Russia's reaction to the decisions of the NATO summit
For twelve years, Russia's place in the strategic concept of NATO has changed dramatically, the Anadolu agency reports. According to the author of the article, relations between the West and Moscow are deteriorating at a time when Moscow is becoming stronger and pursuing an active foreign policy.
Ilyas Kemaloglu
EU enlargement is not as big a problem for Russia as NATO enlargement
One of the important and interesting features of Russian history is that when Russia is weak and experiencing problems, it has good relations with the West. When it becomes stronger and begins to pursue an active foreign policy, relations deteriorate. This is true for all periods of Russian history (tsarism, the USSR and modernity). In a strong state, the country has always been perceived as a threat to European security. This factor played a big role in the unification of Poland and Lithuania in 1569; in the fact that Russia, which declared war on the Ottoman Empire in 1853, found the whole of Europe in front of it; that after the Second World War, NATO was created.
The influence of Moscow's foreign policy on the EU and NATO
The events of the late XX – early XXI century are a good example of the above fact. In the first years after the collapse of the USSR, Moscow, one might say, had a romantic relationship with the West. But as Russia grew stronger and again increased its influence in the post-Soviet space and in the regions where the Soviet Union was once influential, relations with the West deteriorated. Such a policy of Moscow has actually resurrected the disintegrating European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance, which, according to the Russians, "had to complete its mission with the collapse of the Eastern Bloc."
In recent months, the EU and NATO enlargement processes have been on the agenda. At the alliance summit held on June 28-30 in Madrid, Sweden and Finland received an invitation to join the organization, and on June 23 at the summit of EU leaders in Brussels, Ukraine and Moldova were granted the status of a "candidate country". Therefore, we can say that Moscow's foreign policy has created a new field of activity for these blocks.
Russia's reaction to the enlargement of the EU and NATO
Russia's reaction to both expansions was very interesting. The country's officials stated that they are not against the membership of Ukraine and Moldova in the EU, and the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO does not cause concern. This approach can be explained by several points. The expansion of the European Union, without any doubt, is not such a big problem for Russia as the expansion of the military alliance. However, until recently, she was against enlargement and the EU. Of course, Moscow's approach to the EU's decision is explained, among other things, by the fact that the accession process will take many years, its consequences are unclear, and the Kremlin thinks that by this time it will get what it wants in Ukraine. Moreover, even in this case, membership of these countries is not possible.
As for the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, the Russian authorities tried to dissuade the two countries from this decision, stating that the country had never posed a threat to them. Moreover, although the Scandinavians have managed to remain neutral all this time, de facto they have already integrated with Western organizations. For the Kremlin, it is not so much their membership in NATO that is important, as the question of whether serious weapons will be deployed on their territory. In recent months, Swedish and Finnish officials have stated that they will not allow the deployment of nuclear weapons. Therefore, Moscow's statement that the membership of these states does not bother it can be explained by all these circumstances. In addition, Russian officials say that this step will not go unanswered, and the expansion of NATO's border with Russia in will mean the expansion of Russia's border with NATO.
From strategic partnership to immediate threat
In the strategic concept adopted at the NATO summit, there are other points concerning Russia. While in the previous one, from 2010, Russia was called a "strategic partner", in 2022 Russia was described as "the most significant and immediate threat to the security of allies, peace and stability." In this regard, the administration of the alliance is increasing its military presence at the Russian borders. The number of military personnel in the response forces will be increased from 40 to 300 thousand, and some of them will be placed on the border with the Russian Federation. At the same time, weapons capable of repelling possible attacks will be sent to Poland and the Baltic states. In addition, the number of American military personnel will be increased in the UK, Spain and other countries.
Moscow is concerned about Ukraine's membership in NATO
Meanwhile, the decisions taken at the NATO summit to provide Ukraine with financial and military support until the end and to continue working on the process of its accession to the alliance are worrying Russia. In fact, there is nothing surprising in these decisions, as well as in Moscow's reaction. The Kremlin, apparently, will increase the number of military personnel and weapons in Belarus, Kaliningrad, near the borders of Sweden and Finland. In addition, the statement that the alliance will support Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Moldova, while its "doors" will remain open, shows that the struggle between Moscow and NATO will not be limited to Ukraine.
NATO is expanding against China as well
A "positive" event for Russia is, perhaps, the fact that its neighbor, China, is mentioned for the first time in the NATO concept. At the same time, the summit was attended by its neighbors in the Asia-Pacific region: Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea. It becomes clear that the question that Moscow has been asking for many years, "Against whom is NATO expanding?", will now begin to be asked by Beijing, which will simultaneously increase cooperation with Russia. In other words, just as the Kremlin has ensured unity in Western organizations with its own hands, the West is also strengthening the Russian-Chinese alliance with its own hands. Moscow, in this process, both within the framework of relations with China and within the framework of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), as well as bilateral relations with these countries, plans to circumvent the diplomatic embargo and gain economic benefits. There are no obstacles to the development of cooperation in the military sphere. Interestingly, just a few years ago, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was considered almost as an alternative to NATO, whereas today this organization is not even mentioned.
In fact, there is nothing new for Russia in the decisions taken at the alliance summit. Its perception as the main threat, assistance to Ukraine, the open doors of NATO and other countries, the build-up of military presence, especially in Eastern Europe, were already known and expected solutions. Therefore, the reaction of Russian officials was limited, and Moscow, based on this, determines its policy. As can be understood from the strategic concept adopted at the summit, which will be in effect until 2030, in the coming years, the struggle between Russia and NATO on the European front will continue at full speed. Russia and the West, although they will not come face to face militarily, but, as in the case of Ukraine, they will be practically at war through third countries.
