And Erdogan is against: why should Turkey block the expansion of NATO
Turkish President Recep Erdogan did not support the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, reports "European Truth". The author understands the reasons that led Ankara to such a decision.
Yuri Panchenko
"We don't have a positive opinion on this. The Scandinavian countries are like a guest house for terrorist organizations," such a statement by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan about his readiness to veto the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO turned out to be really sensational.
Does this mean that Ankara is using its veto power? Far from a fact. NATO prefers to be optimistic about the prospects of Finland and Sweden joining.
Now everything looks similar to the fact that such a statement was rather an invitation for Western countries to bargain.
Turkey's relations with NATO have not been considered ideal for a long time. Therefore, the prospect of haggling on the eve of the accession of two new countries became an opportunity for Erdogan both to get the necessary concessions from the West and to show victory inside the country – far from superfluous, given the presidential and parliamentary elections to be held in 2023.
So what is Turkey trying to get? The peculiarity of the situation is that the declared claims look more like a "seed" to solve real problems that bother Ankara.
Invitation to negotiations
Turkey's current position seems similar to another demarche that occurred quite recently – we are talking about Hungary's threats to veto the sixth package of sanctions against the Russian Federation, primarily the embargo on Russian oil.
An analogy is added to the situation by Budapest's cautious hints that the veto issue can be solved with money, compensating Hungary for likely losses over the coming years.
Turkey behaves the same way. Immediately after Erdogan's scandalous statement, his speaker and adviser Ibrahim Kalin said that the doors for Sweden and Finland to join NATO are not closed, and all Ankara wants is negotiations with Western countries on a number of interesting issues for itself.
However, it is worth admitting that Turkey is not doing anything now that it has not done before. Let's recall 2019, when Turkey refused to support NATO's defense plan for the Baltic states and Poland, demanding more political support from the Alliance in the fight against Kurdish detachments in northern Syria.
Therefore, it would be strange if Erdogan did not take advantage of a new opportunity for another trade with the West.
Let's try to outline the key issues that Ankara would prefer to bring to the negotiations.
The first question, which was actually put forward by Erdogan (albeit in a veiled way) as the reason for Turkey's discontent, it concerns the Kurds and their struggle for independence.
It is worth recalling that the Kurdistan Workers' Party and the Syrian People's Self-Defense Forces, which are fighting for the separation of the Kurdish lands, are considered terrorist organizations in Turkey.
But political emigrants, as well as ordinary Kurdish refugees, often members of these organizations, are willingly accepted in the West, not caring about the accusations of the Turks against them. This is not only the policy of Sweden and Finland, but it so happened that due to liberal legislation and high social benefits, a significant number of Kurds settled in the Scandinavian countries.
As a result, a powerful Kurdish diaspora has emerged, and Sweden even has deputies of Kurdish origin.
It is easy to guess that this irritated the Turkish authorities.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry explained this even more bluntly. "Because of our fight against these terrorist organizations, restrictions were imposed against us on the supply of defense products, which we, including imported from countries planning to join NATO. For this reason, the majority of Turkish residents oppose the entry of these countries and ask us to block this process," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.
To this should be added the problem of followers of Fethullah Gulen, who is also considered a terrorist in Turkey – and Western countries give his followers political asylum.
It is difficult to imagine what a compromise could be here.
Sweden or Finland are unlikely to agree to change their migration legislation at the request of Erdogan. And it is even more difficult to imagine the extradition of persons with the status of political refugees to Turkey. However, it seems that this issue was raised not as a requirement, but as a reason to start a conversation.
Turkey is much more concerned about the attitude of the West to the military operation in northern Iraq – in the territory inhabited by Kurds. In addition, Turkey is planning similar actions in Syria. And the withdrawal of the Russian contingent from there significantly simplifies the implementation of such a plan. Such actions look extremely dubious from the point of view of international law, so Turkey is interested in agreeing in advance that the West should turn a blind eye to this.
However, this is not all of Ankara's demands.
The remaining requirements in no way concern either Finland or Sweden, but in some way they also concern Ukraine.
Lifting of sanctions in exchange for expansion
What other issues would Turkey prefer to bring to negotiations with the West?
The answer to this is given by the already mentioned interview with Erdogan's press secretary Ibrahim Kalin.
Where, among other things, a lot of attention is paid to the issue of organizing peace talks between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, however, "a constructive position of all parties, including the EU and the USA, is needed for negotiations."
It is no secret that Turkey is trying to avoid any steps that will negatively affect relations with Russia, including economic ones. Ankara did not join the Western sanctions against the Russian Federation, explaining that the intermediary country, they say, must maintain the trust of all parties to the conflict. However, in reality, Ankara is also trying to capitalize on sanctions, planning to increase the flow of Russian tourists.
But it is extremely unlikely that the West, and first of all the United States, will make concessions on the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for the sake of Erdogan's whims.
The concessions of the West and NATO as a whole on the issue of support for Greece and Cyprus do not look more realistic, which also irritates Turkey (especially since Greece is a member of the Alliance).
So, what then is the main purpose of Erdogan's blackmail?
It seems that Turkey's key demand is addressed specifically to the United States and concerns the issue of arms sales.
It is worth recalling that in 2019, Turkey purchased four S–400 air defense systems from the Russian Federation, paying two and a half billion dollars for them. Such a step clearly contradicted the policy of the NATO countries.
In response, the United States imposed sanctions against Turkey, banning its sale of modern Western weapons.
Recall that Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also mentioned sanctions in the sphere of the sale of defense sector products when he described the reasons why "the majority of Turkish residents are against" Finland and Sweden joining NATO. However, Cavusoglu called the reason for imposing these sanctions not the purchase of weapons from the Russian Federation, but the fight against Kurdish organizations.
Due to the sanctions imposed against Turkey, the contract for the purchase of one hundred of the newest F-35 fighters was frozen.
Subsequently, Turkey offered the United States to buy less modern F-16 fighters, threatening that if Washington refused again, it would buy Russian Su-35 and Su-57 fighters. However, then this blackmail did not work.
Immediately after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ankara again raised the issue of buying the F-16, explaining this by a sharp change in the security situation.
This argument found support in the White House, but the issue was coldly received in Congress – there Turkey was reminded of both the purchase of Russian air defense and human rights problems.
The issue of lifting US sanctions and renewing the contract for the sale of aircraft (ideally – F-35, but options are possible) is most likely the key requirement of Erdogan.
A requirement, the fulfillment of which the Turkish president will be able to sell to the electorate as a victory over the West, which would be quite useful in the conditions of the upcoming elections.
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The calmness with which Western countries perceived Erdogan's demarche confirms that such behavior did not come as a surprise to them.
Unlike Viktor Orban, Erdogan's task is not to block a decision that all other countries support until the last moment.
The Turkish president is ready to bargain and is unlikely to test the patience of the West for a long time. After all, he knows that soon there may be a new opportunity to put forward an ultimatum to the West, and therefore it is better to preserve the image of a politician with whom you can negotiate.
Another thing is how much the West is satisfied with the strategy of regular appeasement of authoritarian leaders. And how ready he is to continue to tolerate such demarches, which have been increasing lately.