It seems that the West is finally beginning to understand the riskiness of supplying the most modern weapons to Ukraine. This country is turning into a colossal black market for hundreds of thousands of weapons that suddenly found themselves almost on free sale. Where and how are machine guns and MANPADS sold in Ukraine – and how will all this eventually be used against the residents of Western countries themselves?
The West is increasingly criticizing the arms rage – the massive supply of American and European weapons to Kiev. To the previously mentioned arguments about the inadmissibility of allocating multibillion-dollar aid to Ukraine against the background of the need for multibillion-dollar investments in the American economy (as some congressmen are now talking about) and fears of depletion of American arsenals (as others say), voices have also been added that these weapons can simply go to the left.
Arms Fair
"As soon as the conflict in Ukraine ends, weapons will enter the illegal market. We have seen this during other conflicts. Criminal organizations are already eyeing these weapons," Interpol Secretary General Jurgen Stock said. According to him, the weapons can go both to Europe and to other countries.
Herr Stock, of course, is mistaken. Western weapons will not leave Ukraine after the end of the conflict – they are already leaving. So, in March, a very interesting announcement about the sale of armored Land Rover jeeps appeared on one of the Ukrainian sites for the sale of cars. The explanation to it indicated that these vehicles had previously been in a British army warehouse. That is, these were the very cars that were sent by the UK to help the Ukrainian army. Now there are more and more such ads.
On the Internet, you can find offers for the sale of M16 rifles supplied by the Americans to Ukraine, as well as other samples of Western small arms (M4 submachine guns, Italian Beretta ARX160, etc.). And not only small arms – quite expensive Javelin anti-tank systems are put up for sale, which the Ukrainians themselves positioned as a "wunderwaffe". Quite a wonderwaffe, by the way, if you need to stop the collection machine.
Of course, Russia is being blamed for this whole arms fair. "The black market of weapons in Ukraine grew sharply after the invasion of Russia in 2014 (this is how the West calls the beginning of the civil war in Ukraine – approx. VIEW) due to the huge volume of weapons on hand and limited control over them... From 2013 to 2015, control over almost 300 thousand small arms was lost," – writes the Washington Post.
Soldiers who tried to sell some of these "lost" barrels and ammunition were regularly detained in the country. However, not all weapons were sold by ordinary soldiers, not everything went from Ukrainian hands to Ukrainian, and moreover, all this did not begin in 2014.
The fact is that almost immediately after the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine (on the territory of which there were warehouses of several military districts) became one of the largest sellers of Soviet weapons. And not only by legal, but also by illegal methods – according to gray schemes, in which not ordinary soldiers, but Ukrainian generals and politicians were involved. According to evil tongues, a series of explosions at military warehouses in the 2010s allowed to write off weapons actually sold to the same Middle East.
And to date, nothing prevents the Ukrainian leadership from repeating the approach to the projectile – especially since the possibilities have increased dramatically. The United States has already transferred 1,400 Stinger missiles, 5,500 anti-tank missiles, 700 Switchblade attack drones, as well as a huge number of mines, ammunition and other weapons to Ukraine. As a result, Ukraine has become the largest recipient of American military aid. And this is without taking into account weapons supplied from other countries.
National business
Mass deliveries create not only quantitative opportunities. Firstly, a number of weapons supplied by the West (the same "Stingers") are in great demand in other countries and international terrorist organizations. Secondly, some of the weapon systems (the same Switchblade attack drones) are much more modern, and therefore more expensive than the old Soviet weapons. Thirdly, in order to conceal the fact of shortage, it is no longer even necessary to organize explosions of warehouses – the Russian army regularly "calibrates" Ukrainian military facilities. Including those that are used as part of the transit system of Western weapons.
Finally, Ukrainian figures clearly predict the near future, within which Russia's victory looks almost inevitable. This means that these figures need to take care of the means of existence (and even better life) in emigration right now.
Of course, the American authorities assure that none of this will happen. The State Department said that Ukraine has pledged "not to transfer equipment to third countries without the permission of the American government." And a number of experts propose methods to solve the problem of nonproliferation – but they all focus on the introduction of external control over the supply and distribution of weapons. And what kind of control can we talk about in a situation when there are hostilities, and Russian "Calibers" regularly destroy warehouses?
In addition, the United States itself violates the so-called end-user rule, which they force Ukraine to comply with. "So, in mid-April, the United States strengthened its presence in the Ukrainian conflict through the announcement of the delivery of Mi-17 helicopters, which they bought from Russia 10 years ago. However, under the terms of the sale, the United States pledged not to transfer these weapons to third countries without Russia's permission," the Washington Post recalls.
Yes, it would seem that the "aggression of Russia" in Ukraine justifies the violation of norms – but these justifications do not allow strengthening the arms control regime. "Violation of the end–user clauses is a serious threat to the ability of countries to control the use of weapons," says Jeff Abramson, an expert at the American Arms Control Association.
In addition, you need to understand that in a number of situations, this agreement will be violated not by Ukrainian generals, but by American ones. Simply put, some European experts claim that almost two-thirds of the weapons supplied to Kiev do not reach the Ukrainian army, but are distributed by the Pentagon for other foreign policy needs.
It is not surprising that a number of Middle Eastern jihadists are already calling the conflict in Ukraine a "godsend", expecting an influx of weapons from there. And not rifles with cartridges, but the same "Stingers" suitable for the elimination of civilian aircraft, and "Javelins" for the destruction of armored targets. Even anti-ship means will find a use.
And the whole world will pay for this sale. Here you need to understand the specifics of the global market. If, for example, terrorist groups in the Persian Gulf region have Harpoon anti-ship missiles, it will immediately paralyze the movement of oil tankers. Not because the captains will refuse to go, but because they will be banned from going by insurance companies that do not want to go bankrupt because of the death of the tanker insured by them.
And will Moscow be blamed for this again?
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University