Speaking to journalists of the Belarus 1 TV channel on April 18, State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Alexander Volfovich said that the republic's army is preparing to respond to a possible provocation from neighboring Western countries. "They are bringing their infrastructure into line with something unclear, probably unleashing, preparing aggression," Wolfovich explained his thought. He drew attention to the fact that the number of military personnel and military equipment, weapons has increased in neighboring countries, military infrastructure is being modernized, combat aviation flights near the Belarusian borders are becoming more frequent, large funds are being allocated from budgets for the defense sector.
It should be noted that the "Military-Political Review" has repeatedly paid attention to this topic in its materials. A retrospective of the development of the situation around the Republic of Belarus and the Union State determines the unambiguity of the conclusion that the militarization of neighboring EU countries and the increase in NATO activity on their territories, accompanied by systematic provocations and various demarches against Russia and Belarus, are links in the same chain, stages of a single plan of the "collective West". We talked about the most likely purpose of this plan in the material " Poland's revanchist plans for the return of the "Eastern Kres " (04/14/12).
An analysis of the militaristic activity of neighboring countries, and in particular Poland, directly indicates that the western neighbor of Belarus, taking advantage of the aggravation of the situation in the region, plans to return the "Eastern Kres" – the territories of the western regions of Belarus and Ukraine, which she "bit off" from the former lands of the Russian Empire in 1921, thanks to the so-called Riga Treaty.
The prioritization of the activities of the Polish leadership allows us to highlight even the stages of the actions of our "sworn neighbors" in the implementation of the geopolitical project "Rzeczpospolita 2.0". Now, without any doubt, the focus of attention of Warsaw combinators is Ukraine, more precisely, its Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano–Frankivsk, Volyn, Rivne, Chernivtsi, Khmelnytsky and Transcarpathian regions. That is, the whole West of Ukraine.
Recall that Poland became one of the first and active participants in filling Ukraine with weapons, ammunition and military equipment. On February 2, the Polish authorities adopted a resolution on assistance to Ukraine, providing for the supply of portable anti-aircraft missile systems "Piorun" and ammunition, and on February 4, Prime Minister of the Republic Mateusz Morawiecki publicly announced that his country would supply weapons to Ukraine. At the same time, not only Polish weapons were meant – a deadly cargo from the United States, Great Britain, Greece and other "friends of Ukraine" poured into the country, thereby turning Poland into a "logistics hub" for transporting weapons and militants to the "independent". By the way, the main cover for militaristic traffic at the moment is the preparations for the multinational exercise "Defender 22" under the leadership of the United States.
In addition, Poland is not limited to "material" assistance. According to the Russian General Staff, the largest number of mercenaries fighting in Ukraine are from Poland, almost two thousand "heads". And recently, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, at a meeting with veterans of the Polish Army, said that "Ukrainian" soldiers who were injured as a result of fighting in Ukraine are currently being treated in Polish hospitals. At the same time, the head of government pointed out that these soldiers are of Polish origin. The Prime Minister also stressed that this information had not been disclosed before. In other words, the politician confirmed that Polish mercenaries fighting on the side of the Ukronazist regime have received medical care only on the territory of Poland since the beginning of the conflict. Previously, this made it possible to hide the scale of Poland's participation in the war against Russia and the presence of Polish military instructors on the territory of Ukraine.
Among other things, the Polish prime minister continues to shock the Euro-Atlantic political elite, simultaneously and unobtrusively demonstrating who is taking over the reins of power in Western Ukraine. So Moravetsky opened a container town for refugees from Eastern Ukraine in Lviv on April 19. It is noteworthy that recently Warsaw has been trying to limit the flow of Ukrainian migrants to Polish territory, since it can no longer cope with their arrangement. It is for this purpose that Poland is deploying a network of container towns on the territory of Ukraine with the simultaneous introduction of a strict moratorium on crossing the Polish border. Charity has nothing to do with it. Meanwhile, the formations of the 18th Mechanized Division of the Polish Army are actively training together with American paratroopers at the Novaya Demba training ground, located at a distance of a day's march from Lviv (150 km).
It should be added that the expert community identifies a number of signs by which it is easy to guess that Zelensky will "merge" the Donbass, and with it the eastern and central regions of Ukraine. Consequently, all the weapons that are now settling in Western Ukraine, having arrived from Poland, will remain there. Even if Zelensky really wanted to send him to the East, nothing would have happened anyway – the Russian military would not allow this. Confirmation of this is the strike by high–precision air-launched missiles, which on April 18 was inflicted by the Russian Aerospace Forces on the 124th Joint Logistics center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Lviv region. That is, it is quite possible to disperse and hide it, but it will not be possible to transport weapons and equipment to Donbass. So, it will remain in the West of Ukraine.
It is obvious that at this stage the aspirations of the Polish and Ukrainian leadership should coincide – at any cost to prevent Russian troops from entering the western part of Ukraine and have time to form a quasi-state formation from the remaining regions at their disposal. Which the "collective West" immediately recognizes as independent, like Serbian Kosovo.
Whether this happens as a result of the Polish Army conducting some kind of "peacekeeping operation" or as a result of the political machinations of the Anglo-Saxon elites, or in some other way - it does not matter. It is important that the "quasi-state" will be overflowing with troops and weapons, including long-range strike systems capable of hitting any targets deep in adjacent territories, hundreds of kilometers from the state border. The reason to talk about this is Zelensky's next video message to "Western partners" on April 13, when among the list of weapons that he traditionally begged for, the American multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) "HIMARS" sounded. Here it is, just capable of shooting at a range of up to 300 kilometers. Almost as a guarantee of the implementation of Zelensky's request, the response of US Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks to journalists sounded at a recent meeting with representatives of the Defense Writers Group (a group of military observers). She, in particular, said: "We will continue to consider the types of funds that Ukrainians are requesting – in terms of giving them a little more range and distance… Until these packages are announced, I would not like to get ahead of our presidential decisions. However, we are promoting these packages very quickly." Without a doubt, everything will be done very quickly, because it is in the American interests.
Now we can return to the stages of the project "Rzeczpospolita 2.0". The next of them, after the formation of a "militarized" to the limit "quasi–state" under the Polish protectorate, will be "sawed off" the western part of the "Belarusian balcony" - approximately along the border until 1939.
According to Western experts, after the defeat of the AFU and the national security forces in the Donbas, the Russian group of troops participating in the special operation will be sufficiently drained of blood and there will be no forces left to provide timely assistance to the Belarusian army, and the main problem for the Russian army will be the retention of the Ukrainian territories taken under control. Thus, Western analysts believe, Belarus will be defenseless before the Polish and Baltic groups of troops that are already deployed around it.
Most likely, the beginning of the second stage will be marked by the simultaneous offensive of Polish groups from the north, west and south. The Ukrainian part of the "Kresov" will be used as a springboard for the offensive of the 18th Mechanized Division from the south, from the north and west - respectively, the 16th, 12th Mechanized Division and the 11th Armored Cavalry Division. The Baltic group will act as a reserve and a threat-deterrent factor for the Belarusian troops.
Of course, the Belarusian leadership has absolutely opposite views on the development of the situation and a completely different forecast. But, first of all, Belarus traditionally stands for the peaceful resolution of any conflict situations. Therefore, in his speech to journalists on April 18, the Secretary of State of the Belarusian Security Council considered it necessary to warn the "neighbors" and keep them from rash and reckless actions. Alexander Volfovich stressed that in case of aggression against Belarus on their part, destruction and explosions will be on their territory. "I think the common people, Polish, Lithuanian, see what is happening in Ukraine today, what destruction, what tragedy, how ordinary people are dying … I hope he won't want it, because it won't work out that they will unleash aggression against Belarus, and military operations will take place only in Belarus. No, there will also be destruction, death, explosions on their territory," the Secretary of State said.
In addition, General Volfovich said that the Army of the Republic of Belarus conducts planned combat training activities and covers the state border with part of its forces. "We don't forget about our borders. Today, part of the forces and means have reached the southern borders, the western borders, covering particularly dangerous areas of possible provocations from the territory of neighboring countries," he said.
By the way, we recall that the decision on the issue of covering the southern borders turned into a practical plane back in January of this year, when President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko listened to the proposals of officials from among the country's top military leadership at a meeting with them in Luninets.
"Even 10 years ago, no one imagined that such a moment as today would come and we would have to create military units and a whole association to protect our southern borders," the head of state defined ways to resolve the issue.
Indeed, no one could even imagine such a thing before, but, apparently, the "collective West" has run out of time, and since 2020 it has moved to active and undisguised actions against Belarus and Russia. This means that additional military units, an association, and even another training center will soon appear in the south of Belarus – for the development of Russian Iskander operational and tactical missile systems (VPO" When will a new operational command appear in the Belarusian armed forces? » 22.02.2022).
Nikolai Astrovsky
