A garbage dump in the orbit of the planet threatens the development of cosmonautics
For half a century, people have become accustomed to the constant availability of communications, television broadcasting, satellite navigation, information about weather conditions and other benefits of civilization. Benefits that, oddly enough, may be limited in the next 25-30 years.
In recent years, there has been a disdainful attitude towards the issue of anthropogenic clogging of outer space with debris.
Currently, there are more than 23 thousand observed and catalogued artificial space objects larger than 10 cm in outer space. These are both active spacecraft and failed satellites and launch vehicle stages, fragments of exploded or collided vehicles.
Smaller particles, which are not visible, are orders of magnitude larger. And the uncontrolled crumble of such uncounted fragments flies at speeds relative to active satellites from 1 thousand to 15 thousand m / s. Imagine a steel ball with a volume of about 1 cubic cm . This is a bullet weighing 7.9 g. Imagine a cube measuring 5x5x5 cm – this is a grenade weighing a kilogram.
Flying in any way, including on intersecting courses, the debris poses a real threat to spacecraft, including manned ones. The disastrous consequences of such collisions are difficult to simulate, cannot be repeated experimentally on earth, but it is easy to assume.
It's like driving on a motorway without following the rules, but with incredible speeds. And people are still doing everything to make the problem worse.
Let us recall in chronological order the latest actions of the military of different countries of the world concerning the pollution of the space environment.
Since the beginning of the XXI century, four countries have tested anti-satellite weapons. The first is China, which carried out an experiment on January 11, 2007 to intercept its own satellite at an altitude of 850 km. The test, having formed more than 2,600 large fragments, increased the contamination of long-lived hazardous debris from relatively "clean" and sparsely populated orbits by 22% at once.
It was followed by the United States, destroying the experimental spy satellite USA-193 from Earth on February 21, 2008 at an altitude of 293 km, producing 174 large cataloged fragments of orbital debris.
In March 2019, it was the turn of India, which carried out tests to intercept its satellite at an altitude of 300 km, which disintegrated into 400 fragments. The launch, according to the Hindus, made the state a "military space power".
And finally, on November 15, 2021, Russia conducted tests of anti-satellite weapons. In orbit with a perigee of 465 km and an apogee of 490 km, a missile of the missile defense system shot down a spent satellite of radio intelligence "Cosmos-1408". Officials say that the satellite was hit with "jewelry precision" and the debris does not threaten anyone.
The explosion–like destruction produced a huge amount of debris - at the end of November 2021, 1,500 only observed, large fragments of the affected satellite were reported in the altitude range from 300 to 1100 km. Theoretically, the destruction of the device with a mass of a ton can lead to the appearance of up to 100 thousand dangerous 10 gamma particles.
During November 15, 2021, the threat of a collision with space debris was announced three times on the International Space Station. The crew had to put on spacesuits several times and take seats in spaceships in case of emergency evacuation.
The actions of the military of all four countries to intercept satellites are understandable. To work out and demonstrate the level of technology, improve negotiating positions with a potential opponent, etc. But we should not forget about the negative consequences of such actions – this is an anti-example of action for other space powers. The lack of professionalism or indifference of the interception organizers regarding the problem of dangerous clogging of airless space is surprising.
As a rocket scientist with many years of experience in the development of anti-missile and anti-space defense systems, I have to clearly explain the above. To do this, let's remember the story.
The USSR was the first country in the world to develop and put into service a space interception system. Since the beginning of the 60s, more than 40 spacecraft of the IS system ("satellite fighter") developed by NPO Mashinostroenie have been launched. The possibilities of destroying satellites in space have been demonstrated to the whole world. During the tests, which were carried out at altitudes from 400 to 2030 km, the fighter satellite was put into orbit of the target, approached it, firing a cloud of "shrapnel".
We were already thinking about the clogging of space at that time – it was preferable to place a fighter in front of the target in the direction of movement, with a shot "backwards" so that the affected particles descended to Earth at an accelerated rate. In the future, shrapnel was to be created on the basis of materials developed that were rapidly degradable under the influence of sunlight.
But, despite the removal from combat duty in 1993, the remaining 18 spacecraft of the IS system and individual fragments of destroyed satellites and targets will still be in space for hundreds of years. You can read about the system, for example, in the 2015 book "The History of the development of domestic automatic spacecraft", volume three of the series "Development of Domestic Rocket and Space Science and Technology" by the publishing house "Stolichnaya Encyclopedia".
It is known that satellites and their fragments descend quickly from orbits up to 200 km under the influence of the residual atmosphere – within a few weeks. From a height of 300 km – several months, and from a height of 500 km – about ten years. In particular, the model of the spacecraft "Condor" developed by NPO Mashinostroenie, launched in 2003 at an altitude close to the orbit of the intercepted "Cosmos-1408" (458 km), burned up in the Earth's atmosphere after 12 years.
Satellites flying above are disposed of much longer: from a height of 700 km – about 100 years, from 1000 km – over 1000 years, from a height of 1500 km – more than 7000 years!
Let's recall the story of 1973 with the depressurization of the Salyut-2 military orbital station at an altitude of approximately 257 km as a result of a collision with debris from the explosion of the last stage of the Proton-K launch vehicle. American observers then counted 70 large fragments flying at speeds up to 300 m/s. The increment of the orbital velocity in such an orbit by 100 m / s in the direction of flight in accordance with the rules of space ballistics gives an increase in the apogee of the orbit by almost 360 km. The same increment of speed perpendicular to the direction of flight from the Ground gives an increase in altitude by 100 km. And if the impact speed is increased by 300 m / s? The fragments can go to the Earth, or they can go away from it, increasing the period of dangerous stay in space by hundreds and thousands of years.
Everything in the military sphere in space has already been created and tested. Why repeat the past? In addition, the USA and the USSR developed super-effective weapons capable of destroying satellites back in the 60s of the XX century. These are high-altitude nuclear explosions in outer space that create powerful electromagnetic pulses and relatively long-lived artificial radiation belts that massively burn satellite electronics.
Now the closest attention should be paid to civilian conquerors and space debris. The project of launching 4408 Starlink satellites of SpaceX is being implemented! 1,842 vehicles have already been launched, most of them into an orbit with a height of 550 km. The second part of the first-generation Starlink grouping will contain 7518 MCAS. The grouping of the second generation, according to some reports, will be up to 30 thousand satellites in orbits in the altitude range from 328 to 614 km, placed by the United States without coordination with other states. Thus, the number and mass of the withdrawn vehicles of the Starlink grouping alone will be comparable to the number of space debris fragments currently in orbit tracked today.
But the European OneWeb project is also developing to launch 648 Internet communication satellites to an altitude of about 1100-1200 km and 358 units have already been launched.
In a decade, these vehicles will fail, becoming simply unmanageable junk and creating unprecedented congestion of narrow orbital layers with space debris, with an uncontrolled increase in the number of collisions. And in parallel, the resumption of groupings will be carried out with a new increase in the number of new vehicles in orbit.
A clear case of a collision in 2009 of satellites – the Russian Cosmos-2251 and the American Iridium 33 – at an altitude of 788 km, which gave rise to more than 600 cataloged, large fragments.
Reckless littering of space will lead to the fact that the vital sphere of humanity, providing communication, television, navigation, will be lost to man. According to A.I. Nazarenko's Russian model of space pollution presented at the UN, already at the present time, with a hypothetical simultaneous termination of space launches, the amount of dangerous debris (observed and small-sized) will double every five years due to collisions of artificial objects. But, as life shows, although it is known, it is not realized.
In my publications, I have repeatedly warned about the need to stop the uncontrolled launch of spacecraft. It seems rational to equip vehicles operating at altitudes up to 500 km with active-type braking devices (engines) or passive-type (aerodynamic parachutes) that accelerate the satellite's descent from orbit and burn up in the Earth's atmosphere after completion of work. There are such developments in Russia.
For altitudes of more than 500 km, it is necessary to introduce a set of measures to increase the operational life and disposal of spent spacecraft, including:
– equipping satellites with de-orbiting engines;
– rational placement of satellite groupings with limitation of working planes and flight heights;
– creation of vehicles with the possibility of extending the service life, repair and refueling in space, implementation of the satellite collection scheme in compact areas of the orbit for servicing groups;
– creation of maneuvering vehicles – repair bases;
– when launching new satellites, it is planned to equip the last stages of launch vehicles with means of capturing and removing spent vehicles.
The above especially applies to the need to preserve the geostationary orbit – a circular orbit unique to civilization at an altitude of 35,786 km above sea level. This is an area of outer space where space communication, broadcasting, and reconnaissance systems are located, and while on which satellites seem to hover over a certain point of the Earth. To protect such an orbit, a set of measures is needed to extend the life of satellites, repair and refuel them, followed by the mandatory transfer of spent spacecraft to burial orbits located closer to Earth.
Obviously, the technical issues of garbage control are economically costly and still commercially unprofitable. The united efforts of all the countries of the space club, initiated by strong-willed political decisions, are needed. It is necessary to oblige private firms launching spacecraft or launch vehicles to return these objects to the Earth's atmosphere after the completion of the mission. In case of failure of the satellites, they must be taken out of orbit by space tugs. States may have to introduce a "recycling" or "environmental" fee – for measures to remove vehicles from orbit.
At the same time, the activities of regulators – ministries and departments – should be coordinated at the interstate level, for example, the UN. The UN Security Council should also ban the use of nuclear weapons in outer space (in the form of orbiters or ballistic warheads) as a means of mass disabling of satellites and littering.
The Russian Federation can and should act at the international level as an initiator of work to protect space, and not set an example of its pollution.
With this article I appeal to statesmen, engineers, specialists, ordinary citizens of all countries. We must immediately engage in space conservation. Then it will be too late!
Herbert Efremov
Herbert Alexandrovich Efremov is an honorary academician of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics named after K.E. Tsiolkovsky.
