The head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, said that now there are more than 160 Russian satellites in orbit (including military ones). According to him, "this is not enough, there should be thousands." But will the Russian economy be able to pull the development, creation and launch of thousands of spacecraft? And will our allies in other countries help us to implement this idea?
After the events of the spring of 2022, the concept of the development of cosmonautics in Russia clearly needs to be revised. When the ties developed over the years collapsed overnight, when almost all types of interaction with the West were severed, and only those where the United States and Europe simply cannot continue working without Russian participation survived – hardly any other arguments are needed. It is hardly appropriate to try to create cooperation on the powder keg of total sanctions.
However, independent developments in such a complex industry as cosmonautics are extremely complex and expensive. The task of launching thousands of satellites looks grandiose. Maybe it's worth joining forces with someone after all? But in order to understand with whom exactly it is possible and worthwhile to cooperate and be friends, you should first understand yourself. There should be a unified and clear development program at the government level, as well as an understanding of where the money will be taken from for its implementation. After understanding your own strategy, you can start joint projects.
Then what remains? If we disassemble cosmonautics into large parts, we get four main directions in which national cosmonautics can develop.
These are science (including manned cosmonautics), military space, orbital spacecraft (communications, remote sensing, geolocation, and so on) and commerce. It is clear that many parts are seriously intertwined with each other, and the same manned cosmonautics is both science and commerce (when we talk about tourists to the International Space Station). But it's still worth analyzing each direction separately and see how competitive and interesting it is in the current situation.
What has changed?
First of all, it is necessary to deal with the commercial orders of Roscosmos. In general, commerce is not among the main tasks of a state corporation. In principle, it cannot be self-supporting or at least come close to it. State cosmonautics in all countries, without exception, is financed by the state itself.
Alas, back in May 2019, all possible commercial launches of Roscosmos were in question. The Pentagon has imposed deferred sanctions against Russia, according to which, since January 2023, our country has been included in the list of countries whose services are prohibited from using during space launches. Previously, such cooperation was prohibited with China, North Korea, Iran, Sudan and Syria.
The prohibition to use the services of Russia to launch spacecraft, the creation of which uses American components, reduces the commercial possibilities of Russian cosmonautics to a minimum. Occasionally launches with space tourists are possible, but no more. You can't bet on it and use it as a basis for a space strategy, too.
It's easier with military orders. There is simply nowhere without it, and in principle, the successful implementation of the military space program has always been a priority of Roscosmos. This part will not be changed. It is practically impossible to do it with someone else - only on your own, there simply cannot be any other option in matters of security.
With projects on remote sensing of the Earth, communications, geolocation, broadband Internet access, everything is clear. These should be exclusively their own, national projects. The spring of 2022 showed that in case of strained relations between states, such services will be disconnected in the blink of an eye. Neither carefully written contracts nor the most serious and strong agreements will help. If there was even talk of a possible GPS shutdown, which would cause problems for a large number of users around the world.
Therefore, such projects should be their own – national, without the possibility of the influence of other governments on them. Therefore, international projects are not needed for their implementation, the main thing here is a clear plan and timely allocation of funds.
One of the most difficult questions is science. Russia has done many scientific projects jointly with other countries. Our devices are installed at American and European stations. Russia together with Europe worked on the implementation of the large-scale Mars project "ExoMars-2022". The success of the International Space Station is also all international projects that have been implemented largely due to the addition of forces and general funding.
Financing of Russian scientific space projects is already far from ideal. With the reduction of the Federal Space Program, both times it was scientific articles that went under the knife in the first place. Most likely, Roscosmos will continue to have to finance science on a residual basis. And here the only serious opportunity is not to reduce research, but to implement more projects.
Who are we friends with?
Then the question is: who can Russia be "friends" with in space, taking into account the above? Yes, for a long time Russia's main space partner was ESA (European Space Agency), as well as national agencies of European countries. Russia was connected with the United States by a smaller number of projects, the main of which is the International Space Station.
Russia and ESA have been working on joint Mars missions (ExoMars-2016 and ExoMars-2022). Russian Soyuz rockets were launched from the Guiana Space Center. Even the project of the best Russian X-ray observatory "Spektr–RG" used two telescopes - the Russian "Spektr-RG" and the German eROSITA. After the spring of 2022, it is unlikely to fully restore these relations. Investing in contracts that can be canceled by one of the parties for political reasons is more than a dubious idea.
Of the serious space powers, China, Japan and India remain. With Japan, for the same political reasons, it is also not worth waiting for some kind of warming. However, even before 2022, Roscosmos and JAXA did not have large and serious joint projects.
It seems that one of the most logical space allies for Russia would be China. But there are many difficulties here too. The Wolf Amendment, adopted in 2011 by the United States of America, to a certain extent made China a pariah. The inability to participate in any space scientific projects where the United States is present has forced Chinese cosmonautics to rely only on itself. On this path, China has achieved significant success and currently possesses almost all modern space technologies. Therefore, it is not worth counting on friendship with China on the principle of "financing in exchange for access to technology", as it was at the beginning of the two thousandth.
Only joint projects can be implemented with China on equal terms, such as the Lunar Automatic Station project, the roadmap of which was presented in June 2021. That is, Russia needs its own developments and achievements, as well as seriously prescribed agreements. There are no other options for cooperation, at least China knows that it will cope on its own.
India is also far from the easiest country in terms of agreements. Separately, it is worth considering that India is likely to receive a lot of very interesting proposals from ESA in the near future. For Europeans, India is an interesting partner with the availability of a convenient spaceport and the possibility of access to it for a small amount of money for European cosmonautics. Russia and India have a long, albeit not always successful history of cooperation. What will happen next? This largely depends on how clearly both sides will be able to formulate their proposals, and on the desire of the Russian side to go through the whole "difficult dance" of negotiations with the Indians. In any case, it just won't.
What remains? No matter how banal it may be, to create a new space policy with maximum reliance only on one's own strength and finances, even if it takes many months and an increase in funding. Yes, it will have to be tightened,
optimize, it is possible to abandon some of the projects, but it will not work in any other way. This "thousand spacecraft" can only be made by ourselves. And only then "from the height of their own achievements" to offer participation in projects to foreign partners. Only in this way, the dream of being able to leave with the help of "international cooperation" should be put aside immediately. Now, as in the days of the Soviet Union, you will have to do everything yourself. Maybe it's for the best.
Mikhail Kotov
