The New York Times (USA): how America is tracking a nuclear strike
Russia's strategic deterrence forces have switched to a special combat duty mode, writes the NYT. The West has thrown all the satellites available to it to track the movement of Russian nuclear weapons in order to assess the level of possible danger.
William J. Broad
Hundreds of satellites are looking down on Russia's nuclear deterrent forces. And at the moment they don't see any reason to worry.
At the end of February, President Vladimir Putin ordered the transfer of the Russian strategic deterrence forces to a special combat duty regime. American surveillance equipment has also gone into high alert mode. Thousands of satellite images were taken in search of traces of the activity of Russian missiles, submarines, bombers and nuclear mines.
However, according to analysts, no cause for concern was found. They are echoed by representatives of the United States and NATO, who also confirm the absence of any "nuclear" activity of Russia. "We see no reason to change our approach to nuclear weapons," Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser to the US president, said on March 23.
But America's nuclear watchdogs should not be complacent, experts said. Moscow possesses tactical nuclear weapons that cause relatively small nuclear explosions, and can use them to conceal losses on the battlefield. Some military experts claim that such weapons can be used in Ukraine in the event of an unfortunate development for Putin.
"If Russia were really preparing for a nuclear war, then all its strategic bombers would be dispersed in case of an enemy attack," said Hans M. Kristensen, director of the nuclear information program at the Federation of American Scientists. "There are no signs of this at the moment."
The US surveillance system has come a long way since one of the first American spy satellites failed to detect the transfer of missiles and 158 Soviet nuclear warheads to Cuba in 1962. To date, hundreds of public and private reconnaissance satellites scan the planet daily. With their help, harvests are estimated, cities are mapped, forests are controlled and even secrets of nuclear powers are revealed. Planet Labs alone has a grouping of more than 200 satellites specializing in the surveillance of military facilities.
Russia's nuclear arsenal is the largest in the world, which creates significant difficulties for a thorough assessment of its condition. Private American companies such as Maxar, Capella Space and Planet Labs provide analysts with hundreds of satellite images of the Russian nuclear deterrent forces. Planet Labs alone has a constellation of more than 200 satellites and specializes in tracking military targets.
Private firms monitored the actions of Russia's strategic nuclear forces long before the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, observing how technical work, daily training and exercises were going on. According to experts, monitoring the progress of the standard daily routine of the Russian armed forces helps to determine exactly when preparations for combat operations begin. "By tracking such things, you can easily determine what is the norm," said Mark M. Lowenthal, former assistant Director of the CIA for Analysis. "And when any deviations occur, it becomes a cause for concern."
A false alarm sounded shortly after President Putin's announcement. The Lookout Twitter account reported that two Russian nuclear submarines had left their base, and the London tabloid Daily Express picked up the message. However, the news received only minor attention, as experienced experts immediately stated that the departure of the submarines was connected with planned exercises.
But Jeffrey Lewis and Michael Duitsman, experts from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, continue to monitor the Russian submarine fleet, as its movement can become a reliable sign of the growth of nuclear readiness.
Usually, about half of the Russian submarine fleet armed with intercontinental ballistic missiles goes on patrol, while the second remains in service. If the berths are completely empty, then this can be considered as a cause for concern.
To assess the current situation, Dr. Lewis enlarged the image of the base of the Russian Northern fleet Gadzhievo, located in the north of Russia. Google Earth images show a dozen massive piers jutting out of rocky fjords.
A team of experts from the Middlebury Institute studied the enlarged images taken on the seventh of March by the Planet Labs satellite. Four Russian submarines are clearly visible on them, moored to two piers of the Gadzhievo base. Duitsman said that various images of the base show that all the submarines are in port, which leads to the conclusion that they are not preparing for a nuclear attack. "Given the special regime of combat duty, I would assume that several submarines are currently at sea," he added.
Experts also studied satellite images of the Siberian military base, which show that mobile mobile complexes based on intercontinental ballistic missiles are moving along country roads, implementing defensive tactics. Duitsman said that the images taken by one of the Capella Space satellites on March 30 do not show signs of any unusual activity of the Russian armed forces.
Finally, near the southern shores of the Volga River, a team of experts from the Middlebury Institute inspected the military town of Saratov-63, which is a storage site for nuclear weapons for intercontinental ballistic missiles and the base of the Russian Aerospace Forces. There is also a base of strategic bombers not far from it. The images taken by Planet Labs on March 6 show a snow-covered landscape and, according to Duitsman, there are no signs of increased combat readiness.
In 1998, a high-ranking American military officer visited an underground bunker in Saratov-63 and reported that it contained not only extremely powerful nuclear weapons, but also tactical nuclear weapons. It is its use, apparently, that is the main Russian doctrine of nuclear war, since its destructive power is even less than that of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, which blurs the line between the use of nuclear weapons and conventional weapons.
Analysts and experts say that the transfer of nuclear deterrence forces to combat readiness was rather not an order to prepare weapons, but a signal that hostilities are possible.
Pavel Podvig, a long-time researcher of the armed forces from Russia, said that the increase in combat readiness is probably preparing the Russian army for the possible use of nuclear weapons. Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet diplomat who negotiated arms control treaties, agrees with him. "This is a signal for the military," he said. – It means: "Attention. Perhaps an order will be received.""
But Dr. Lewis said that the essence of Putin's order is to send additional military personnel to combat posts responsible for transmitting further orders and messages to the troops. "That's why we don't see anything," he said. "There are just more people in the bunkers." This is part of the usual plan to increase the combat readiness of Russia's nuclear deterrent forces. More people are needed to maintain the infrastructure in combat mode.
Dr. Lowenthal, a former assistant Director of the CIA who is now a senior lecturer at Johns Hopkins University, finds the personnel aspect of escalation the most disturbing.
"We can monitor external procedures and standard movements of the Russian nuclear deterrent forces," he said. "But internal processes are always disturbing." Satellite images still cannot show what people are doing inside buildings and bunkers.
He added that the main unknown remains the "level of automation" of the Russian war prevention system. The book "The Dead Hand" written on this topic. The Unknown History of the Cold War and its Dangerous Legacy", which won the Pulitzer Prize in 2009, tells about the presence of a semi-automatic system in Russia that works in the event of the death of Russian leaders. In such a scenario, the power over Russian nuclear weapons will be in the hands of several lower-ranking officers on duty in a special bunker. It is unknown whether Moscow relies on a similar system today.
"You can never be sure" exactly how the order to use nuclear weapons will be given in Russia, Loventhal said. "And it's unnerving."
