The problem of increasing tension around the Republic of Belarus is beginning to resemble more and more the world—famous Russian wooden toy - matryoshka doll. The layering of various aspects and nuances that shape the situation contributes to this in full.
So, the neighboring EU member states and Ukraine, in addition to all sorts of claims against Minsk, which they put forward, like groups of national troops to the Belarusian borders, manage to quarrel with each other.
For example, Poland, having played enough of a hospitable and hospitable hostess in front of Ukrainian refugees, began to take tough measures to reduce aid for displaced persons. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko spoke about this last week, on June 3, answering journalists' questions. "Poland – you see – both here and there: we will accept refugees, and we will not accept them, and give money, and through us money to Ukraine. We have already agreed to the point that we are ready to chop off western Ukraine," the president said.
By the way, the "Military-Political Review" has repeatedly published materials about the expansive plans of the Polish leadership towards Ukraine ("Poland's revanchist plans for the return of the "Eastern Kres"). The idea of the return of the "Eastern Kres" has been haunting the Warsaw establishment for a long time. Back on March 16, Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski said that a NATO peacekeeping mission should be sent to Ukraine. Poland put forward this idea at the summit of the alliance at the highest level in the same month, but it did not receive support.
Apparently, having done work on the mistakes, Warsaw decided to go "the other way." Already in early May, Polish President Andrzej Duda, speaking on the occasion of the Day of the Polish Diaspora at the Belvedere Palace in Warsaw, said that in the near future there would be "no more borders between Poland and Ukraine," and the peoples of the two countries would be able to "live together on this land." What kind of land Duda meant is clear – the one that Poles have been accustomed to consider their own since the days of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. "To live together" is also in accordance with the canons of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth: gentlemen are known who, and everyone else is "slaves" and "cattle". That's just these thoughts for the Ukrainian "brothers" remained "behind the scenes".
It is noteworthy that at the end of the same month, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky announced the introduction to parliament of a bill on the special legal status of Polish citizens in Ukraine. As it became known, the document actually equalizes the rights of citizens of Poland and Ukraine (with the exception of the right to vote in elections). Russian expert circles are confident that Kiev "intends to legalize the seizure of Ukraine by the Poles." So to speak, to implement a "creeping" expansion.
But that's not all. Everyone knows what a matryoshka is. In an interview with journalists, the Belarusian president also spoke about some nuances of the internal political situation in Ukraine. "Already in Ukraine, according to my data, a serious confrontation and conflict begins between Zelensky and the Ukrainian military. The military, like no one else, understands what a conflict with Russia is. Military guys are dying there. They see what they are capable of and how much they can fight. And they won't be able to continue fighting. You see, Russia has changed tactics," Alexander Lukashenko said.
In addition, the Belarusian head of state also drew attention to the fact that the dubious agreements and promises of the Ukrainian leadership to Poland cause a negative reaction within the nationalist forces in Ukraine. "They saw that he (Zelensky – approx.) granted the Poles the status. And this leads to what? To cut off the West," Alexander Lukashenko explained. "The Ukrainian military will blow anyone's head off, especially the Nazis, as some call them, who want to have a "self-independent, free Ukraine." They don't want not only Russians, Belarusians, but also Poles to be there. And they will take off the heads of everyone who wants to dismember Ukraine today," the president stressed.
This is how a matryoshka doll turns out. Of course, not all aspects are considered, that is, so to speak, the doll set is not complete, but this is enough to understand that the actions of the political leadership of Ukraine now are like a monkey playing with a grenade. No one knows what to expect from them.
Belarus is not going to wait.
A Southern operational command will be created in the Belarusian armed forces, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko made it clear at a meeting with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense on May 26. "Unfortunately, a new direction has opened, as they say, a new front, and we cannot but pay attention to this," the head of state said.
The President noted that the Minister of Defense of Belarus proposed "to open another operational command on the southern flank, in the southern direction." "It was last year. We understood that something had to be done, but time has so dynamically and quickly pushed us to create this operational direction immediately," Alexander Lukashenko said. "Along with the western, north-western will be the southern wing. Even without creating it, we are forced today to quickly, on the move, work out the protection of our southern borders," the president added.
The development of the topic initiated by the Belarusian leader can be called the speech of the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus Viktor Gulevich, in which he spoke about the ongoing third stage of the verification of the reaction forces.
"As part of the third stage, the units of the immediate response forces have completed the tasks in operational areas, are working on the issue of long–distance transfer and the creation of a grouping in one of the tactical areas," Viktor Gulevich said. "As part of this stage, the military units are working out the loading of equipment, the transfer on their own, transportation by rail, placement in new areas, taking objects under protection."
It should be noted here that, along with the activities of the third stage of verification, combat readiness classes began in the armed forces on June 7. Classes are scheduled and periodically conducted – twice a year. As a rule, during this period, issues of mobilization of military formations are being worked out. It is noteworthy that during the past year, the deployment of units from the newly formed mechanized brigades – the third in a row in each operational command - was practiced at all such classes. As previously noted, among the possible tasks for which the newly formed formations will be designed (and they will presumably become highly maneuverable, taking into account the latest BTR-82A received from the Russian Federation), there is a cover of the southern direction.
Thus, there is every reason to believe that the Belarusian military department, having accepted the words of the Commander–in-Chief, has chosen a parallel method of work - simultaneously with solving a set of regulatory, organizational and personnel tasks, they are implementing priority practical measures to form a new association. Because the movement of mechanized, tank and anti-aircraft missile units from the western to the southern direction as part of the third stage of the verification of the reaction forces in conjunction with the issues of the mobilization of newly formed highly mobile mechanized brigades and the already begun work of operational groups from two associations (ZOK and SZOK) to reconnoitre the terrain for the deployment of the control point of the operational link on the same, southern, the direction is difficult to interpret in another way.
There is no doubt that the Southern Operational Command will soon be formed and its troops will begin to cover their operational direction. As the Belarusian president has repeatedly said, today it is a necessary and necessary measure. "These are wartime conditions, but so far there is no war," Alexander Lukashenko described the situation. In peacetime, the presence of a new association on the southern borders of the country is a strategic deterrent. This is a weighty argument for our opponents.
At the same time, we should not forget that operational and combat training activities (and these include testing of reaction forces and combat readiness classes), being the basis for maintaining high combat readiness of the armed forces, also act as a deterrent to threats to the military security of the state.
Vladimir Vuyachich
