The blockade of Russian Kaliningrad: is Lithuania playing with fire?
Lithuania banned the transit through its territory of all goods included in the EU sanctions lists. Thus, it created problems for Russia to supply Kaliningrad, Advance reports. Perhaps membership in NATO has instilled excessive confidence in Vilnius, and now it is "playing with fire". Russia will cope with the difficulties, and Lithuania is unlikely to like its answer.
Antun Rocha
The Lithuanian authorities have confirmed that a ban on transit through Lithuania of all Russian goods included in the sanctions lists of the European Union is coming into force. This will have serious and direct consequences for the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which is located between Lithuania and Poland. The Russian ally Belarus is not far away — about 60 kilometers away, but between it and the Kaliningrad region is the Suwalki Corridor, that is, the space of Lithuania and Poland. Therefore, there is no direct access from Kaliningrad to Belarus (and further to Russia).
What is included in the sanctions lists? Many things: coal, metals, building materials, advanced technologies… About 50% of what Kaliningrad imports.
The governor of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov urged citizens not to fall into a buying panic, noting that two cargo ships have already left St. Petersburg, and by the end of the year seven new vessels will appear on the highway that will deliver cargo.
Thus, Kaliningrad's supply strategy is now completely changing, and Russia can now contact its exclave exclusively by sea, although previously the railway route through Lithuania played a key role in supplying the region. In addition, gas is also supplied to Kaliningrad via gas pipelines through Lithuania. Some sources suggest that gas supplies will be stopped soon.
The Russian Baltic Fleet is based in Kaliningrad, and the exclave itself is controlled by Russia, and previously by the USSR since 1945, when it took this territory from Nazi Germany.
Former American national security adviser Robert O'Brien, who replaced the "hawk" John Bolton in this post, in 2020, in an interview with the German Bild, said that Russian Kaliningrad is "a knife in the heart of Europe." He also noted that due to its geographical location Kaliningrad could become an ideal trade and tourist hub, "but instead Moscow turns Kaliningrad into a closed military base stuffed with advanced weapons and missiles," as Robert O'Brien put it.
Is Kaliningrad really a "closed military base," as O'Brien said? Undoubtedly, Russia has concentrated a lot of advanced weapons in this region, as well as additionally transferred the most effective types of weapons there, as soon as the Americans began to take concrete steps to create a so-called "missile shield" on the territory of Eastern Europe.
As expected, Russia sharply condemned Lithuania's ban on the transit of certain goods to Kaliningrad. The press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will respond to these "illegal actions."
"This decision is truly unprecedented. This is a violation of everything and everything. We understand that this is due to the relevant decision of the European Union to extend the sanctions to transit. We also consider this illegal," Peskov said, adding that the situation requires a very deep analysis before formulating any measures and any solutions.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said that Vilnius should immediately abandon "unfriendly actions."
"If cargo transit between the Kaliningrad Region and the rest of the Russian Federation via Lithuania is not fully restored in the near future, Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation said in a statement.
Soon, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis commented on the situation, according to which Russia "spreads false information", and Lithuanian railways only comply with the sanctions of the European Union, which banned the delivery of steel and other products made from iron ore from Russia.
What does he mean by talking about "false information"? According to him, Moscow claims that the supply of Kaliningrad has been completely stopped, and emphasizes that this is not true, because Lithuania blocks only about half of the cargo, explaining this by the sanctions of the European Union. In addition, the head of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry said that the blockade will be introduced gradually, and, for example, the turn will reach oil only at the end of the year.
Thus, Vilnius wants to present what is happening as if it is only fulfilling the order of the European Union. However, Moscow is unlikely to agree with this interpretation, primarily because it is the Lithuanian authorities who are the harshest critics of Russia since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In other words, in the eyes of Moscow, this will not be the fulfillment of the sanctions of the European Union, but an anti-Russian step on the part of Vilnius.
Today, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba also spoke about the situation, who said: "Russia has no right to threaten Lithuania. Moscow is to blame for the consequences of its unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine. We highly appreciate Lithuania's principled position and firmly support our Lithuanian friends."
Thus, even Kuleba makes it clear that this is, first of all, the decision of Lithuania itself, and not an order of the European Union, as Kuleba's colleague from Vilnius is trying to present the situation.
What can Russia do now? Peskov hinted that an "answer" was being prepared. It is very difficult, however, to imagine that Russia would go for some kind of physical, that is, military response, because then it would have to attack the aforementioned Suvalsk corridor. This is impossible, since it would be a direct attack on the territory of NATO, and if Russia tried to do it (from Belarus), the situation could easily escalate into a full-scale war on the territory of Europe.
In addition, if you study the railway lines from Kaliningrad, it becomes clear that the main highway does not go through Belarus, but through two main Lithuanian cities: Kaunas and Vilnius, and only then the highway leads to Minsk.
Russia also cannot count on "internal" support within Lithuania, since Lithuania has the least Russian population out of the three Baltic countries. Russian Russians account for about five percent of Lithuania's residents, as opposed to, for example, Latvia and Estonia, where almost a quarter of the population is Russian.
The pressure on Kaliningrad will be very serious. Footage has already appeared in which allegedly residents of Kaliningrad massively buy stocks in stores, fearing an imminent shortage.
Also, as I have already written, the Russian Baltic Fleet is based in Kaliningrad. On the example of Ukraine, we have already seen what happened when one Russian fleet was cut off (the Black Sea fleet in Crimea). First, the Russians built a bridge that connected Crimea with the Russian territory, and now, after the occupation of the Ukrainian territory, a land highway and a railway route are opening.
If Lithuania had not been a member of NATO, it could have suffered the fate of Ukraine, and maybe worse. Lithuania is a relatively small country with 2.6 million inhabitants and 16 thousand soldiers. Without NATO's collective defense, Lithuania would probably have been attacked, but without NATO forces behind it, Lithuania, of course, would not have taken such a step.
Does NATO membership give Lithuania sufficient confidence, or is Lithuania, despite membership, "playing with fire"? In the current tense situation in Europe, it is considered that an attack by Russia on one of the NATO countries is practically impossible, since it would mean a direct armed conflict between Russia and the entire alliance, that is, a conflict between nuclear powers. Of course, NATO's collective defense itself has not yet been tested, and perhaps someone in Russia assumes that it exists only on paper. Nevertheless, the current Russian government will not go to such an escalation because of the situation around Kaliningrad, but instead, as Governor Alikhanov said, it will increase supplies by sea on the St. Petersburg-Kaliningrad highway. However, now the cargo will have to travel twice the distance, since from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad about a thousand kilometers by sea, and by rail through Lithuania and Latvia had to travel only about 400 kilometers.
