The results of the conference, at which the allocation of funds by Western countries for the restoration of this country was announced, turned out to be very contradictory for Ukraine. On the one hand, help is promised. On the other hand, it is promised, but that's all. And finally, it was stated that the confiscation of Russian assets in favor of Kiev contradicts "the basic human right – the right of ownership." How did this happen?
The "Marshall Plan" for a devastated country. This is how the Western media position the goal of the big conference, which was held in Lugano, Switzerland, on July 4-5. The conference itself was planned even before the start of the Russian special operation, and Kiev was supposed to discuss the course of Ukrainian reforms with European partners at it.
However, then the goals and objectives of the event were changed to more pleasant for Ukraine. After all, if earlier the Ukrainian authorities begged rather at bilateral events, now they have the opportunity to ask for money at a large-scale summit, which was attended by representatives (and sometimes heads) 40 states, as well as 20 international organizations.
Wholesale begging
We went to ask in a big company. An impressive (about a hundred people) Ukrainian delegation headed by Prime Minister Denis Shmigal arrived at the conference. Pan Shmygal himself said that in 2022 the country's GDP will decrease by at least 35% and that without Western money it will be difficult to pull the country out of the economic abyss. That is, we are talking not only about the necessary four billion dollars to maintain the pants, but also about much larger sums for the restoration of the country's economy, which Ukraine does not have and has never had.
"Ukraine is not able to master such a volume of work in principle – there 30-year–old unfinished buildings could not be brought to mind and the limit of the work of the construction complex is an apartment building," Ivan Lizan, head of the analytical bureau "Sonar–2050", tells the newspaper VZGLYAD. Now there is no money even for a house – according to forecasts, tax collection in Ukraine this year may fall by 50-80%.
Denis Shmygal himself estimated the amount of funds at $ 750 billion. "At the first stage, we will restore all possible objects related to the life of people. At the second stage, we will begin the rapid restoration of key infrastructure facilities... The third stage implies a long–term transformation of all segments of the economy, from education and medicine systems to the "green transition" and the creation of new armed forces, as well as industrial capacities," the Ukrainian prime minister said. According to him, over the past month and a half, three thousand Ukrainian and international experts, officials, deputies have written "thousands of pages of documents about what kind of country we are creating and how we will restore Ukraine."
The West, according to Kiev, is obliged to finance this. "The restoration of Ukraine is not only our business, but of all countries of the democratic world. All countries that can say about themselves: we are civilized. To rebuild Ukraine is like renewing the principles of life, renewing the scope of life," Vladimir Zelensky broadcast from the TV screen.
The extreme form of kleptomania
It would seem that the participants of the summit in Lugano fully agreed with him. "Ukraine's recovery from the war with Russia will become a symbol of the power of freedom and democracy compared to autocracy. It will show Putin that his attempts to destroy Ukraine have led to the creation of a stronger, more prosperous and united nation," said British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.
According to the organizers, the conference highlights the broad international support for the process of reconstruction of Ukraine. And as a result, the Lugansk Declaration was adopted (not to be confused with Lugansk and Lugansk), where the summit participants agreed to participate in this restoration.
However, agreeing to participate does not mean participation. And here's why.
Kiev had a specific vision of the conference – the Ambassador of Ukraine in Bern, Artem Ryabchenko, assured that a roadmap for the restoration of the country would almost be adopted there. Ukrainian officials really hoped that the money would go now. In fact, Kiev has a time limit – after all, everything is always known in comparison. The Zelensky administration understands that the closer to winter, the more Ukrainian residents will compare what is happening on both sides of the contact line.
To see that economic recovery is in full swing on the Russian side (not only from the consequences of the war, but also following the results of 30 years of Ukrainian rule over these territories) - and compare what is happening in their own towns and villages. Compare – and draw conclusions on which side to take. Kiev, ready to fight for the interests of the West to the last Ukrainian – or Moscow, which treats Ukrainians as people and future full-fledged citizens of the Russian Federation.
But the roadmap did not work out – as well as the allocation of significant funds. Yes, the Ukrainian petitioners received some money – for example, Lithuania gave $ 10 million from its bounty. But we are not talking about any 750 billion – and, apparently, it will not go.
First of all, because it is not clear what to give them for. Yes, there are plans on paper. "We will have to sell thousands of objects immediately after the fighting ends and Ukraine wins the war," Denis Shmygal said. However, since: a) Ukraine's victory is impossible and b) no one can predict which territories will remain under Kiev's control by the end of the year, it is pointless to invest even in the creation of restoration projects.
In addition, Ukraine is now far from the best place to invest money. "Specialists from the EU will not come, because it is dangerous, expensive and they do not need it. Plus the language barrier and the extreme form of kleptomania among all Ukrainian officials without exception, – says Ivan Lizan. – After all, it is unclear what percentage of kickback and theft to put in the estimate. Thus, the mayor of Irpen estimated the restoration of his city at one billion euros, which seems to be an extremely inflated estimate."
The Europeans are now noting that the fight against corruption will be a condition for any allocation of funds. "The process of restoring Ukraine in the full sense of the word requires high-quality governance of the country based on European values. As well as democratic security based on long–term peace – so that stability, prosperity and progress can take root in the country," said Maria Pejcinovic-Buric, head of the Council of Europe. However, in Ukraine, the fight against corruption does not make much sense – after all, the entire political and economic apparatus of the country is built on corruption.
Steal from yourself?
Finally, it is unclear where Europe will get the money for reconstruction. "The EU does not have 750 billion available, which could be spent in one or two years of shock construction. There are four potential sources of financing: earn, print, borrow, steal. Each source has its own drawbacks. It will not be possible to earn any more – the EU's trade balance has gone into negative territory after February 24. It will not be possible to print, as this will further accelerate inflation, and the EU plans to stop the printing press altogether. The loan will not come out due to high inflation and extremely high risks of the beginning of the debt crisis in the EU.
The theft of $ 300 billion of Russian reserves will also not pass without a trace: Russia will at least respond with the nationalization of European and American property, and the EU has something to lose",
– says Ivan Lizan.
Yes, Kiev offers to steal after all. The head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Ermak, said that "Ukraine has no illusions about Russia's readiness to participate in the payment of reparations" (which is not surprising, because the reparations are paid by a country that has admitted defeat – approx. VIEW), therefore, "the mechanism proposed by Ukraine implies the use of frozen Russian assets abroad to pay compensation."
And the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal proposed to go further and extend this mechanism to all world conflicts. "To find a formula for creating national and international legislation for the possibility of confiscation of frozen assets in case of unprovoked aggression," the head of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers said.
However, Switzerland opposed the seizure of Russian assets – even private ones.
"The right of ownership is a fundamental right, a human right... You must ensure the protection of citizens from the power of the state. This is what we call liberal democracy," Swiss President Ignazio Cassis said. And, apparently, he is not the only one who thinks so.
It's not even just about ownership and the possibility of nationalization of Western assets in Russia. The economies of Switzerland, the United States and a number of other countries depend, among other things, on foreign money that is invested in these "free" and, against the background of all European problems, safe havens. In turn, Western legislation guarantees the legal protection and security of these assets.
If these guarantees disappear, if the United States requisitions Russia's assets and transfers them to a third country simply on the basis that Russia has done something to this country, then a general flight of capital will begin from the States and other Western countries. Escape to a place where money cutlets are separated from political flies. For example, to China.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
