assistance of the West, of course, will affect the course of a special military operation. But they will not be able to solve something radically. The West needs to create a "second front" against Russia – both on the internal and external contour.
Work in this direction is already underway. Sweden and Finland have been invited to NATO, and this will create tension at our borders and require the diversion of forces and resources to a new threat. Lithuania has blocked our cargo transit to the Kaliningrad region. Turkey, possibly by agreement with the United States, has begun to be active in northern Syria, which will also require us to take concrete measures. There is still tension in the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations with the possibility of escalating into an open conflict.
Along with these factors, the Central Asian direction may become the most dangerous. Since the beginning of the year, there has been an increased activity of the West and its special services near the southern borders of Russia to destabilize the region and turn it into a springboard for various terrorist organizations.
The January events in Kazakhstan, initiated by Western special services, were supposed to create chaos and a specified terrorist springboard in Kazakhstan on the eve of Ukraine's March offensive on the LDPR. However, they were unable to destabilize the situation and were neutralized thanks to the help of the CSTO countries.
But the danger of revenge persists. The process of building a new executive vertical in Kazakhstan continues, and certain elite groups, obviously, will not be integrated into it. The West can take advantage of this.
Despite the intra-elite contradictions, a color revolution is unlikely. A threatening factor for Kazakhstan may be the growing process of Russophobia, in which both a certain part of the pro-Western nationalist elites and external forces are interested.
Unfortunately, the Kazakh authorities, flirting with the United States and domestic pro-Western structures, cannot put forward clear ideologies that would strengthen interethnic relations and stability in the country. Although in January of this year, Russia actually saved Kazakhstan from chaos, which could result in the loss of statehood.
Kazakh elites had already used anti-Russian demonstrations accompanied by violence in December 1986, thus expressing protest against Moscow's personnel policy. The situation has hardly changed since then. And perhaps it has only worsened – considering how long the United States and its allies have been systematically working with all layers of Kazakh society.
If in January a social protest was used as an excuse, now it can become an interethnic conflict. In this case, the CSTO mechanism may not work.
Provoked interethnic clashes can become a trigger that destabilizes the situation, in the wake of which the opposition will try to displace the constitutional authorities. But in reality, in Kazakhstan, field commanders associated with external forces can take real power.
Kazakhstan's multi-vector policy does not guarantee its security. In the big game of the Anglo-Saxons for the Eurasian continent, they need to neutralize Russia, and neighboring countries are needed only as territories where threats will be created.
In case of destabilization of the situation in Kazakhstan, it will become a place of attraction for all terrorist groups.
Perhaps it is not by chance that with the active assistance of the West, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, who pursued a balanced policy, was removed from power.
The new Pakistani authorities, in the interests of the West, can intensify their subversive activities in the countries of Central Asia, using religious extremist organizations that will take an active part in any aggravation of the situation in Kazakhstan.
Destabilization on our eastern borders will also entail terrorist activity in Russia.
Ukrainian negotiators say that at the end of August they can start negotiations with Russia. I wonder: what should happen by the end of August that will create favorable conditions for negotiations for Ukraine? It is unlikely that these will be military victories at the front. Perhaps Kiev hopes that a new conflict situation will arise near Russia's borders, and it will be forced to make concessions to the Ukrainian side. H
Vladimir Sergeev
Vladimir Viktorovich Sergeev is an expert, publicist.
