Russia destroyed the fuel storage facilities of the Kremenchug oil refinery with high-precision weapons. This is the last of the large oil refineries operating on the territory of Ukraine. In addition, military airfields in Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk were destroyed. Even if there is a strategic fuel reserve, the Ukrainian army will soon not be able to properly operate heavy equipment, which will affect the ability of the military to fight.
On Saturday morning, the Russian army destroyed with high-precision long-range weapons the storage facilities with gasoline and diesel fuel of the country's largest Kremenchug Oil Refinery, from where the Ukrainian grouping of troops in the center and east of the country is supplied. This was stated at a briefing by the official representative of the Ministry of Defense, Major General Igor Konashenkov.
The Kremenchug refinery belongs to the Dnepropetrovsk oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, who together with other Ukrainian billionaires financed the creation of militant groups and the war in the Donbass. In the press they are called "Kolomoisky battalions". There were even comments in social networks that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are launching missile strikes at oil depots throughout Ukraine, but for some reason the Kremenchug refinery continues to work.
There are six oil refineries located on the territory of Ukraine. In addition to Kremenchug, these are Lisichansky, Kherson, Drohobych, Odessa and Nadvornyansky. Judging by information from open sources, all are inactive, except Kremenchugsky. The Lisichansk Oil Refinery, which was controlled by Rosneft, was the last to stop working in March 2012. It is unclear from the briefing of the Ministry of Defense whether the Kremenchug refinery will be able to continue functioning and, if so, in what volumes. In peacetime, the plant operated at about 16% of its design capacity, annually processing about 3 million tons of oil.
Political analyst Marat Bashirov is sure that the strike on the refinery was a "response" to the missile attack by Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters on Belgorod, which resulted in several oil tanks exploding. The fire area was 1.2 thousand square meters. meters. The Investigative Committee opened a criminal case on the terrorist attack.
"The Kremenchug oil refinery was bombed. There are no more refineries in Ukraine," Bashirov wrote in his Telegram channel.
Associate Professor of the Department of Political Science and Sociology of the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanova, a member of the expert council of "Officers of Russia" Alexander Perendzhiev agrees that the strike was a response for the raid on the oil depot in Belgorod. According to him, now the Ukrainian army will not be able to properly operate its equipment, including those supplied from Europe and the United States, due to a shortage of fuel and lubricants. "The weapons that will be supplied to Ukraine, in fact, will turn into scrap metal. But if it is captured by Russian servicemen, we can make this scrap metal a fully operational weapon," the expert suggested.
The interlocutor added that rocket launchers, tanks, artillery do not move manually and "if it all gets up, then it will be easier to destroy this equipment, which may be almost crucial in today's battle." "It would be good to deprive the APU of ammunition, cartridges. But so far it is not so simple, although we will also be able to come to this over time," Perendzhiev is sure.
The expert doubts that Ukraine will be able to compensate for the fuel shortage with supplies from the European Union. Firstly, it is necessary to take into account high oil prices, and secondly, the needs of the EU countries themselves. "Poland and Slovakia do not have too great opportunities, so Ukraine can hardly count on serious supplies from these and other states," Perendzhiev believes.
Alexey Leonkov, editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, is convinced that the APU has provided an inviolable reserve of fuel and lubricants in extreme cases and has some reserves, but a missile strike on the refinery "will make it easier for Russia to destroy the APU equipment." According to the expert, this strike is still not a response to the attack in Belgorod, it was inflicted after receiving intelligence data that fuel from this refinery is used for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and not only for civilian purposes, for example, refueling special equipment of emergency services.
According to him, the Donbass group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is still shelling residential areas in the Donetsk People's Republic, Donetsk, Gorlovka and Makeyevka suffer from this, but "it had to be finished", that's why the Kremenchug refinery was struck. "We understand that in Ukraine, in addition to military equipment, there is also civilian equipment, which should ensure normal life in cities and towns. Military equipment requires large reserves of fuel, so we are setting a difficult task for the Ukrainian authorities – to choose between the well-being of their citizens or the continuation of hostilities. The answer, I think, is obvious," Leonkov stressed.
Konstantin Sivkov, Vice-president of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, adds that a strike on the refinery will have an effect in the long term, "because fuel reserves are always being created," but "the time when the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to use their military equipment is not far off." The strikes on the Kremenchug refinery "threaten fuel starvation or, at least, problems with the supply of fuel to the Ukrainian army." "But we must keep in mind that
a huge number of warehouses have already been destroyed – that is, the AFU logistics support system has been destroyed. If the strike on the refinery destroys the possibility of creating fuel and lubricants, then in the future the Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose the opportunity to use their military equipment",
– predicts Sivkov.
During the briefing, Igor Konashenkov also said that the Russian Aerospace Forces aviation destroyed Ukrainian military airfields in Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk with high-precision missiles. In addition, "during the night, the operational and tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces and missile forces hit 67 military facilities of Ukraine." "Among them are two control points, two warehouses of rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition, nine field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 54 areas of concentration of military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Konashenkov said.
Perendzhiev does not exclude that it may be not only about the destruction of airfields, but also control points located there, warehouses with fuel and spare parts. All this reduces Ukraine's ability to conduct military operations. According to Leonkov, the AFU dispersed the remnants of its aviation to various alternate airfields, which have yet to be identified. He suggested that the military airfields in Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk could create infrastructure for servicing helicopters, which after the loss of aircraft and drones become the main force of Ukrainian aviation.
Sivkov agrees that helicopters could have been based at these two airfields. "The AFU has fewer and fewer helicopters, whose actions are quickly detected, after which they are destroyed with the help of our fighters and air defense means of the ground forces. Yes, the destruction of these airfields has a certain significance, but it will not have a significant impact on the course of hostilities – simply because there is nothing left to base on them," the expert explained.
Sivkov also explained why Russia is focusing efforts on striking the AFU grouping near Dnepropetrovsk. "At the first stage of the special operation, we defeated all those Ukrainian forces that could have tried to unblock the encircled troops near Donetsk and Kharkiv, in Mariupol. When the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the west and in the central parts of the country practically have no resources left, then we calmly proceed to the destruction of this group. That is, everything happens according to military classics, as the surrounded Stalingrad 6th army of Friedrich Paulus was liquidated during the Great Patriotic War," Sivkov summed up.
Andrey Rezchikov