Military observer of Izvestia Anton Lavrov — on whether the supply of American MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones to Kiev will affect the situation at the front
In an interview with the Rossiya-1 TV channel, President Vladimir Putin said that he sees no point in supplying Ukraine with heavy drones. According to him, like other arms transfers from abroad, this will only lead to a prolongation of the conflict, but it will not change anything on the battlefield.
One of such unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which are now eagerly awaited in Kiev, should be the reconnaissance and strike MQ-1C Gray Eagle ("Gray Eagle"). This is really a high-tech novelty, the main strike drone of the US Army, designed to replace the once popular MQ—1 Predator, a pioneer in the field of large killer drones. The first Eagles entered service in 2009, but since then they have managed to undergo several major upgrades.
According to American media, the sale of them to Ukraine is now being considered by President Biden. Even after his decision, the deal will require congressional approval, but it is unlikely to take long to wait. It is reported that in the first batch there will be one complex of four vehicles, a ground control station and everything necessary for their maintenance.
A heavy, almost two-ton machine, depending on the modification and combat load, can continuously stay in the air from 12 to 36 hours. It is equipped with an extensive set of sensors, from optical and infrared, to radar. Unlike previous models of American attack drones, the Gray Eagle takes off and lands in automatic mode, which should simplify the development of the "Gray Eagle" by the Ukrainian military.
Each such vehicle can carry up to eight effective Hellfire anti-tank guided missiles. This is a more powerful ammunition than those used by the Turkish Bayraktars. An alternative option is small GBU—44/B Viper Strike gliding bombs designed to defeat light armored vehicles and vehicles. The problem with all variants of this weapon is the same — a low range, not exceeding ten kilometers.
Such drones are controlled mainly through satellite communication channels. This allows you to place operators and facilities for drone maintenance somewhere in an air defense-covered area in Western Ukraine, away from the immediate danger of MLRS strikes or attacks by tactical aviation.
In case of delivery, the drone will be the largest of all that is in service with Ukraine, not counting the deeply outdated Soviet Tu-143 "Flight". Its size also implies its main drawback — vulnerability to air defense and fighter jets.
Before the start of hostilities, the Ukrainian command had high hopes for Turkish Bayraktar TB2 reconnaissance and strike drones, which were twice as small as the MQ-1C. But it turned out that they work radically worse against an enemy with a developed air defense and aviation than against weak armies and various irregular formations.
Initially, the Ukrainians managed to achieve several successes in suicidal one-way attacks, but soon the drones simply ran out, strewing their debris with the line of contact. In early May, with the help of a new batch of drones supplied by Turkey, the APU tried to recapture the island of Snake, but even there they lost them without much effect. For almost a month, the Ukrainian command has not been able to boast of a single frame of successful attacks. In total, the Russian Defense Ministry announced several dozen destroyed UAVs for the special operation, similar in characteristics to those that the Biden administration is preparing to deliver. It was about such that Vladimir Putin expressed that "the air defense clicks them like nuts."
Russian planes are especially dangerous for the "Gray Eagles". The location of long- and medium-range anti-aircraft missile launchers is usually not a big surprise for the enemy. The areas of their possible activity are known and they can simply be flown around. But as soon as a large drone is detected by radar, it is impossible for him to escape from the plane. Compared to a fighter, the drone is almost motionless, unable to stand up for itself or evade an attack.
Spending on a high-tech MQ—1C Gray Eagle worth $ 20 million with ammunition, each of which costs another $ 150 thousand, an air defense missile or a fighter will be absolutely not a pity.
Four MQ-1C Gray Eagle on the front line will not be much more effective than the Turkish "younger brothers". Even without taking into account the air defense factor, they depend too much on the "strapping" — the powerful military infrastructure available to the United States, primarily intelligence. Perhaps Kiev will not even send them on suicide strike missions, but will prefer to use them as scouts and fire spotters. In this case, they have a chance to last a little longer, but they will not be able to change the situation at the front anyway.
With all the dubious purely military effectiveness, such a delivery will have an important symbolic significance. Perhaps Washington hopes that this will encourage other NATO allies to take similar steps.
The author is a military observer of Izvestia
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion