The management system of the regions bordering Ukraine needs to be rebuilt
At about six in the morning on April 1, a pair of Mi-24s of the Ukrainian Air Force attacked the Belgorod oil depot of JSC Belgorodnefteprodukt. To tell the truth, the attack of only one helicopter was crowned with a hit. But this was enough to set fire to eight tanks of two tons of fuel in each.
The fire was assigned an increased difficulty rank. The fire area was 1200 sq. m. The fire was extinguished by more than three hundred firefighters, 150 of whom arrived from the neighboring Kursk region. They used about 100 pieces of special equipment and two helicopters. For safety reasons, residents of three streets were evicted. The fire was completely extinguished only around 22.00.
NOT THE FIRST ATTACK
When asked about the attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky replied: "I'm sorry, I'm not discussing any of my orders as commander-in-chief. There are things that I share only with servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine when they talk to me." In other words, it was an act of aggression in a Russian city coordinated with the Ukrainian High Command.
In this regard, I would like to ask: what did we encourage in Istanbul, reducing our activity at times, in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions? An attack on our border Belgorod?
It should be noted that this is not the first action of the APU. Even at the very beginning of the operation, information appeared that the APU could have used the Tochka and Tochka-U tactical missile systems to strike the Russian city.
And on April 1, the attack of Russian settlements was not an isolated one. Just a loud fire at an oil depot obscured a smaller-scale event.
At 5.30, a rocket attack was launched on a printing house in the village of Severny, Belgorod region. Due to the shelling, the printing house was left without light, as the rocket hit the transformer, which caught fire. I had to extinguish it.
Office equipment was damaged in the printing house. The employees thought it was a helicopter strike. But a more knowledgeable person reported that fragments of a shell allegedly fired by the Grad MLRS were found at the scene.
Given the distance from the border with Ukraine to the village of Severny, most likely the fire was fired by the KrAZ-6322RA "Bastion-01" system at the maximum range. This is the Ukrainian modernization of the BM-21 Grad, which was carried out at the Shepetovsky Remzavod. Modernization allowed to increase the range of MLRS firing from 20 to 40 km. In 2008, these systems entered service with the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Investigative Committee recognized the strike on the Belgorod oil depot as a terrorist attack. The necessary measures to restructure the management system of the border regions can be described in the words: "Russia is not angry. It's time for her to focus."
TO OTHER RAILS
Russia continues to live a peaceful life. Meanwhile, we are facing a difficult special operation to win peace in Ukraine and an even more difficult one to keep it. Victory requires the restructuring of the entire system of government of the state and its transfer to the mobilization rails.
It is necessary to create new control centers in the border areas, joint – civilian and military. Or the transfer of all power in these areas to the military with the assignment of full responsibility for what is happening to them. In a rapidly changing environment, the speed of operational decision-making comes to the fore.
But the civil and law enforcement agencies of the border regions are still working in peacetime. But from Belgorod to the border with Ukraine is only 37 km. And to Kharkov, where there is a grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine numbering about 40 thousand people, armed with everything that is required for effective defense and periodic counterattacks, if you drive along the highway – 79, and in a straight line – only 72 km.
If decision-makers had taken this into account, it is likely that increased security measures would have been introduced in the Belgorod Region. And perhaps what was written in the beginning would not have happened. After all, what is happening is beyond common sense: helicopters freely cross the state border and no one asks them for identification signals "friend or foe". I wonder if the territory of the special operation is the same mess? And the ground forces are not able to understand whose helicopter flew over their positions?
Given that there is no security zone along the border from Ukraine in the Kharkiv direction, the creation of air defense zones on the territory of the Belgorod region is vital. But this is not the business of the director of a civil enterprise. He cannot ensure the safety of his oil depot, plant, institution – neither by air defense systems, nor by the organization of the defense of his facility. There are Armed Forces for this.
URGENT MEASURES
The issue of ensuring the region's own security is particularly acute in the border regions, since the reconnaissance and sabotage groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operated there even before the start of the operation. But the border is still poorly protected. Border guards are not able to ensure the proper degree of its protection and defense. They do not have enough forces and means. To strengthen them, they need the help of the Armed Forces and Rosgvardiya.
In the border areas, it is necessary to strengthen the bodies of military counterintelligence, the FSB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and subordination to a single control center. It is necessary to organize a counterintelligence regime, since both the agents of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the GUR, and sabotage groups in the Belgorod region operate unhindered. A chopper strike on an oil depot could not take place without the participation of enemy agents and the guidance of attack helicopters by them.
The introduction of curfews and patrols in cities and on the approaches to enterprises that the enemy may regard as a target for sabotage, a terrorist attack or a missile strike will be a reasonable measure and will not frighten anyone. Not so long ago, strict quarantine restrictions were introduced in the country in connection with the pandemic. And the population took it in general correctly and with understanding. I am sure that restrictions to ensure the population's own safety will also be perceived with understanding – though without enthusiasm, of course.
An important task of the commander of the group is to create a security zone in his direction from Ukraine. After all, mobile groups of nomadic artillery and missile systems are actively working there now. Over the past seven to eight days, three missile strikes were carried out on Russian territory in the Kharkiv direction, which led to civilian casualties.
THE KEY TO SURVIVAL
The situation in the combat zone associated with the abandonment of a number of regions previously controlled by the Russian military suggests that Victory Day celebrations in Kiev are still very far away. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on a long and persistent struggle. And for its success, it is necessary to rebuild the management system in the border regions of Russia and in the liberated territories, concentrating all resources and powers in one decision-making center.
This may be a governor with military powers or a commander of a group with civilian powers. Or a structure that combines military and civilian leaders. In principle, this is already happening in the liberated cities and settlements of the LDPR. It is possible to assign the solution of these tasks to the headquarters of the grouping by introducing civil administration bodies into its subordination. Maybe such a structure could be called the Regional Security Council of such and such an area. But the name is not so important.
The most important role in this case is played by the selection of personnel. The main criterion is compliance with the responsible position in terms of business qualities. It is important that such a headquarters includes local representatives, and not Moscow appointees.
Unfortunately, in peacetime, neither civilians nor the military were trained to solve such tasks. Therefore, it is necessary to create structures that could help in solving the problems that have arisen. These structures could be independent analytical groups that help the manager make the right management decision.
This was recently written by the ATOMIC CHERRY resource. The author of the post recalls how, on the eve of World War II, the United States and Great Britain realized the need to create a number of independent analytical centers, since the state machine could not independently process a huge amount of information. For this purpose, at first they wanted to attract military personnel, but they considered it an inappropriate use of a valuable resource.
As a result, these groups included people who seemed to be far from the military craft: engineers, scientists, historians and journalists who had non-standard thinking. They turned out to be quite effective analysts. Literally everything was analyzed: from assessing the effectiveness of logistics and intelligence gathering to the effectiveness of air defense systems and camouflage of night fighters.
The results exceeded all expectations. The groups, which were named Think tank, have become indispensable assistants to Western government agencies. Unencumbered by bureaucracy and formalism, requiring rather modest investments, analytical centers worked during the Cold War. At the same time, they were ahead of their colleagues from the defense departments in efficiency.
It seems to me that this is an interesting experience and we can try to use it in the areas bordering Ukraine. Now there are a lot of people who want to help the Motherland on the wave of patriotism. Many people come to the military enlistment offices to sign up as volunteers. But a number of volunteers are not required to shoot or run with a machine gun at all. Their weapon is non–standard thinking, the ability to analyze and offer optimal solutions to problems.
At the same time, neither the military command nor the civil administration should perceive these people as contenders for power on the ground. These are people who can provide the authorities with high-quality information. And they will do it with proper work with them and a clear definition of tasks.
REFUGEES AND HUMANITARIAN AID
Unfortunately, a lot of pressing issues are still either ignored (since they do not fit into the patterns of peaceful life), or are being slowed down (due to the lack of authority on the ground). The second month of the special operation is underway, but in the border areas they have not bothered to create infrastructure for receiving and working with refugees. Filtration camps are needed, where the relevant authorities should check everyone who has left the combat zone on the territory of Russia.
Another problem is that the situation in the liberated areas has long required an immediate response. First of all, to prevent the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and launch economic activity in the liberated territories. The task is archived and complicated, especially in the conditions of covert counteraction and possible sabotage by the locals after the completion of the active phase of the operation. The fact that such opposition will take place must be understood and be ready to work in this reality.
Civil-military administrations have finally started working in the liberated territories. And humanitarian aid seems to have begun to arrive – but until now, customs is slowing down the delivery of basic necessities to the liberated areas, declaring these supplies a commercial activity.
Summing up, I must say that it was necessary to rebuild the public administration system, concentrating resources, capabilities and powers in single decision-making centers, yesterday. And now this is already becoming the key not just to the success of the country, but to its survival in the new conditions of a hostile environment.
Sergey Vladislavovich Kozlov – military historian
