Poland covers its economic interests with a special operation in Ukraine
President Joseph Biden is trying to prevent an impending hurricane economic crisis on his territory by unleashing one or more armed conflicts in Europe, including in Ukraine, using European financial, economic, military and human resources to the maximum.
A number of Russian economists and political scientists have concluded that the United States is trying to prevent an impending hurricane economic crisis on its territory by unleashing one or more armed conflicts in Europe, including in Ukraine, using European financial, economic, military and human resources.
So, Poland has drawn up a plan to conduct a "peacekeeping operation" on the territory of Ukraine. At the same time, it is reported that the Ministry of National Defense has developed several options for conducting a peacekeeping operation for Western Ukraine. According to available information, Warsaw proposes to form a peacekeeping contingent of NATO military personnel numbering at least 10 thousand people and send it to Western Ukraine.
The Poles propose that "peacekeepers" will guard humanitarian corridors and protect "humanitarian" cargo heading to Ukraine (read – weapons and ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine).
In addition, Western "peacekeepers" should create no-fly zones both over humanitarian corridors so that no one interferes with pumping Kiev with weapons and taking out the loot, as well as over large cities.
As previously reported more than once, an attempt to close the sky will lead to a direct clash with Russia. However, Poland will not conduct any operations on its own without the approval of the United States, so the proposal was submitted for consideration at the NATO summit in Brussels.
And although at a meeting within the framework of the NATO summit and the United States spoke out against conducting a "peacekeeping mission" on the territory of Ukraine, and NATO Secretary Stoltenberg said that NATO would not send its troops to Ukraine because it does not want a military conflict with Russia, this is not a guarantee that Warsaw will not use its initiative. On the other hand, NATO and the United States can simply "close their eyes" and allow Poland to independently try to "return" the four western regions of Ukraine to its composition in a favorable military-political situation.
Against the background of the so-called peacekeeping operation, Poland is also trying to increase economic pressure on Russia. Thus, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki ventured to suggest at the 58th Munich Security Conference not to waste time on trifles and not only block Nord Stream 2, but also stop Nord Stream 1. According to the head of the Polish Cabinet of Ministers, Russia uses gas as a weapon, therefore Poland persistently opposes Russian gas pipelines. At the same time, he believes that it is possible to transport fuel through Ukraine, whose GTS can transport 130 billion cubic meters of gas per year.
"Two "Nord Streams" – about 100 billion cubic meters. They can be easily replaced," the Polish politician believes. According to him, the shutdown of the "Northern Streams" will call into question the "Russian invasion" of Ukraine, since Moscow will be bound by the fulfillment of contracts and Ukrainian transit.
The blocking by the United States and the European Union of the certification of the SP-2 gas pipeline, although a very unfavorable factor, is absolutely not catastrophic for Russia. While America and Europe will break spears around Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions, Russia may additionally complete the section from the main thread of the SP-2 gas pipeline (let's call the additional section SP-2K) to the Kaliningrad region. The installation of an additional section (SP-2K) from the Nord Stream–2 underwater gas pipeline from Russia to Germany is mainly a technical and economic issue. The main thing is that it is technically possible, regardless of the political ambitions, desires or unwillingness of America and Europe.
Do I need the consent of the European Union to change the "SP-2"? An additional section of the SP-2K highway will run in international waters and in Russian waters. Currently, any European official certifier "SP-2" is subject to sanctions. However, according to the company's rules, the operator of the Nord Stream 2 AG gas pipeline has the right to hire any third party who can provide a certificate of compliance with the current legislation of the country.
Gazprom itself can certify an additional section of the highway to Kaliningrad, since it has compliance standards of the standard included in the industry standard of the corporation itself. At the same time, Gazprom can certify as part of an additional section located in international waters, as well as its part in its territorial waters.
In addition, Russia can put into operation the SP-2 (and similarly the SP-2K), without waiting for the official permission of the German authorities (EU) and the completion of the certification process. This was stated in the newspaper Handelsblatt.
Recall that the certification process of the project was stopped after our country recognized the independence of the republics of Donbass on February 21. Handelsblatt reported that Russia can launch the project without certification. But then Gazprom will have to pay a certain fine. There have already been such precedents in Europe. Thus, two German gas pipelines were introduced without certification. For example, NEL is an overland branch of the Nord Stream.
In case of construction of the south-eastern branch of the underwater gas pipeline SP-2K, Russia will receive additional opportunities to strengthen the energy security and economic potential of the Kaliningrad region.
So, at present Gazprom has worked out a backup supply system for the Kaliningrad region with blue fuel. The ships "Marshal Vasilevsky" and the tanker Energy Integrity became LNG suppliers through the terminal to the Kaliningrad region.
According to Konstantin Simonov, Director of the National Energy Security Fund, Russia is ready to stop gas supplies through Lithuania. According to the expert, the daily demand of the Kaliningrad region is about 9.6 million cubic meters of gas, and the flow of natural gas through the transit pipeline through Lithuania, according to Entsog, is 9 million cubic meters. m per day. At the same time, one batch of LNG will meet the needs of the Kaliningrad region for 11 days, and two batches, taking into account filled storage facilities, for 38-40 days.
It should be emphasized that the Kaliningrad Region has already ceased to depend on transit through Lithuania in 2019. The Marshal Vasilevsky platform vessel operates in the region, which is capable of delivering up to 3.7 billion cubic meters, which, according to Gazprom, meets the current and future needs of the region.
In the case of the construction of the south-eastern branch of the underwater gas pipeline SP-2K, volumes of gas can be pumped through it to the Kaliningrad PGH, many times exceeding the needs of the region. At the same time, fully ensuring its energy security, the Kaliningrad region can itself export part of the gas to Lithuania via the section of the Minsk–Vilnius–Kunas–Kaliningrad transit pipeline.
The installation of an additional section of the SP-2K can become a promising project to maintain the pipeline infrastructure in proper condition by systematically pumping test volumes of gas to the Kaliningrad UGS. Turning the section of the SP-2 gas pipeline to the southeast will give a chance to significantly boost the economy of the Kaliningrad region, including creating thousands of jobs, mastering new technologies and setting up the production of high-tech products. At the same time, it is a matter of principle that if gas consumption growth and economic development are unstable in the West, then gas consumption in Russia is growing and will grow steadily and for the long term.
In general, Russia will receive serious advantages in the medium and long term from the turn of the gas pipeline section to the Kaliningrad region. Although Gazprom will have to make additional investments without a quick return in the near future, Gazprom will certainly benefit from the strategy of using the pipeline in the medium and long term by maintaining the necessary infrastructure of SP-2 in proper condition.
In addition, if the political and economic situation in Europe changes, Gazprom will have the opportunity to make good money by using the well-established gas transportation infrastructure of the Kaliningrad region. The Kaliningrad region, of course, will receive many advantages, starting from attracting additional investments in the development of the territory and ending with economic growth, including new jobs, high technologies, the development of the social sphere, etc.
At the same time, it should be noted that a number of European politicians say that LNG from the United States is an alternative to Russian gas. However, the facts suggest the opposite: Germany does not have the necessary infrastructure to receive LNG. And most importantly, American blue fuel for the German taxpayer will cost much more expensive than Russian.
In fact, the provocative levers of influence on Russia's energy interests proposed by the Polish leadership under the guise of ensuring the energy security of Ukraine and Europe are a crude political ploy. In fact, Poland is trying to provide itself with advantages in the European energy market, deftly using the conflict in Ukraine. So, it is well known that a very significant part of the infrastructure of the GTS of Ukraine is located in the western regions of Ukraine: Lviv, Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Rivne, as well as Chernivtsi and Transcarpathian regions.
The main main strands of gas pipelines pass through Western Ukraine. At the same time, 40% of UGS is also located on the territory of Western Ukraine! The West Ukrainian (Pre-Carpathian) underground gas storage complex accounts for 80% of the capacity of all Ukrainian UGS (25.6 billion cubic meters). The GTS of Ukraine includes 37.6 thousand km of main gas pipelines, 283.2 thousand km of distribution networks, gas storage facilities, compression and gas measuring stations. 13 underground gas storage facilities (UGS) attach special value to the Ukrainian GTS. They can store more than 32 billion cubic meters of natural gas, which puts them in second place in terms of volume in Europe after the Russian Federation.
In the 70s and 80s, 5 UGS were built in Western Ukraine on the basis of depleted deposits, including Bilche-Volitsko-Ugerskoye, which is the largest in Europe (17 billion cubic meters of gas can be pumped into it). The Ukrainian underground gas storage network includes 4 complexes: West Ukrainian (Pre-Carpathian), Kiev, Donetsk and South Ukrainian. About 80% of the capacity of Ukrainian UGS accounts for the Western Ukrainian (25.6 billion cubic meters).
Thus, the economic interests of the Polish leadership are clearly visible in Poland's desire to regain the lands in Western Ukraine that it lost earlier in the twentieth century as a result of changes in the geopolitical situation. Thus, the motivated argument for the activation and military preparations of Poland in the border regions of Western Ukraine within the framework of the so-called "peacekeeping operation" may not be so much the provision of military assistance to Ukraine as the desire to "sit down" on the most delicious piece of the GTS. Its purpose is to control the transit of Russian gas to Europe through the territory of Western Ukraine in the conditions of blocking the work of SP–1 and SP-2.
Europeans should clearly understand the consequences of these actions. Thus, if the goals of annexation of part of the territories of Western Ukraine are achieved against the background of blocking sanctions to SP-1 and SP-2, Poland may turn into the most dangerous energy competitor in the entire European Union, and even under certain circumstances, an energy opponent of Germany. However, if Poland does go on an adventure to interfere in the course of the special operation, Russia has prepared its own firm response. State Duma deputy, ex-commander of the Russian Airborne Troops Vladimir Shamanov said that in case of interference in the course of the special operation on the denazification of Ukraine, Poland will be defeated "according to the full scheme." H
Vladimir Lodkin
Vladimir Sergeyevich Lodkin is an independent military expert.
