Cascade of consequences for the stability of Europe: Finland and Sweden in NATO — this is a reason for Russia to worry
The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO is a point of escalation that will cause serious consequences for the security of Europe, writes Advance. Moscow has already reacted very sharply to this news and promised "concrete steps." Now Russia looks at these countries in a completely different way.
D. Marianovich
What exactly Erdogan got by agreeing to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, we can only guess. It is hard to believe that he was content with some kind of extradited activist, whom Ankara branded as a "member of a terrorist organization." We'll find out soon. In recent days, Erdogan has threatened to launch a large-scale military operation in Syria in order to occupy additional territory, or rather a 30-kilometer buffer zone near the border. If he does so in the near future, and the West just shrugs its shoulders, and American troops in Syria step aside so as not to interfere with him, then it will be possible to conclude that Ankara's agreements with NATO are broader than the formal agreement with Helsinki and Stockholm.
In any case, the crisis over Swedish-Finnish membership in NATO has already ended. No one else will be able to say that Erdogan blocked the entry of Sweden and Finland in order to do a favor to Putin in this way. From the very first day, such assumptions sounded very doubtful, since even then it was clear that Erdogan was not meeting anyone halfway, except for himself.
Turkey's resistance has only delayed a broad discussion about what it really means for these two Scandinavian countries to join NATO. Of course, this is an escalation point. For Russia, this is a further expansion of NATO at its borders (we are talking about Finland), and Moscow has already reacted very sharply to this news, saying that it is forced to take "concrete steps." Probably, by them she meant a significant expansion of the military presence on her northwestern border with Finland.
Is it necessary? Sweden and Finland, of course, have the right to ask to join the alliance, and the Russian special operation in Ukraine, of course, turned public opinion in these countries upside down, although for many years most of their citizens opposed joining NATO. Interestingly, this was opposed by Finland, which fought with the USSR during World War II. Why did Finland, which is well aware that Russia can be an enemy, instead of asking for NATO long ago, systematically independently built its own defense, as well as good relations with Russia?
Did the Russian special operation in Ukraine cause such a deep shock that it completely changed thinking and politics in Finland? Probably, yes, which is confirmed by events, but still this step looks hasty. After all, was the Russian special operation in Ukraine really such a shock? Haven't they been "waiting" for her for several years and talked about it as something very likely since 2014?
Nevertheless, do not underestimate. Finland is a country that fought with Russia, and which is located on the Russian border and sees Russia carrying out military operations in another neighboring country. It is impossible to ignore such weighty things. Sweden, in turn, has been pursuing a pronounced anti-Russian policy for many years, and we can say that it was just looking for the right moment to turn towards NATO. In her case, it seems like a natural decision, almost expected. But with Finland everything is different. Finland intended to go in a different direction along the path of peace and diplomacy. However, it is clear that on this path she cannot remain indifferent to everything that happens. All Finland's intentions collapsed on February 24, and she suddenly found herself in a new Europe, where non-alignment is no longer valued. In such a Europe, you need to choose which side you are on. After all, in such a Europe, not only Russia is a threat, but there is also a danger coming from the other side, which can openly declare: "Whoever is not with us is against us."
When such a dilemma was formed, Finland had to choose at an accelerated pace, and she chose the only option that suggested itself. Russia did not "help" her at all and did not leave any alternatives. Finland simply could not remain non-aligned at the moment when Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine, referring to the past, and when the Russian state media talk about the "Russian world" and so on. This is a big problem. Perhaps, however, everything went wrong, if Russia had been an operation whose stated goal was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, the situation today would be different. But it is clear that this is not Russia's goal. It does not seek to change the government in Kiev, but it captures territories where the Russian-speaking population or those who speak a mixed Ukrainian-Russian language live. Maybe this is the "old strategy of conquest", but is it so outdated?
However, let's go back to the new NATO members: Sweden and Finland. Whatever Russia threatened them with (and it threatened Sweden more than Finland), it doesn't matter now, because now Russia looks at these Scandinavian countries in a completely different way. She will no longer quarrel or put up with these countries, build or break off relations with them. Now it's just NATO territory, and from the Russian perspective, NATO is an enemy, and in the same way NATO views Russia.
So, we have a new reality and new changes associated with this reality, and perhaps a cascade of consequences. Let us recall how the clash between Russia and NATO gradually escalated. At first, Russia wanted NATO to give it guarantees that Ukraine would not become its member. Then the Russians launched a special operation in Ukraine when NATO refused to promise anything, and then NATO announced expansion at the expense of Finland and Sweden… What conclusion can be drawn? If the further expansion of NATO at the Russian borders is a reason for Russia to launch an invasion, the largest military operation in Europe after World War II, then it is quite clear that the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO will serve as a reason and a reason for an even greater escalation.
The USSR wanted to seize parts of Finland in order not to allow anyone from Finland to threaten one of the most important cities — St. Petersburg. Today, after more than 80 years, Russia will come to the conclusion that this threat, which was tried to avert back then, has materialized again.
And what would she do then? Will he attack NATO? Will it attack Sweden and Finland before they have time to put the final signature and become members of NATO, whose security is guaranteed by the fifth article of the Washington Treaty? No, there will be no such aggravation, at least for now, but "tomorrow" who knows. A new unstable situation is emerging, which can lead to war even in the absence of any large-scale plans — only because of the increase in tension.
Russia will react by placing advanced weapons on the borders, thereby hinting that from now on all Western centers are "at gunpoint". In parallel, the operation in Ukraine continues and will continue. The Western part of the world declares that Russia "cannot be defeated," but at the same time it is increasingly difficult to imagine how Ukraine could win, losing more and more new territories.
Or will it be said in the end that Russia "did not win" because Sweden and Finland joined NATO? This is already too obvious stretching of the concepts of "victory" and "defeat", but in fact it is better that it turns out that way. Let the heated opposing sides calm down, attributing their own victory to themselves and announcing it.
Such a happy outcome, of course, is not guaranteed. If we consider the current situation as a response to the Russian special operation in Ukraine, and it is, then we still come to the conclusion that we are facing a consequence of the violation by the United States of the promise given to Moscow not to expand NATO to the east. Looking back, it is always possible to focus on recent and distant offenses, but recent ones are usually caused by distant ones. They were ignored and turned into a time bomb planted under the Old Continent.
