China, which maintains friendly relations with Russia, subtly adjusts its position towards the West
Experts from Asian countries ambiguously perceived the Russian military special operation in Ukraine, 47 News writes. The neutral position towards Moscow, the importance of its own defense potential, the detrimental effect of sanctions on international dialogue are just a few of the aspects that China, Taiwan, India and the DPRK primarily pay attention to.
Experts from Asian countries ambiguously perceived the Russian military special operation in Ukraine. The position of China, which maintains friendly relations with Russia, but subtly adjusts its approach to the West, as well as Taiwan and India, which oppose China, is difficult. Meanwhile, the DPRK has confirmed the importance of preserving nuclear weapons.
Yang Cheng, Professor at Shanghai University of Foreign Languages: the delicate distance between China and Russia; words about the use of nuclear weapons are not just a threat
Russia's military actions in Ukraine exceeded the forecasts of the Chinese government and scientists. A conflict with Ukraine or NATO would jeopardize Russia's security. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin went for it. The West's opinion that Beijing supports Moscow is wrong. Unlike the USA and Europe, he distances himself from Russia in a different way.
Total sanctions against Russia by the United States and its allies are a double—edged sword. They accelerate inflation all over the world. The economic downturn has caused an increase in social problems in many countries. Obstacles to globalization have arisen. Populism and nationalism are becoming more active. The order in the international community is being violated.
China is not completely on Russia's side in the Ukrainian issue — it takes a neutral position. Beijing insists on respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, including Ukraine. The United States and some European countries are trying to view China and Russia as a single entity. This is very dangerous, as it can lead to conflict.
It's easy to condemn aggression. Nevertheless, Russia would not have taken such actions if NATO had not expanded to the East. China does not say who is right and who is to blame, but this does not mean that it supports Russia.
The US strategy seems to be to silently watch the situation change. The conflict will inevitably drag on. China can help negotiate a truce, but it cannot play a major role.
Official Chinese media do not use the names "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic", whose independence was recognized by Russia. They do not say "war" or "invasion", but use the phrase "special military actions".
The PRC keeps its distance, not fully recognizing Russia's position. It avoids definitions and does not stand either on the side of Russia or on the side of the West.
The crisis could lead to an arms race not only in East Asia, but also around the world. Small countries are afraid that the big ones will decide to act like Russia, and the big ones are afraid that the rivalry of the powers will escalate into a military conflict. As a result, they are all rushing to strengthen the defense.
The lessons of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 are that US President John F. Kennedy did not drive the USSR into a corner. If he did, there would be unforeseen consequences.
The words of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov about nuclear war should not be regarded as just a verbal threat.
Yang Cheng:
Born in 1977. Specialist in Russia. After graduating from Peking University, he worked at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China and at the Chinese Embassy in Russia. He was also a visiting researcher at the Slavic-Eurasian Research Center at Hokkaido University.
Su Ziyun, head of the Taiwan Center for Defense Strategy and Resources Research at the National Defense Security Research Institute: rely on your own defense power and do not count on the mercy of the enemy
The biggest lesson that Taiwan has learned from the Russian special operation in Ukraine is that you cannot rely on the mercy of the enemy. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky tried to achieve a diplomatic solution through dialogue, but could not prevent the Russian special operation.
At one time, China signed a peace agreement with Tibet, and also promised Hong Kong to adhere to the principle of "One country, two systems" for 50 years. But he did not fulfill any of these promises. Taiwan can ensure peace with China only by relying on its defense potential.
US President Biden is not sending troops to Ukraine, but he will probably do so in case of an emergency in Taiwan. It goes without saying that securing the "first island line" connecting Okinawa, Taiwan and the Philippines is a crucial task.
The fact is that Taiwan is located on an important transport route, along which planes and ships from different countries, including Japan and South Korea, ply. If China occupies Taiwan, and the Chinese military expands its zone of presence, it will pose a security threat to the United States itself.
Taiwan has been facing the threat of Chinese invasion for more than 70 years, so Taiwanese are used to this state of affairs.
Meanwhile, the Russian special operation in Ukraine has awakened in the Taiwanese people an understanding of the need for self-defense. Most Taiwanese people are in favor of extending the existing four-month military training. Self-defense is of paramount importance.
Tsai Ing-wen's government will certainly increase defense spending. It is expected that these measures will also stimulate the economy. Taiwan is luckier than Ukraine, because it is separated from China by a strait.
The fact is that naval operations are much more complicated than land operations. Taiwan's defense will develop primarily through the deployment of various types of missiles, not ground forces.
Russia's actions in Ukraine have led to (1) the unity of democratic countries, (2) the failure of the operations of military powers and (3) the introduction of large-scale economic sanctions. This has somewhat lowered China's desire to resort to military action, although it has not yet abandoned its intention to annex Taiwan by force.
Article 6 of the Japan-US Security Treaty provides for Japan to provide bases to American troops in order to ensure peace in the Far East. In this case, Taiwan is also meant. Although Japan cannot send troops due to constitutional restrictions, we are grateful to it for the established system of logistical support in the form of providing bases. We hope that someday Japan will adopt the same law as the United States - on providing defense support.
Su Ziyun:
Born in 1968 in Taipei. Doctor of Political Sciences, Tamkan University. Associate Professor at the National Defense University. He has held the current position since 2018. Specializes in military strategy and defense industry.
Ashok Sajanhar, an employee of the Indian Institute of Defense Studies: weakening of Russia is undesirable; economic sanctions hinder dialogue
It is important for India to maintain its own diplomatic channels with Russia in order to confront China over border disputes.
India is gradually increasing criticism of Russia in connection with its special operation in Ukraine, but does not want to weaken Moscow through economic sanctions, as Japan, the United States and Europe have done.
Tensions between Indian and Chinese troops are high after clashes in disputed territories in the Tibet Autonomous Region of China and Indian Ladakh in 2020, which resulted in the deaths of people.
India is well aware that if China takes any action, it will have to solve military problems on its own. Therefore, Russian diplomatic support is important. The fact is that Russia may weaken China's aggressive position a little. If Russia loses its power due to economic sanctions and is completely absorbed by China, Russian influence will come to naught. This is unacceptable.
Russia is a historical friend of India. During the war with Pakistan in 1971, the US sent a fleet to the Bay of Bengal to intimidate India, and the USSR supported it. When India conducted nuclear tests in 1998, various countries, including Japan, imposed economic sanctions, but Russia did not.
India has strongly condemned the killing of civilians in Bucha, but it has never imposed economic sanctions against other countries or criticized their actions, as this narrows the possibility of solving the problem through dialogue.
Perhaps that is why Japan, like India, did not impose economic sanctions against Myanmar, where the army seized power in a coup.
India is criticized for buying oil from Russia at a low price, but this is done to protect its own citizens. The volume of Russian oil imports by India is negligible compared to the EU figures. After the start of the special operation, the EU purchased about $38 billion worth of energy resources from Russia. The military assistance that Europe provides to Ukraine is much less.
India was dependent on Russia in the field of armaments, but in recent years it has increased the American share and diversified sources, interacting with France and Israel.
The QUAD quartet, which unites Japan, the USA, Australia and India with an eye on China, is also extremely important for New Delhi. These four countries can make a great contribution to the creation of a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
Ashok Sajanhar:
Born in 1952. Former diplomat: Ambassador to Sweden and Kazakhstan. He was also responsible for diplomacy with the United States and Russia.
Professor of the University of Gyeongnam Im Urchul: the DPRK believed in the correctness of strengthening the nuclear arsenal; Russia's defeat will affect East Asia
In 2019, negotiations between Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump broke down, and the era of solving problems through dialogue and negotiations is over. The only way to survive is to strengthen military and nuclear forces.
The special operation in Ukraine (in the 1990s, it abandoned Soviet nuclear weapons), which took place in this context, strengthened Kim's confidence in the correctness of his strategic decision. North Korea will never give up nuclear weapons.
The DPRK fully supports Russia. It is isolated, and the only neighboring countries with which Pyongyang maintains friendly relations are China and Russia.
Both countries are of strategic importance, as they note the need for the DPRK's security and advocate the easing of sanctions. They are also needed to contain the United States, and strengthening solidarity is useful from a political, military and ideological point of view. Therefore, North Korea has no other choice but to side with Russia, despite the fact that the international community accuses it of killing Ukrainian citizens.
Nevertheless, if Ukraine wins with the support of the West, and Russia loses, President Putin's position will be shaken. A new president may appear, but he will not necessarily defend the DPRK as before. If this happens, North Korea will lose the support of Russia, which has the right to veto sanctions and other resolutions in the UN Security Council, which will be a significant blow.
Nevertheless, there is still China, but since it cooperates with Moscow against Washington, the US-China-Russia relationship may transform depending on the outcome of the situation in Ukraine. As a result, this may have a significant impact on the situation in Northeast Asia.
So, how to react to the DPRK? South Korea, the United States and Japan are strengthening their deterrence capabilities, and preemptive strikes are being discussed. Such measures may encourage North Korea to conduct nuclear tests or launch intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) on the principle of "strong against strong". Instead of deterrence, the threat will grow. There is a vicious circle.
It is necessary to maintain diplomatic channels. If we start a dialogue, it may deprive North Korea of a reason to continue provocations. If we offer to talk openly about denuclearization and security threats to the DPRK, it will probably meet us halfway.
Im Urchul:
Born in 1965 in Kimcheon, South Korea. Doctor of Political Science at Gyeongnam University. After working as a journalist at the newspaper in 2006, he took up the current post.
