"This is a fundamental shift in regional international relations." With these words, the Australian press assesses the seemingly harmless agreement concluded between the PRC and the Solomon Islands. What exactly is contained in this document, why is the Australian leadership and society frightened by what is happening and what does all this have to do with the events in Ukraine?
In recent months, Australia has been one of the most vocal advocates of the Kiev regime and, accordingly, adopted sanctions against Russia in a frenzied printer mode. And not only because the Australian authorities are threatening the influential Ukrainian diaspora in their country – Canberra did not hide that by putting pressure on Russia, China is restraining.
Australian political analysts and officials said Moscow's success in Ukraine would set a precedent for Beijing. And thereby untie the hands of the Chinese for further expansion in the Pacific. But it is here that Australia, together with the United States and Britain, is trying to build a system of containment of the Celestial Empire.
Missed
However, while Australia was engaged in deterring Beijing at a distance of 15,000 kilometers (namely, this is the distance from Kiev to Canberra), China suddenly found itself only 1,700 kilometers from the Australian shores. In mid-March, Solomon Islands Police Chief Anthony Weke signed an agreement with the Deputy head of the Ministry of Public Security of the People's Republic of China.
The document deals with cooperation in maintaining public order, protecting the lives and property of citizens, as well as responding to natural disasters – that is, simply put, about the deployment of Chinese troops to the Solomon Islands if the local government asks for it. For example, if there are riots again related to the disassembly of local elites – especially if these riots (as in November 2021) threaten the lives and property of representatives of the local Chinese community. "The signing of this memorandum only demonstrates to the international community the fact that we are creating real cooperation here based on mutual work and interest in the development of the Solomon Islands," Mr. Weke said.
However, in addition to these points, the agreement contained another one. "China can, in accordance with its needs and with the consent of the Solomon Islands, make visits to ships, carry out logistical replenishment, as well as make stops and crossings in the Solomon Islands," the text of the document says. And in Australia, this was perceived as a prologue for the deployment of a Chinese base right near the Australian territory.
Moreover, some suggested solving the emerging problem by cardinal methods. "China has parked a huge stationary aircraft carrier within direct reach of every city in Eastern Australia," said Australian media mogul David Llewellyn-Smith. According to him, if the need arises, Australia should be ready to send troops to the Solomon Islands, because for the country this situation is analogous to the Caribbean crisis.
Friends to everyone, enemies to no one
Of course, neither in Beijing nor on the islands confirm the rumors about the base. "We are friends to everyone and enemies to no one," said Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare. "The government understands what security consequences the deployment of a military base will cause. And while it is in power, it will not allow this initiative to be carelessly implemented," the Solomon Islands Cabinet said.
"Attempts... Undermining China's friendly relations with island countries is not supported and will not succeed," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. "The cooperation between China and the Solomon Islands is not directed against any third party and does not contradict the cooperation of the Solomon Islands with other countries."
"To meet our security needs, we need to diversify the country's relations with other partners. What's wrong with that?" Sogavare said.
"The countries concerned should sincerely respect the sovereignty of the Solomon Islands and the independence of their decision–making process, and not decide from above what others should or should not do," Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Wang Wenbin is outraged. – Why is anyone worried about cooperation between China and the Solomon Islands, while the authorities and the population of the islands generally welcome this cooperation? Who sent military planes and ships to the borders of other states and flexed their muscles for years, threatening the security and sovereignty of these states ... and who deliberately escalated tensions and fueled a block confrontation that threatens regional peace and stability?".
And finally, they explain to Australia and other countries the possible consequences of radical forms of intervention. "We consider it extremely insulting ... when we are considered incapable of solving our sovereign affairs ourselves," Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare said. – Discussions in the Australian media about the invasion of the Solomon Islands in order to force regime change ... do not contribute to strengthening our bilateral relations. When a helpless mouse is cornered by vicious cats, it will do anything to survive."
Overreached
Experts agree – today there is really no question about the placement of the base. What is much more important is that the signing of the agreement between China and the Solomon Islands was not even the first step, but China's leap into the southern part of the Pacific region. "This is a fundamental shift in regional international relations. This devalues decades of Australian diplomacy and requires a complete reassessment of Australia's engagement with the Pacific region. The Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Cabinet of Ministers are seriously concerned about the precedent that is being created for countries such as Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu, which are also being courted by China," writes the Australian Brisbane Times.
The fact is that the Anglo-Saxon system of containment of China is based on the geopolitical concepts of "island lines". Simply put, the United States and its allies are trying to strengthen themselves on the island territories of the Pacific Ocean in order to deprive the Chinese fleet (both commercial and military) of freedom of maneuver, as well as, if possible, endanger the sea routes of communications. To do this, of course, it is necessary to maintain close and constructive relations with the island States themselves, their elites and governments. In the South Pacific, Australia (which traditionally controlled the region) was responsible for this policy.
However, in recent years, the Chinese have begun to interrupt this control. First of all, through the economy. From 2006 to 2020, China provided assistance to the countries of the Pacific region in the amount of about $ 3 billion, and is currently their largest export market. So, in 2019, more than half of the total tons of seafood, wood and minerals exported from the region went to China. Moreover, the forms of Chinese investments were, let's say, different – both direct investments in countries and banal pumping of resources for remuneration to local elites. For example, in Kiribati, 75% of the country's income is made up of fees for fishing. But the country itself exports very little. In 2019, only 1,000 tons of seafood were shipped to China, while foreign-flagged vessels (primarily Chinese) produce hundreds of times more in the water area.
The outcome of the Sino-Australian economic confrontation was predictable – both in the Pacific area in general and in the Solomon Islands in particular. "Australia simply does not have sufficient resources to fend off the suddenly increased Chinese interest in the Solomon Islands," Alexey Kupriyanov, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD. – The Chinese need to put their capital somewhere, and investments in the countries of the Southern Pacific are quite a promising direction. Secondly, expansion in the area of the Coral Triangle makes it possible to break through the first and second island lines."
Military-political dividends
Therefore, it is not surprising that after some time the economic presence of the PRC began to turn into a military-political one. "We know, for example, that they have increased the number of defense attaches in the Pacific region, we know that they have offered more assistance to the Pacific region through various ways and forms," New Zealand Defense Minister Pini Henare is outraged.
Of course, not all island states in the Pacific like the arrival of China. "I am afraid that we, the Pacific Islands, will find ourselves in the epicenter of a future confrontation between major powers," the President of Micronesia, David Panuelo, wrote in a letter to the leader of the Solomon Islands. – This is not some empty fear, because we have already been through this. Both the Federated States of Micronesia and the Solomon Islands were battlefields during World War II."
The only problem is that they are already at the epicenter. Chinese officials are right – it is not Beijing that has announced a policy of containment of Australia or New Zealand. It is not China that is creating regional blocs aimed at confrontation.
The question now is, what will these regional blocs do? Canberra has already stated that they are not going to tolerate the Chinese in the Solomon Islands. "We do not believe that countries outside the Pacific family need to play a role in ensuring the security of the region," says Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne. "As for China's presence in the Pacific region, this is our backyard, our neighborhood, and we are extremely concerned about any activity in the Pacific islands," Australian Interior Minister Karen Andrews said. "We want peace and stability in the region. We do not want a destabilizing influence, we do not want the pressure and coercion that we are seeing from China to continue to spread in the region," the country's Defense Minister Peter Dutton echoes them.
And it is not by chance that we are talking about the Pacific region as a whole – everyone understands that the Solomon Islands are just a breakdown of the Beijing pen. A springboard with which China, for example, can once again try to strengthen its military and political positions in the larger and more important neighbor of the Solomon Islands - Papua New Guinea. In 2018, Beijing offered the local government to reconstruct the naval base, but the island authorities made a choice in favor of Australia - and now the Chinese are coming back with various interesting proposals.
Some Australian experts are already calling for a bet on the change of local regimes. No, not through direct military intervention – why, if you can bet on regional elites? In particular, to stimulate already strong separatist movements in the same Solomon Islands, to disperse stories about the barbaric exploitation of local resources by the Chinese – and to arrange a small island maidan there. Well, what about it? In Ukraine, after all, it turned out. At least for a while.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
