Ukraine attacked Russian drilling platforms in the Black Sea. As a result of the impact, one of the three installations is damaged, it will be restored. But even if they were completely destroyed, Kiev would not be able to cause tangible economic damage, but there was a great risk of environmental disaster. So why did Ukraine attack these offshore platforms and what retaliatory measures can Russia take?
Information has been confirmed on three wounded and seven missing as a result of an attack by the armed forces of Ukraine on the drilling platforms of the Chernomorneftegaz company in the Black Sea. This was announced on Monday in his Telegram channel by the head of the Republic of Crimea Sergey Aksenov. The regional government guarantees that the search for the missing will continue. "At the moment, 94 people have been evacuated. 15 servicemen remain on guard of the operating drilling platforms," Aksenov also informed.
The Investigative Committee of Russia has opened a criminal case on the fact of the shelling, the UK is establishing which of the Ukrainian security forces is responsible for the attack.
According to the Crimean authorities, at about 8 o'clock in the morning, the Ukrainian side attacked the drilling platforms of Chernomorneftegaz at the Odesskoye field, which are located 71 kilometers from Odessa. At that time, 109 people were at the facilities. One of the three platforms was damaged as a result of the impact, but its work will be restored, production will continue, TASS quoted a message from Senator from Crimea Olga Kovitidi. "We were able to save the deposit, prevent a technological catastrophe," the representative of the republic in the Federation Council stressed.
State Duma deputy Viktor Vodolatsky suggested that the strike could have been carried out by British or American-made missiles. Such a step was suggested to the Ukrainian authorities by advisers from the United States, since Kiev itself had not previously dared to strike at Russian civilian infrastructure, military expert Alexander Bartosh believes.
"The Odesskoye field is covered at medium and high altitudes by long-range air defense complexes, as well as by the forces of the Black Sea Fleet. At long distances, the platforms are protected by fighter aircraft. Why was the attack carried out after all? Apparently – although they don't talk about it anywhere – interference was created there by the forces and means of Western countries, as well as deep reconnaissance and diversionary maneuvers were carried out," Sergei Khatylev, the former head of the anti–aircraft missile forces of the special purpose command of the Russian Air Force, suggested in a comment to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
This version is supported by the information that appeared that a week before the strike of Ukraine, American commercial satellites were surveying the Black Sea area with drilling platforms of Chernomorneftegaz. The Worldview-1, Worldview-2 and Worldview-3 satellites photographed the water area with drilling platforms on June 11, 13 and 14, respectively.
Bartosh does not rule out that, at the suggestion of Western curators, the Ukrainian military will try to attack Russian civilian objects again. However, according to the interlocutor, it is unlikely that it will come to the APU attack on the Crimean Bridge, which was threatened not so long ago by Ukrainian General Dmitry Marchenko.
According to Khatylev, the goal of the attackers was to force Russia to bring military vessels closer, then to attack them with the help of American anti-ship cruise missiles "Harpoon". "But to improve the protection of platforms, it is enough for us to carry out an organizational and technical reorientation of those forces that already exist, including on the island of Zmeiny. There are electronic warfare, radar, anti-aircraft missile systems. It is also possible that the Russian Defense Ministry will decide to strengthen the aviation grouping in this area," the source said. According to the expert,
as a response, Russia can strike at command posts, control and communication points throughout Ukraine – at the AFU control system as a whole, and not just at decision-making centers in Kiev.
The Crimean peninsula, its energy and tourist infrastructure are reliably covered by the Russian air defense forces, the head of the Republic of Crimea Aksyonov assured after the attack of the AFU on the facilities of Chernomorneftegaz. Nevertheless, by giving the order to attack the "Odessa", the Kiev regime demonstrated that it poses a danger to the entire Black Sea region, because the destruction of the platforms threatened an environmental catastrophe not only for Russia, but also for neighboring states, Bartosz noted. "Remember the catastrophic consequences caused by the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010," the expert pointed out.
With all the inadequacy of this attack, it is possible to reconstruct the political logic of Kiev, Bartosh believes. "Ukraine wants to strengthen its position on potential negotiations with Moscow – to show that it can damage the energy balance and the Russian economy," the source believes. But this calculation also seems, to put it mildly, ill-conceived. The drilling rigs of Chernomorneftegaz could be considered strategically important objects only at the time when they belonged to Ukraine, experts believe.
"When Crimea was controlled by Kiev, Chernomorneftegaz was considered as an enterprise that would increase gas production in order to supply the peninsula with blue fuel on a permanent basis. At the peak, they even managed to reach more than 2 billion cubic meters of gas per year," explained Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a leading expert of the National Energy Security Fund.
"After the referendum in 2014, it turned out that it is much more profitable to supply the peninsula with fuel from the territory of continental Russia. And two years later, a gas pipeline from the Krasnodar Territory was put into operation. Its capacity is 2.2 billion cubic meters per year with the possibility of increasing pumping to 4 billion cubic meters. And this is quite enough for Crimea," the source added.
As for Chernomorneftegaz, production there soon after 2014 "began to fall rapidly and stabilized at around 1.5 billion cubic meters per year." "Gas is needed on the peninsula, including for the operation of two thermal power plants and several thermal power plants. And if necessary, we can reduce the generation of electricity at these facilities by increasing the supply of electricity through the energy bridge that operates between the Crimea and the Krasnodar Territory," Mitrakhovich said.
In this regard, the interlocutor argues, it is difficult to imagine a situation where there are problems with energy resources on the peninsula. "But this does not negate the need to understand what happened and understand how these facilities will function further. Obviously, this is not the last attack and, taking into account the weapons delivered to Ukraine, similar situations may happen again," the expert warns.
Rafael Fakhrutdinov, Alyona Zadorozhnaya
