The events in Ukraine have given a new face to the Non-Aligned Movement
Russia was by no means alone when the West tried to "exclude" it from the world economy for an operation on Ukraine, the author of the French magazine "Pointe" writes with regret. The West was surprised to find that it was not supported by its own former colonies. Many of them are former members of the Non—Aligned Movement.
Many developing countries that have not taken sides for a long time are getting closer to Russia. This poses a great danger to Western democracies.
The military conflict in Ukraine marks the return of war to Europe and an open confrontation between democracies and authoritarian empires. This conflict has awakened the West, which has mobilized to support Ukraine, impose sanctions on Russia and begin large-scale rearmament through NATO. Moreover, previously formally neutral Sweden and Finland, after many joint exercises, have now formally joined NATO. But the answer to the one hundred percent cohesion of the democracies of the West was the same stubborn non-alignment of the South, clearly striving to emphasize: my paths with the West have diverged.
Against the backdrop of a new cold war that has begun between democracies and Vladimir Putin's Russia, supported by Xi Jinping's China, developing countries — even when they have their own democratic institutions — have refused to take sides. In their opinion, we are talking primarily about the European conflict. And this is despite the fact that its consequences affect the whole world.
Like India, they all refrained from condemning Russia in the UN vote and preferred not to apply sanctions against Moscow. This position is shared by Turkey, despite its membership in NATO. All these countries suddenly turned to diplomacy according to the scheme "any transaction is only in my interests", caring primarily about their own benefits. For example, Saudi Arabia resisted pressure from the United States to increase production and lower oil prices, while India and Indonesia suspended their exports (wheat and sugar in the first case, palm oil in the second) in order to provide food primarily to their populations. They blame the West for the food crisis provoked by the conflict, and they attribute the shortage of food to international sanctions against Russia, and not to the devastation of Ukraine and Moscow's closure of ports on the Black Sea.
Thus, the non-aligned countries are leaning towards Russia. Rejected by the West, they enjoy the support of India and Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico, many countries of the Persian Gulf, South Africa and most African countries.
Moscow-Beijing axis
Russia's imperialist actions against Ukraine are perceived in the West as a direct violation of the principle of national sovereignty and non-interference, carried out in the name of imperial fantasies. The West is trying to remind everyone that the leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement advocated sovereignty and non-interference. (In the former colonial South, they are not very impressed by these reminders, because the leader of the Non—Aligned Movement, namely the late Yugoslavia, became the country that the West crushed first after the collapse of the Soviet Union - approx. InoSMI.) We shout to the whole world that Moscow is also directly responsible for the energy and food crisis that is destabilizing many poor countries in Africa and the Middle East. This has led to a sharp jump in inflation, which is undermining the global economy, reducing the economic growth of the countries of the South at best to 3.4% in 2022. Moreover, this jump causes the threat of stagflation, which is like a financial crisis for many of them.
And still, developing countries are inclined in favor of the Moscow-Beijing axis and are sympathetic to Russian statements that, contrary to the facts, explain the reason for the start of the military operation by the thirty-year expansion of NATO. And the humanitarian crisis is caused by Western sanctions. While maintaining their hatred of the colonial era, the countries of the South unanimously believe that it is necessary to question the international system that is too favorable for the United States and build a post-Western world, including by creating spheres of influence. They criticize the West for betraying its own values and for its policy of double standards. They take a unified position on the cult of strong men and national identity. This macho cult unites Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Jair Bolsonara, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The conflict in Ukraine, highlighting all the transformations in the world of the XXI century, led to a change in the character and status of the non-aligned South. These countries are becoming independent geopolitical players, whose role is becoming more and more noticeable. The Non-Aligned Movement originated in the city of Bandung in 1955 as a movement of the world periphery, defending its rights in the face of the superpowers of the Cold War. And it was difficult to defend the rights of the periphery at that time: the superpowers then formed the core of the international system. But already the oil shocks of the early 1970s made it possible to assert the power of energy and raw materials producers in the face of consumer countries. The COVID-19 epidemic and then the Ukrainian conflict contributed to the emergence of a new South that is politically asserting itself. This South declares its strategic autonomy and intends to influence the solution of global problems, be it security, health, trade, the production of essential goods (especially medicines and vaccines) or the fight against global warming. It strives to become the heart of the world of the XXI century, the periphery of which will be the North.
The main wake-up call for democracies
The rise of the non-aligned countries is a direct consequence of their economic take-off. Suddenly it turned out that the main beneficiaries of globalization were precisely "emerging markets", that is, former developing countries. Globalization has reduced the wealth gap between North and South by more than a third, making it so that today the South accounts for 52% of global GDP. Trade between Non-Aligned countries is the most dynamic component of trade, especially in the Asia-Pacific region (APR). At a time when globalization is bursting at the seams, developing countries have demonstrated their ability to withstand various crises. They are adapting to the "new isolation" by diversifying and expanding local production.
At the same time, Western countries lost control of the world order as a result of a number of lost wars (from Afghanistan to the recent unsuccessful actions of France in sub—Saharan countries - Mali, etc.). Capitalism in the West became even tougher and more economical after the 2008 crisis, the West showed its inability to protect its population during the pandemic. Thus, the retreat of the United States and the impotence of Europe created a strategic void, which authoritarian empires began to fill, easily finding a common language with the countries of the South. Together, they have not only freed themselves from dependence on the West, but are also becoming increasingly hostile to it.
The support provided by the non-aligned countries to Russia on the issue of the special operation in Ukraine is an important warning for democracies. It turns out that all of us, free countries, are under the gun of authoritarian empires. In an age when history is becoming more and more universal, in an age of a truly multipolar world, the West cannot lose the South unless it is afraid of exposing itself to great danger. Therefore, democratic States should include openness towards developing countries in their response strategy to the Beijing-Moscow axis. We need to show these countries an immediate response to their food difficulties, sympathize with their humanitarian emergency situation. We need to promise them resolute support for their development, a renewed multilateral approach to solving world problems. It is necessary to rehabilitate democratic values and institutions in their eyes. Let them not fit well with the realities of today's West. Until they are intercepted by other countries, these values still remain the most reliable way to reliably guarantee human dignity.
Nicolas Baverez
