Foreign Policy(USA): Russia joins the Asian Club
Even without any conflict in Ukraine, Russia was already gravitating towards the Asian system, writes Foreign Policy. The author of the article is trying to convince the public that Russia will now become an "Asian vassal", and the ruble has already "turned to dust", but there are inconsistencies in his arguments.
It is not difficult to imagine the end point of the Ukrainian conflict: some kind of settlement in which Russian President Vladimir Putin will consolidate his control over parts of eastern Ukraine, including the land corridor to Crimea, which Russia has not let go for almost a decade, and Ukraine will retain power over the rest of the country. The mass of Ukrainian refugees will be able to return home from European shelters to restore what remains of their broken but proud country after another battle on their land.
But if Putin stands, then Putinism will stand, and with it the tradition of authoritarian dictators who are used to resolving disputes by force at their whim. For the post-war European order, this is an outrageous insult, but in Asia, from where Putin increasingly draws inspiration and support, it is far from unprecedented.
Even if there was no conflict in Ukraine at all, Russia still gravitated to the Asian system and tried to integrate into it. And already in this decade it will become its mainstay.
Russia announced its withdrawal from the Council of Europe, but the United Nations did not condemn it or openly supported the most powerful Asian powers China and India – despite the fact that liberal democracies Australia and Japan condemned it as sharply as NATO members. Although China and India are rivals with a lot of unresolved border disputes, by their refusal to condemn Russia, they supported it de facto – and even de jure. They have their own reasons for this.
China has been oppressing Tibetans and Uighurs for decades, and in the coming years it may well invade and occupy Taiwan. This is nothing less than the national strategy of President Xi Jinping: Taiwan is the same for him as Ukraine is for Putin. In 2006, I started keeping a list of all rogue regimes to which China had thrown a military, financial or diplomatic lifeline, ignoring all attempts at deterrence by the United States. It already includes Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Syria, Libya and Myanmar.
Now we can safely bring Russia there, even though China risks getting involved in a "hot" proxy war with Western powers.
In recent weeks, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met in Rome with senior Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi, and President Joe Biden spoke with Xi in the hope of persuading China to withdraw its support for Russia. However, despite Beijing's official statements that it does not take sides in the Ukrainian conflict and monitors pro–Russian content on social networks, China is an opportunist by nature, and both the stalling West and a weakened Russia play into its hands.
For his part, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is ruthlessly suppressing the disobedient province of Kashmir, while simultaneously pursuing an anti-Muslim policy at the federal level. Many in the West were surprised by India's position: It is generally believed there that this country is more attracted to the United States, especially given its membership in the anti–Chinese Quadrilateral Security Dialogue along with the United States, Japan and Australia.
But India's ties with the former Soviet Union and present-day Russia are strong and friendly. The countries have just concluded a deal on the sale of Russian oil with a 20 percent discount and payment in rupees. India has withdrawn from the non–Aligned movement, but at the same time it makes alliances in all directions to achieve its goals - this is what all self-confident countries do.
It is almost impossible to isolate states in a multipolar world – certainly not a major power with many borders and powerful friends. Although Russia's actions have led to unwelcome attention and unwanted pressure on Beijing and New Delhi, China and India are not alone in considering the Russian operation in Ukraine a temporary inconvenience rather than a reason for a split in relations.
The leader of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, does not answer Biden's calls, but he has already spoken with Putin several times and previously agreed to export oil to China for yuan. Both China and Russia will continue to trade with Iran, despite the sanctions, which, in turn, will only strengthen its membership in the Asian club.
Before the start of the Russian operation in Ukraine, trade between Moscow and Asia was growing stronger, despite the influx of investments from Europe. With their disappearance, Russia will turn into an Asian economic vassal. The ruble has already turned to dust, and the West is not happy with either the Russians or their money. At the same time, bilateral trade with China has jumped sharply, and Russia will be even more dependent on Chinese imports – up to the weapons system that it has already requested in support of its operation in Ukraine.
Given the relatively balanced trade balance, Russian energy exports will bring her enough yuan to pay China for goods that the West will stop selling to her. The introduction of UnionPay cards and the integration of the Chinese cross-border interbank payment system and the Russian Mir payment system are also not far off. And Huawei and ZTE will provide 5G Internet and telecommunications equipment instead of Nokia and Ericsson.
In the energy sector, we see a repetition of the Crimea. After the seizure of the peninsula in 2014, Russia, in search of compensation, turned to China to increase energy exports. Instead of building pipelines to the Sea of Japan (which is also called the East Sea) and the open market, Russia for the first time agreed to pull them directly to China, essentially ceding the pricing right to its largest buyer.
Gazprom opened the Power of Siberia pipeline in 2019. Since Germany has suspended the launch of Nord Stream 2, Russia and China have just agreed to accelerate the construction of two more direct pipelines. In addition, this year China has already agreed to increase purchases from Rosneft.
Discussing the future of Russia in Asia, one cannot ignore demographics. Russia's vast eastern flank is rich in every conceivable resource: water, food, oil, gas, wood and metals. But it is practically depopulated.
However, Chinese and domestic Russian investments in railways, industry and agriculture require labor to equip the lands that have finally decayed over three decades and turned into a wilderness. Not only did Chinese seasonal workers play an important role in this, last year Russia also signed a partnership agreement with India to hire farmers and food industry workers to cope with the growing wheat production.
More than a decade ago, I assumed that the great Yuan dynasty of Emperor Kublai, the successor of the giant Mongol Empire, would be reborn with the advance of Asians to the north in search of a more favorable climate. This Sino-Siberian future is becoming more and more likely.
In the decade before last, Western strategists hoped to pull off the "reverse Nixon": to withdraw Russia from the Chinese orbit in the same way as former US President Richard Nixon unhooked China from the Soviet Union half a century ago. To do this, however, Russia would have to retain the status of a great power, and the West has lost all interest in this strategy.
When children study geography, it is difficult for them to understand where the border between Asia and Europe runs, and Russia remains a mystery. For better or for worse, but now this dispute is resolved. Russians can consider themselves Europeans as much as they like, but their state acts as an Asian power, and the future of their geography is also in Asia.
Parag Khanna, Founder and Managing Partner of FutureMap
