Ankara plays by its own rules in the North Atlantic Alliance
Since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine in February 2022, Turkey has been the only NATO member that has not imposed sanctions against Russia. Moreover, the country's leadership criticizes the North Atlantic Alliance for the current crisis in Eastern Europe, continuing to develop business relations with Moscow. Against the background of unprecedented actions of Western countries imposed against Russia, Ankara's position looks very unusual. What is the reason for such a special position of the country in NATO, why Turkey is still a member of this alliance and should we expect any changes in the near future?
From bulwark to rebel
Against the background of the post-war territorial claims of the USSR and demands to change the status of the Black Sea Straits, Turkey, together with Greece, joined NATO in 1952 during the so-called first expansion and became the 13th member of this military-political bloc. Throughout the Cold War, the country was the main stronghold of NATO's southeastern flank, directly bordering the Warsaw Pact countries and risking nuclear war on its territory during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. Since 1954, Turkey has hosted the Incirlik Air Base, an operational base of the US Air Force, which played an important role during the Cold War, as well as during the Gulf War in the early 1990s. The US, NATO and Turkey then managed to act collectively, solving important issues of the region together.
It is worth noting, however, that already at the initial stages, Turkey's peculiar disposition among its allies in the bloc was manifested. For example, Ankara was extremely unhappy with the US decision to withdraw medium-range missiles from Turkey as part of the deal that ended the Cuban crisis. The United States and Turkey have repeatedly clashed over Turkey's seizure and subsequent occupation of Northern Cyprus in 1974, as well as over direct American support for Greece.
However, real systemic changes began to occur with the coming to power of the Justice and Development Party (AKP, or AKP in Turkish) of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2002. The new foreign policy concept of Turkey is based on two main directions – "zero problems with neighbors" and "multi-vector foreign policy". Stating that the main task of the country is to achieve full membership in the EU, the new Turkish leadership used this election slogan mainly to reform the internal structure of Turkey, primarily to limit the role of the Turkish military in the implementation of domestic and foreign policy of the country. As the threat of interference from the military, which officially stood on the positions of orthodox Ataturk, was eliminated, the AKP began to distance itself more actively from the close alliance with the United States and claim the role of an independent leader.
After the US decision to invade Iraq in March 2003, the Turkish parliament, unlike in 1991, voted against allowing American troops to use the country's territory for this purpose. And this happened despite the fact that by the time the AKP came to power, Turkey was experiencing a deep financial and economic crisis, and the United States guaranteed that in case of a positive solution to the issue, Turkey would be allocated $ 6 billion in gratuitous aid and $ 24 billion in loans.
Until 2002, Turkey avoided involvement in external conflicts in every possible way, especially in the Middle East. However, after the AKP's arrival, its broad view of Turkey's foreign policy included Ankara's leading role in the Muslim world. The AKP leaders, who emerged as a result of a split within Turkey's Islamist movement, revered the Ottoman era and considered themselves the future of the region. They purposefully called themselves "Muslim Democrats" – an analogue of the Christian Democrats of Europe – and sought to open themselves up to the world and return Turkey to its rightful place as a leading country in the Middle East and beyond.
After the first presidential elections in 2014 and the referendum in 2017, when the transition to a presidential republic took place, Turkey increasingly began to turn into an authoritarian state, and sharp disagreements with the United States and European allies continued to deepen. After the failed coup in July 2016, which, according to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was backed by the Gulenist movement and part of the elite of the country's armed forces, at least 160 thousand people were arrested and 170 thousand civil servants were dismissed, including almost 9 thousand police officers and 6,152 military. It was then that the sharpest decline in NATO's influence on the Turkish armed forces occurred. The personality factor of Erdogan and his team, the big disagreements on the Kurdish issue, the further deepening of cooperation between Turkey and Russia, as well as internal conjunctural upheavals within the United States affected the general attitude of the United States and NATO towards Turkey.
Turkish-American relations have sunk to a historic low. In 2017, 72% of the Turkish population viewed the United States as a threat to their country, compared with 44% in 2013. Turkey considered the United States a more serious security threat than Russia (54%) or China (33%).
Another crisis and new opportunities
In connection with the events in Ukraine, unprecedented sanctions were imposed on Russia by NATO countries. Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, speaking at the opening of the diplomatic forum in Antalya on March 11, 2022, said that NATO will continue sanctions pressure on Russia until it stops fighting. Jens Stoltenberg also said that the alliance expects sanctions against Russia from all allies, hinting at Turkey. "Yes, we expect all our allies to impose sanctions. So we can make Russia pay the price. I also informed Mr. Cavusoglu about this. Turkey plays a key role here," CNN Turk quoted Jens Stoltenberg as saying. But Turkey was not in a hurry to join the sanctions against Russia, remaining the only NATO country in this position.
On March 4, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Turkey would not close its airspace to Russia, noting that it was important from a humanitarian and strategic point of view. Later, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pragmatically stated that the country's authorities would not join the anti-Russian sanctions because they could not allow their citizens to freeze without Russian gas. "We cannot put aside our relations with Russia. We get about half of the natural gas we consume from Russia. In addition, today Russia and I are building our Akkuyu nuclear power plant. We cannot leave all this aside," he added. Also, according to him, Ankara and Moscow are negotiating to increase settlements in national currencies in the tourism sector. Turkey continues to trade with Russia as it did before the war, benefiting from the withdrawal of Western companies. Russian shopping centers have already announced their readiness to replace Western clothing brands and other goods with Turkish ones. For example, the Turkish fast food chain Chitir Chicken has already announced its desire to open branches in Russia, occupying the market of the departed McDonald's.
Turkish Presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalyn, speaking at the Doha International Forum (DOHA 2022), said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has actualized the importance of forming a new global security architecture. The contours of this architecture will determine the events and processes of the coming years. For Turkey, now is an important and transitional moment, after which it will be able to take a more significant role in world and regional politics. And commitments to NATO allies will not serve as an obstacle for it.
In one of the conversations with journalists, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that there are no leaders in the United States and Europe who could solve the current crisis. Biden failed to demonstrate a positive approach. The West is not trying to solve the tension between Ukraine and Russia, it is practically inflaming it. Acting as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, as well as inviting delegations of the two countries to Istanbul for talks, Erdogan is trying to become the very leader who can help solve this crisis.
Turkey has always stressed that it does not make a choice between the West and Russia, it has its own path of development. All this creates an image of Turkey, which is guided by personal national interests and does not succumb to the influence and pressure of the United States and NATO.
To leave is not to leave
Next year, 2023, Turkey will celebrate the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the republic. And Erdogan's main goal is to be the president of a politically stable Turkey with growing international prestige and a developed economy. Something that could overshadow the epoch-making achievements of Ataturk himself. And this goal does not include Turkey's greater attachment to Western values, although Erdogan still seems to support at least a formal democratic procedure. Membership in NATO for Turkey at the moment is an additional plus to the prestige and influence of the country. Perhaps in the future, a more independent and strong Turkey will no longer need membership in NATO, but not at the moment. Now Turkey continues to benefit from its current position by participating in the ongoing exercises of the alliance, making a significant contribution to various NATO missions around the world, as well as continuing to actively cooperate in the military-technical sphere with its allies.
The United States is aware that Turkey's policy is increasingly beginning to take a form that does not meet the interests of the country and the NATO bloc and even sometimes discredits their influence in the Middle East region. However, due to the developed military-technical ties, alliance within NATO, as well as the use of the country's territory for basing the American contingent of troops, the United States cannot afford to finally lose a strong ally in the region. Therefore, despite the current disagreements, Ankara's independent policy, disagreement to accept anti-Russian sanctions because of Ukraine, the purchase of S-400 air defense systems, sanctions imposed against Turkey, etc., relations between the two countries will remain at the same level. Turkey has no alternatives for NATO, Turkish-Russian relations are also not stable, and both countries periodically have serious tensions, as it was after the downing of a Russian plane in 2015 and clashes in Syria and Libya. The level of relations that has developed between Turkey and NATO today is important for both sides.
The anti-Soviet glue that kept Turkey firmly in NATO during the Cold War has long disappeared. What we have at the moment is a "loveless marriage" in which both parties continue to live under the same roof, although there is no real relationship between them anymore, but only pure pragmatism and mutual benefit.
Egor Chobanyan
Egor Hrantovich Chobanyan is the coordinator of the Information Program of the PIR Center.
