Security guarantees on the way to NATO: what Zelensky wants to offer the West
Kiev, together with international experts, will look for an optimal model of security guarantees for itself, writes Evropeyska Pravda. The author of the article talks about the cardinal changes in Kiev's position on this issue – from the readiness to renounce membership in NATO to the ultimatum to accept Ukraine into the alliance.
Yuri Panchenko
On July 1, the Group on International Security Guarantees for Ukraine, co-chaired by the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Ermak and former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, gathered for its first meeting, following which the Co-Chairs held press conferences.
Despite the fact that the first meeting was rather constituent and few specifics were stated, certain conclusions can still be drawn. And some of them are fundamentally important.
Not instead of NATO
According to the results of the Ukrainian-Russian peace talks in Istanbul, security guarantees for Ukraine were first discussed at the end of March. During these negotiations, the Ukrainian side announced its proposals for a peace agreement. Then, after a little more than a month of full-scale conflict, Kiev was ready to abandon plans to join NATO.
Instead, a model was proposed according to which a number of countries of the world (not only Western countries, but also the Russian Federation and China) provide Ukraine with security guarantees. At the same time, without the consent of the security guarantors, Ukraine would not even be able to conduct military exercises.
Such a proposal from Kiev, however, did not remain relevant for long. The return of control over the Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy regions forced the Ukrainian authorities to adjust their position.
The inclusion of the Russian Federation in the list of guarantor countries was no longer discussed. At the same time, some other countries have declared their readiness to become a guarantor of security for Ukraine, but without guarantees of direct military assistance, as Kiev demanded from the very beginning.
But the main thing is that for a long time the system of security guarantees for Ukraine was considered as an alternative to membership in NATO, which Ukraine allegedly will have to abandon plans to join. This was also confirmed by the rhetoric of the Ukrainian authorities, which for a long time was critical of the alliance and its assistance in the conflict with Russia. Now we can say for sure: such rhetoric has come to an end.
This is confirmed by the recent NATO summit, during which Andriy Ermak stated that "Ukraine will not get off its path to full membership in NATO." A little earlier, similar statements were voiced by other representatives of Zelensky's team. The briefing on July 1 only reinforced this trend. Both Andrey Ermak and Anders Fogh Rasmussen are unanimous: the system of security guarantees in no way means giving up aspirations to become a member of NATO.
"This will not mean Ukraine abandoning its long–term goal of gaining membership in NATO. There is a clear understanding that this is not a replacement for the alliance, but security for the period while the process of acquiring membership continues," Rasmussen said. He added that security guarantees should not contain any restrictions for Ukraine regarding the size of its armed forces.
However, Rasmussen also said that it is not worth talking about Ukraine's accession to NATO in the near future. "Still, this is not a matter of the near future, and border disputes with Russia make this task more difficult. Therefore, it is better to throw your forces not to obtain a MAP or membership in NATO, but on guarantees that will be in effect now," he explains.
Between the EU and Asia
However, the key question remains open: what kind of security guarantees can be for Ukraine in a situation when none of the potential guarantors agrees to promise to provide Ukraine with guarantees comparable to Article 5 of NATO.
Moreover, Anders Fogh Rasmussen clarifies: "These should be real guarantees, and not such as the so-called Budapest Memorandum gave."
The former NATO Secretary General admits that Ukraine will not be able to receive guarantees similar to those recently provided to Sweden and Finland by the United Kingdom. Recall that these guarantees will remain in effect until the final completion of the accession of these countries to the alliance, when they will be replaced by the already mentioned Article 5.
"Now Ukraine is in different conditions than these countries, and no one will give such guarantees to Ukraine. Therefore, this path is not an example for us," he explains.
According to Rasmussen, experts are now considering all available security models, primarily those provided to Asian countries (Japan, South Korea or Taiwan).
"We are also considering security schemes that were in the past, for example, Belgium, whose security was guaranteed by a number of countries, and this model was in effect for seventy-five years (we are talking about the London Agreement of 1839, which was in effect before the outbreak of the First World War). None of these models can fully suit Ukraine, but certain elements of them may be useful," he adds.
Another potential security model is security guarantees within the European Union.
"Indeed, there is a norm in the EU that guarantees its members support in case of aggression. However, it is difficult to say exactly how this mechanism works. We must study it carefully, and in addition, consider the possibility of extending these guarantees not only to members, but also to candidates for EU membership," Rasmussen explains.
At the same time, he does not rule out that one of the leading Western countries, for example, the United States or Britain, will agree to provide Kiev with additional guarantees: "The security model for Ukraine may well have several levels. Multilateral agreements that will be signed by a number of countries that have shown interest in this may complement one or more bilateral agreements with countries that are ready to assume a greater level of guarantees."
The working group also clarifies: in addition to military guarantees, the security model should include an economic component, because a powerful economy is also one of the components of national security.
Despite the fact that the work of the expert group has just started, Andrey Ermak promises that the first recommendations will be prepared in July, that is, within a month. There are currently ten participants in the working group (among them former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, as well as representatives of the United States, Poland and Sweden), but their number may increase. "We will work very quickly, and if experts are added to our group, they will be immediately involved in the work," he adds.
It is still difficult to predict what kind of model may be acceptable for Western countries that are not going to fight Putin personally, but at the same time give sufficient guarantees to Ukraine.
Europravda asked Rasmussen a question: if we present a security scale according to which NATO membership will have the highest 10-point level, what level of security can the security guarantee system give Ukraine?
"I don't think I can give such an assessment, it still requires a long analysis. However, our goal is to do everything possible to get as close as possible to the top ten," the ex–Secretary General replied.
