Is Kazakhstan moving away from Russia?
Central Asia has turned into an arena of confrontation between Russia, China, Turkey and the United States, writes Al Araby Al Jadeed. Moscow needs to reconsider its policy in the post-Soviet space and actively interact with Beijing, the author believes. This will help Russia to limit Western expansion in Central Asia and ensure its security.
Basel Hajj Jasem
Central Asia is becoming more and more an arena of confrontation between China, its neighbor with objective interests there, and the United States, which is seeking to strengthen its influence in the region after the victory in the Cold War. The republics that were in the zone of Russian responsibility interpreted the collapse of the USSR exclusively as independence from Moscow. This, in turn, forced them to rely on other centers of power – Beijing, Washington and Ankara. Nevertheless, they still turn to Russia for help in extreme cases, as happened with Kazakhstan in January 2022 and Tajikistan in the early 1990s.
According to some analysts, the Kremlin's frivolous attitude towards the countries that were part of the Soviet Union and the strategic short-sightedness of the leadership of the former Soviet republics led to the fact that Central Asia turned into an arena of confrontation between global players. The dominance of the principle of formal equality has caused Russia to significantly lose influence in the post-Soviet space.
The former Soviet republics are used to Moscow granting them political and economic preferences in exchange for formal friendship and participation in integration associations created under the auspices of Russia – the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In reality, they use any integration platform in the post-Soviet space to promote their national interests, which change depending on regional and/or international equations.
A clear illustration is the behavior of the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during his visit to Moscow. He promised to follow the anti-Russian sanctions, which formally puts Kazakhstan in the position of a state unfriendly to Russia. According to officials, any country supporting the West's hybrid war against Russia becomes unfriendly, but it is unlikely that Russian officials will publicly recognize Kazakhstan as an unfriendly state. Even Turkey, a NATO member that openly takes a pro-Kiev position, has not declared support for the sanctions regime.
The President of Kazakhstan changed his rhetoric after requesting help from Russia and the CSTO to suppress protests in Alma-Ata. Only a few months ago, calm was restored in the country thanks to the actions of the CSTO, which is considered an analogue of NATO. This was followed by a quick announcement of the success of the CSTO mission and the withdrawal of peacekeeping forces from Kazakhstan.
There are different opinions in Kazakhstan about the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. The reasons lie in the fact that the two principles of the UN Charter – on integrity and self–determination - contradict each other, hence the different understanding of territorial issues. Some say that territorial integrity is sacred, while others argue that any peoples who are part of a particular country have the right to create their own state. It is estimated that if the right of peoples to self-determination is realized all over the globe, then instead of 193 countries that are now members of the UN, more than 600 will appear. Of course, this will lead to chaos. This was stated by the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during a discussion at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
"For this reason, we do not recognize Taiwan, nor Kosovo, nor South Ossetia, nor Abkhazia. And apparently, this principle will be applied to quasi–state territories, which, in our opinion, are the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics," Tokayev added.
Russian officials from time to time call for the return of the territories of the former Soviet republics to the Russian Federation, which causes concern among Kazakhstan and other states. Ethnic Russians are a minority in some countries (22% of the population), and their leadership fears a repeat of the scenarios of Crimea, Eastern Ukraine and South Ossetia.
Moscow, which is waging an existential war with the West, needs to reconsider the political, economic and military integration structures and their functioning in the post-Soviet space, as well as actively interact with Beijing. This will help it to limit Western expansion in Central Asia, prevent threats from Afghanistan and ensure its security.
