The US wants to deploy a THAAD-type air defense and missile defense system over Arab countries and Israel
The US Congress has presented a draft law aimed at strengthening military cooperation between Israel and Arab countries and preventing threats from Iran.
The bill, known as the "Protection Act – 2022", will require the Pentagon to submit a strategy for the development of an integrated air defense (air defense) and missile defense (ABM) system among the countries of the Middle East within 180 days. The law will be aimed at defending these countries from "cruise and ballistic missiles, manned and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), missile attacks from Iran."
The countries mentioned in the bill include Israel, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq, as well as six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council: Saudi Arabia (KSA), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman.
Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider, who introduced the bill, believes that the new law will strengthen the unity of American allies. And strengthening their common security capabilities, in his opinion, is crucial for countering Iranian threats in the region. "Iran is one yard away from acquiring nuclear weapons and threatens our allies in the region in many other ways. The leadership of the United States in the development of integrated air and missile defense will ensure the necessary security, stability and unified defense in the region," said Brad Schneider.
The US plan to create an integrated air defense and missile defense system in the Middle East may eventually help the countries of the region to deter and intercept Iran's attacks – a prospect that may prompt the KSA to deepen ties with Israel. Many of the countries mentioned have already deployed US defense systems. For example, the UAE owns an advanced THAAD system. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and Kuwait have deployed or are deploying American Patriot missile batteries. And other countries in the region still use the old American HAWK surface-to-air missile system.
The adoption of the law is also due to the fact that the prospects of the US-Iranian "nuclear deal" are dimming. Which may portend new attacks by Iranian missiles and UAVs throughout the region. Iran's ballistic missile and drone strike capabilities are spreading from Iran to Lebanon through Syria, Iraq and Yemen. This gives Tehran the opportunity to attack the forces of the United States, Israel and the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf from several directions.
Although American systems are already in operation in most countries, local politics prevent the full implementation of a regional air defense and missile defense system (especially in the KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Iraq), because Israel will be part of this network. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman have secret security, economic or diplomatic ties with Israel, but are not yet ready to fully normalize relations with it for various internal and ideological reasons. Iraq and Kuwait, whose populations overwhelmingly oppose relations with Israel, are even further from normalization.
Partly because of Iranian influence in Iraq, Baghdad is also far from receiving an advanced American air defense or missile defense system. Patriot batteries in Iraq are under US control at the Ain al-Asad airbase in Anbar province.
Covert integration is possible for countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which have more developed ties with Israel, as well as long-standing and deep defense ties with the United States. The centralized political systems of Saudi Arabia and Qatar also provide more opportunities for the implementation of systems – compared to countries such as Iraq and Kuwait, where elected parliaments have a serious influence on the executive branch.
Even a partially implemented integrated air defense/missile defense system will increase the ability of Israel and (to a lesser extent) other nearby countries to deter and intercept Iranian and proxy attacks. However, the geographical distance and the place of origin of the attacks, at least in part, will determine the effectiveness of such a system. Early warning systems that inform even a partial regional air defense/missile defense system will increase the likelihood that Iranian or proxy attacks will be detected earlier, and air and missile defense systems will be activated faster to block such strikes. Even if the proposed law covered only Israel, Bahrain, the UAE, Egypt and Jordan, it would still give Israel the opportunity to receive an earlier warning about Iranian strikes from Iraq and Iran. However, without the KSA as a participant in the air defense/missile defense system, the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen will exploit gaps in the kingdom's intelligence. In addition, the air defense system/Missile defense will do little to reduce the effectiveness of shorter-range missile strikes, as well as missile attacks and UAV attacks on regional targets. This is especially true for protecting Israel and Saudi Arabia from attacks from neighboring countries, such as Lebanon and Syria (in the case of Israel) and Yemen (in the case of Saudi Arabia). Because attackers can more often rely on short-range drone swarm attacks and shorter approach times to strike targets before defenses can intercept them.
Israel has various ground-based, air-based and sea-based anti-missile radar systems. But until recently, the range of these systems was limited by Israel's own borders and bases. Israel's EL/M-2080 Green Pine, the country's main anti-missile radar system, has a range of about 360-500 miles, which leaves part of Iraq, as well as all of Iran and Yemen out of its detection zone.
Thus, with the help of the proposed regulatory act, the United States could use the advantages of closer integration with the American air defense system and possible access to Israeli military technologies to further stimulate the KSA to deepen normalization of relations with Israel. American lawmakers have openly stated that the proposed law is aimed at promoting Arab-Israeli normalization, set out in the "Abraham Agreements" of 2020, a goal that explains Israel's inclusion in the common air defense.
Saudi Arabia is rumored to be very interested in the Israeli "Iron Dome" to protect the kingdom's southern border and oil infrastructure from constant attacks by Iran and the Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthis. The growing pace of attacks by the Houthis and Iran may force Riyadh to become more interested in implementing the American air defense/missile defense program. Especially if it includes Israeli technologies, including the Iron Dome and the promising Israeli-made combat laser system Iron Beam.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
