Military expert Dmitry Kornev — about the rearmament of the Strategic Missile Forces into four complexes at once and how this is related to the geopolitical situation
This year, a unique event in modern history will take place in the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN). According to media reports, citing sources in the military department, four new missile regiments will be on combat duty until the end of 2022. And, very likely, they will be equipped with four different missile systems!
It should be emphasized that this will not lead to a general increase in the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). We are talking about the ongoing systematic rearmament of the Strategic Missile Forces. According to official reports of the Ministry of Defense and open sources, it is not difficult to estimate what kind of shelves they will be and how they will be re-equipped.
Firstly, in the Tver region, a new regiment armed with mobile complexes with solid-fuel intercontinental missiles "Yars" will arrive in the 7th Guards Rezhitsky Division (Ozerny / Bologoe-4). After complete rearmament on combat duty, it will have nine mobile launchers. Each Yars can carry up to six separable individual guidance warheads (depending on the missile configuration option).
On conventional "Yars", so—called light combat units are used - each with a capacity of 150 thousand tons equivalent to a conventional explosive. These are several compositions of explosives, and there are more than one such block on each rocket. The range of the Yars is 10-11 thousand km, the deviation of hitting the target is no more than 150 m. A very effective and reliable missile system that is extremely difficult to track and impossible to stop.
Secondly, a new regiment of Avangard complexes will take up combat duty in the 13th Orenburg Red Banner Missile Division in the city of Yasny. This will be the second regiment with the "Vanguards" — the first regiment in the same division was fully equipped with six mine launchers last year. Probably, the completion of the second regiment of the new missile system will also be carried out gradually, and in 2023 the part will leave not yet fully re-equipped.
Avangard is the world's first strategic complex with hypersonic aeroballistic combat equipment. Each rocket carries one controlled combat unit, which, moving along a special gentle trajectory, almost along the boundary of the atmosphere, can perform maneuvers at cosmic speeds both in height and direction. This ensures almost complete invulnerability to modern missile defense systems.
There is no information on the characteristics of the Avangards in the open press, but it can be assumed that each such controlled combat unit carries a thermonuclear warhead with a capacity of 500 kilotons to 1 megaton of TNT equivalent. Taking into account the fact that the "Vanguards" will be aimed at the most important goals such as headquarters, decision—making centers and bases of strategic systems, such an increased power of charges is both understandable and justified - nothing should remain of the goal.
Thirdly, the 8th Division of the Strategic Missile Forces in the Kirov region will receive a new missile regiment with the Yars ICBM. It is reported that the division will receive exactly the "Yars", but earlier it was in it that the Sirena command complexes of the system for bringing the order for the use of nuclear weapons to the command posts of the units and formations of the Strategic Missile Forces and other types of strategic nuclear forces, launchers and nuclear submarines "Perimeter-RC" were deployed. Western observers have already noted that Russia is testing a new command missile system based on the Yars — Sirena-M ICBM.
Of course, nothing is known about the tests of this missile system, but it seems to me that it is quite possible to bet — what if the deployment of a new system begins in 2022? This is expected, given that the old command missiles based on the Topol ICBM have already passed their warranty period. All conventional "Poplars" have already been decommissioned and are not used by the Strategic Missile Forces. At the same time, it is quite likely that the deployment of ordinary "Yars" in Jurye is also possible — in the current situation, there cannot be few of them.
Finally, fourthly, "Sarmat". The new heavy liquid ICBM is already familiar to many readers: this is the newest and most powerful intercontinental missile in the world with unique capabilities to deliver a wide range of combat loads at any range and in any direction.
The first missile regiment with "Sarmatians" will appear in the 62nd missile Uzhur Missile Division in the Krasnoyarsk Territory. The novelties will replace the heavy R-36M2 "Voevoda" ICBMs that are being decommissioned in mine launchers. Probably, this year the new regiment will only begin to be equipped with Sarmatians, since tests of this missile are still underway — the first rocket launch was carried out on April 22, 2022. And taking into account the complexity of the missile system, it is desirable to perform several more successful launches before taking into service. Most likely, the summer and autumn of this year will be rich in test launches.
What will the Sarmat missiles carry? There is no exact information, for obvious reasons, but it is believed that the first variant will be equipped with conventional ballistic warheads, probably with a capacity of 300 to 500 kilotons. Apparently, there will be at least 10 blocks on each ICBM, and maybe much more.
Later, after additional tests, the Sarmatians can be equipped with several hypersonic aeroballistic combat units at once — similar to the one that is already flying as part of the Avangard complex. Only here the capabilities of the Sarmat allow you to send several such "hypersonic gliders" to targets at the same time. The unique energy capabilities of the new missile will allow carrying the richest complex of means of overcoming missile defense.
These plans for 2022 are not related to the current situation in the world and are not some kind of urgent improvisation. They were announced five or six years ago. It was then that the deployment of the "Vanguards" was planned, and the launch of tests, and deliveries to the Sarmatov Strategic Missile Forces. The Yars production program generally has its roots in the mid-2000s, when the foundations were laid for rearmament with modern missile systems.
The implementation of plans for 2022 will mean that the rearmament of the Strategic Missile Forces with new and newest missile systems is entering its final phase. "Sarmat" will replace the last RVSN missile system from the 1980s - "Voevoda". Next will be the modernization or even replacement of the already Russian "Poplars-M", which were deployed in a mobile and mine version in the 1990s-2000s, as well as the development of all modern complexes: "Yarsov" and "Sarmatov".
Dmitry Kornev
