Wang Xianju: Russia has taken countermeasures against NATO expansion in several directions
The NATO summit is approaching, at which the participating countries will discuss the possibility of Finland and Sweden joining the alliance. Moscow cannot put everything on the Turkish veto against the expansion of the bloc, writes Huanqiu Shibao, and will use its own countermeasures. There are at least four of them.
Wang Xianju
The other day, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that if Finland and Sweden cannot meet Turkey's demands, it is unlikely that they will become candidates for NATO membership at the alliance summit to be held on June 28. Some believe that Turkey's key voice may hinder a new round of NATO expansion. However, in the end, Moscow cannot put everything only on the Turkish veto. So what other countermeasures does she have left?
If you look at Moscow's recent actions, it opposes the sixth round of NATO expansion through multilateral measures.
First, the Kremlin has issued a stern warning that a new round of expansion of the alliance will entail serious consequences. On the one hand, Moscow reminded Finland and Sweden not to misjudge the situation, stressing that the "wrong decision" of these two countries will increase regional tensions and will not strengthen their security at all. On the other hand, the Kremlin emphasized that the deployment of NATO military infrastructure facilities on their territory would inevitably lead to a response from Moscow. Russia will have to strengthen its land, naval and air power in the Baltic region, and "it will be impossible to talk about the status of denuclearization of the Baltic Sea region."
Secondly, Moscow has taken several new steps to further strengthen the role of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In mid-April, the Russian-led CSTO held a meeting of the Military Committee to "exchange views on the military-political situation and agree on the coordination of joint actions to eliminate military threats." At the meeting, it was decided to hold joint CSTO exercises in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan this fall. On May 16, the Kremlin hosted a meeting of the leaders of the six CSTO member states, at which issues such as strengthening cooperation between the participating countries and improving the collective security system were discussed. In addition, the Russian president also issued an important message that currently "it is necessary to increase cooperation with natural partners in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)," and proposed to grant the CIS observer status at the CSTO.
Thirdly, Russia has begun to pay more attention to cooperation with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Acting as the SCO chair country in 2020, Russia advocated holding a joint meeting of the defense ministers of the SCO, CIS and CSTO member states. In September of the same year, the three organizations for the first time held joint anti-terrorist exercises "Caucasus-2020". After the complete withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan, the first summit of the heads of the SCO and CSTO member states was held on September 17, 2021 to exchange views on the situation in Afghanistan. Not so long ago, CSTO Secretary General Stanislav Zas met with SCO Secretary General Zhang Ming, where he mentioned "the importance of building a single security space." Some analysts believe that in the context of the aggravation of the conflict between Russia and the United States with Europe and the further expansion of NATO, cooperation between the CSTO and the SCO may extend to more areas in the future.
Fourth, Moscow has comprehensively begun to develop the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). In the face of unprecedented economic and financial sanctions from Western countries, Russia attaches increasing importance to the role of the EAEU. On February 25 of this year, the Prime Ministers of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union held a meeting to discuss the economic situation and strengthen cooperation, and also presented a number of measures to stabilize the domestic market. On May 27, a meeting of the Supreme Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission, the supreme body of the EAEU, was held, and following the results of this summit it was stated that "The Eurasian Economic Union should develop its geo-economic advantages."
Of course, while making the most of the use of these countermeasures, Moscow is also facing factors that deter them.
First, the United States is trying its best to win over the countries of Central Asia. Shortly after Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine, on March 1, the United States held a C5+1 meeting of foreign ministers with five Central Asian countries in a videoconference format. The parties agreed to strengthen cooperation in the field of economy and security, and especially in the fields of trade, investment, energy, science and technology. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken even raised the issue of the deployment of US military bases in Central Asia, but did not receive an answer. In early March, a delegation of Uzbekistan headed by Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov paid a visit to Washington. On April 11, Biden, at a meeting with the Ambassador of Kazakhstan to the United States, said that the United States would continue to carry out constructive cooperation with Nur-Sultan on topical issues of the bilateral and regional agenda. In addition to frequent interaction in the diplomatic sphere, the United States and Central Asian countries are increasingly strengthening cooperation in the economic sphere. Uzbekistan and the United States closely cooperate in the fields of economic development, modernization of agriculture and healthcare. Recently, the parties have shown great interest in the joint construction of the Mazar-I-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway line. Last year, U.S. investments in Kazakhstan increased by 45%, and now there are more than 700 American companies operating in Kazakhstan.
Secondly, the European Union and Japan are also actively moving closer to the countries of Central Asia. On March 10, Uzbekistan launched the implementation of a "Multi-year indicative program for expanding cooperation between the European Union and Uzbekistan for 2021-2027." Within the framework of the program, from 2021 to 2024, the EU will provide Ukraine with 83 million euros of gratuitous assistance for jointly developed cooperation projects, technical assistance, support for civil society and the development of human rights. On April 15, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi held an online meeting with the foreign ministers of five Central Asian countries. The European Union and Japan are the most important allies of the United States at the moment, so the goal of their strengthening cooperation with Central Asia is obvious.
Thirdly, there are disagreements between the CSTO and the Eurasian countries over the attitude to the crisis between Russia and Ukraine. Georgia and Moldova voted for the draft resolution condemning Russia at the 11th emergency special session of the UN General Assembly on March 2; Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan abstained, and Armenia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan did not participate in the vote. In addition, Kazakhstan and other countries opposed the entry of CSTO troops into Ukraine. The Kazakh side told the media that the country will neither participate in sanctions against Russia, nor help it evade them. Taking into account these differences, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko called on the CSTO to "unite".
As tensions between Russia and Ukraine persist, the United States will undoubtedly try even harder to bribe the Central Asian countries and win them over to its side in order to further squeeze Russia's strategic security space and sphere of influence. The Central Asian countries will continue to pursue a polycentric and balanced foreign policy based on their own interests. But in general, in the game of great powers that has unfolded in Central Asia, Russia still has obvious advantages, and its influence far exceeds that of Western countries. This is due to various factors, such as history, geopolitics, national interests, regional mechanisms, and in the future it will not be possible to change this situation in a short time.
