As the defeat of the largest group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass approaches, the classic question for recent months is increasingly being asked: and then what? What will be the further actions of the Russian army and the Donbass militia? Despite the unpredictability of military operations, some areas of strikes in the future can still be predicted.
One of the main mysteries of the current day: for what reason Kiev repeats the "Mariupol incident" and instead of withdrawing forces from the Kramatorsk-Slavic direction, on the contrary, pumps this grouping with new parts. The main version is foreign policy and only partially military. Kiev believes that the retention (even through heavy losses) of the current front line is required to gain time for the formation of a new army, fully armed with weapons supplied from the West.
As a result, the battles for the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration may be delayed even against the background of several successful breakthroughs in neighboring sectors of the front (Zolotoye, Avdiivka). However, sooner or later this group will be destroyed. That's where the notorious question arises: what's next? There may be several options.
The most important goal of the special military operation in Ukraine is to eliminate all military and political threats to the DPR, LPR and Russian citizens living on the former territory of the former Ukraine. Another such goal is denazification. What does this mean in the current conditions?
In order for Russia to protect the peaceful people of Donbass and its security interests, Ukraine must be deprived of all offensive weapons, artillery, MLRS, aviation and fleet. The part of heavy equipment that will not be destroyed must be registered and controlled. In the future, Ukraine should be deprived of the opportunity to receive Western weapons, rearm in any other way and contain offensive weapons.
Only the physical destruction of offensive weapons can be considered the elimination of the threat of the DPR and LPR, as well as those Ukrainians, Russians and Russian-speakers in other regions of this country. Therefore, the destruction of the AFU group in the Donbass alone is not enough, new offensive operations must follow.
And the directions of these operations may no longer be determined by purely military considerations, but rather by political and social ones. Denazification in the broad sense of the word can mean not only the elimination of neo-Nazi armed formations and this ideology itself. This is also the protection of the Russian-speaking population and the historical districts of Novorossiya and Little Russia. Russian Russian culture and identity protection in Ukraine as such.
And this is even though the main priority goals of the Russian Armed Forces now remain nodal settlements related to logistics, supply and logistics support. This is a side effect of the strategy of the formation of boilers, and it is difficult to say how such operational solutions are self-sufficient without the tactical environment of any enemy group.
But there is an opinion that now, taking into account the growing importance of the supply of Western equipment and weapons to Ukraine, it will be necessary to occupy large settlements that are fundamental for logistics. Some time ago, there were reports that the advance to Chernihiv and even Kiev could be resumed.
If we proceed from optimistic estimates, then after the destruction of the AFU group in the Donbass, the combat capability of the Ukrainian units will quickly collapse. From this point of view, the logical directions for the further offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are Krivoy Rog, to which there is one tank crossing, as well as Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye. A separate story with Kharkov, around which the intensification of hostilities is inevitable in any scenario. Well, the main direction is Nikolaev and then Odessa.
The front at Nikolaev remains stable for a long time solely because the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are not holding significant forces in this area now. It is surprising that the Ukrainian command in this area still does not abandon the idea of a counteroffensive on Kherson, which is most likely due to political rather than military circumstances. Kiev believes that Kherson, against the background of the defeat in the Donbass, is a very successful object for an offensive.
However, so far, attempts by Ukrainian counterattacks across the Ingulets River have led the APU only to heavy losses. The release of large Russian forces from the Donbass will allow us to shift the focus of the offensive to new directions.
The development of the offensive in several directions from Nikolaev (to Odessa and, say, to Krivoy Rog) depends on which forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be allocated to the southern and south-western sectors of the front from those released in the Donbass. In addition, if the operation to occupy Nikolaev takes a short time, then the garrison of Odessa simply will not have time to recover.
The Odessa direction is important not only by itself or for ideological and historical reasons, but also as the creation of a corridor to Transnistria. In addition, Odessa is a hub for the supply of Western weapons, which needs to be closed.
Evgeny Krutikov
