Electric cars in Russia and lithium fever in the world
Against the background of the special military operation of the Russian army in Ukraine, Russia came under numerous sanctions mainly from Western countries, which exposed the country's significant dependence on imports in the field of high technologies of a number of industries.
Among them are bans on the supply of new technologies, components and components to Russia, which requires import substitution, including in the production cycle of electric vehicles. After all, electric vehicles are becoming more and more in demand and will not only determine the progress of mobile transport, but also be important for the defense industry. The world is working on the creation of new models of promising technology, and are developing hydrogen fuel cells. At the same time, electrification concerns not only passenger transport, but also buses, trucks and defense special equipment. Already today, public electric transport is operating in large cities.
However, not everything is so simple, unconventional energy requires large storage capacities, wind generators, solar panels. And today lithium as an element for batteries is an indispensable raw material resource for electric vehicles and energy storage systems. As the chief geologist of the Krasnoyarsk Chemical and Metallurgical Plant Nikolay Vorogushin noted, "lithium batteries are a promising product: these are not only electric buses, but also all wind, solar, wave energy. Any unconventional energy requires large battery capacities." How are these problems of electric vehicle transport solved in Russia?
The lightest metal on the planet
Lithium is silvery–white, plastic, softer than lead, the lightest metal on the planet, which also increases its importance for mechanical engineering. It does not occur in its pure form, but is the main component of granite, found in seawater, salt deposits, clays. It ranks 27th in terms of the mass of elements in the earth's crust - 0.0032 percent. Lithium batteries were already firmly established in watches, calculators, PC motherboards, remote controls at the end of the XX century. The replacement of zinc with lithium led to the fact that the voltage increased from one and a half to three volts, and the energy intensity increased several times. At the beginning of the XXI century, the demand for metal has grown dramatically – primarily for batteries due to the development of gadgets and electric vehicles. According to Bloomberg forecasts, the demand for lithium batteries will increase nine times by 2030. Today, several types of lithium batteries are used in technology:
Lithium-cobalt (NCR), the operating voltage range is 3-4.2 V. The highest specific energy consumption is up to 250 Wh / kg, they age quickly (the average life span is three to five years, in charge–discharge cycles – no more than 500). Charging with a large current is undesirable. Extremely toxic when ignited.
“Today, the Russian Federation depends on foreign lithium suppliers and price spikes in the market so much that it requires the creation of its own full-cycle production”
Lithium-manganese (IMR or INR), the operating voltage range is from 2.5 to 4.2 V. The specific energy consumption is 140-150 Wh/ kg. The resource is about five to six years, withstands up to 1000 charge-discharge cycles.
Iron phosphate batteries (LiFePO4, LiFe, LFP, IFR), operating voltage range – from 2 to 3.65 V, rated voltage – 3.2 V. Specific energy consumption – about 150 Wh / kg. The resource is 10-20 years, approximately 1500-3000 charge–discharge cycles, used for electric vehicles, rovers, bicycles and similar devices.
Lithium-titanium batteries, the highest durability and a wide temperature range of operation. The voltage range is from 1.6 to 2.7 V, the rated voltage is 2.3 V. The specific energy consumption is approximately 100 Wh / kg. The resource is more than 15,000 charge-discharge cycles. The temperature range is from minus 30 to plus 60 degrees. It has a very low resistance, allowing the use of ultrafast charge, and low self–discharge - about 0.02 percent per day. It is used on electric vehicles.
Lithium-ion battery (Li-ion) is a type of battery widely used in gadgets, household electronics, laptops, as an energy source in electric vehicles and energy storage devices in energy systems. The operating voltage range of a single element is 2.5 – 4.2 V, the specific energy consumption is 110-270 Wh/kg. The resource is 600 charge-discharge cycles. The fast charge time is one hour, self–discharge is about 1.6 percent per month.
In general, the effective capacity of lithium-ion batteries is two to three times higher than that of lead-acid batteries, and the value of the specific stored energy is two to five times greater. They are available in capacities from 90 to 6000 mAh.
A modern version of such a battery with a graphite anode and a lithium cobalt cathode was invented in 1991 by Akira Yoshino. The design of lithium-ion batteries: electrode – cathode, anode and electrolyte. The cathode is mainly made of nickel (73%), cobalt (14%), lithium (11%) and aluminum (2%). The anode is usually completely graphite. The electrolyte is lithium salts (the most common is lithium hexafluorophosphate, LiPF6) in an organic solvent. The charge carrier in the battery is a positively charged lithium ion.
Global lithium production
The rapid development of electric vehicles in the world in 2020 alone required the consumption of 85 thousand tons of lithium. Deposits are known in Chile, Bolivia, USA, Argentina, Congo, China, Brazil, Serbia, Australia, Afghanistan. Bolivia has the richest reserves of precious metal. Among the production leaders are Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and China.
In addition, China is the leader in lithium production - about 51 percent, the share of the United States is only two percent.
According to the data of the United States Geological Survey in 2019, the confirmed world reserves of lithium amounted to 17 million tons. But most of the known deposits of lithium-rich brine are located in the arid highlands on the border of Bolivia, Chile and Argentina, where the driest place on the planet is located – the Atacama Desert.
High purity lithium is required to produce batteries. To get a ton of metal, you need to spend about two million liters of water.
The growing market excites and calls
In 2019, the global lithium consumption of 57,700 tons is 18 percent more than a year earlier. Global Data analysts predict that by 2024 the demand for rare metal will increase by two and a half times – up to 117 thousand tons.
Among the producers of rare metal, Talison Lithium Ltd (Australia), SQM (Chile), Jiangxi Ganfeng Tianqi (China), FMC (Argentina) dominate on the world stage.
Against the background of the boom in electric transport, there were many giant concerns planning to find their place in the new glade of business. Australian European Metals Holdings, together with Czech partner CEZ, decided to develop Europe's largest lithium deposit Cinovec in the northwestern part of the Czech Republic. The bet is more than justified: according to the forecast of the IEA, by 2040 the demand for lithium in the market will grow 40 times. The urgent need for the development of the lithium industry resulted in the so-called high-speed production. The largest mining companies have launched a large-scale search for new deposits, as well as the development of metal extraction technologies. Today, lithium producers cover mining sites with pools and rigs pumping billions of liters of water a year from the Earth's crust. When in 2015 the Chinese government made a bet on electric cars in a five-year plan, and soon Elon Musk announced that he expected to sell up to half a million Tesla cars a year, lithium fever began in the world. Over the next three years, metal prices increased fivefold. According to forecasts, by 2027, production volumes will increase by eight times.
Is there any chance for Russia to break into the unexplored lithium market?
The stock pocket does not rub, but also does not warm
As Nikolai Vorogushin recalls, "almost all Russian lithium reserves were calculated and put on balance at the end of the 50s of the XX century. Until recently, they were of no interest to anyone, because the need for lithium was small. One mine covered all the needs." He further noted that there are lithium reserves in Russia, but no one extracts it. More than 50 percent of lithium reserves are concentrated in rare metal ore deposits on the Kola Peninsula, in the Republic of Tyva and the Irkutsk region. The first and only lithium mine, where mining was carried out, is located in Transbaikalia. In the Soviet years, about 40 percent of the reserves were worked out there, and in 1997 the field was mothballed due to the unfavorable economic situation. In October 2020, the government raised the tax on mining twice, which greatly complicated the development of new deposits. The initial auction payment for the deposits of the Kola Peninsula reaches 1 billion 100 million, and the exploration costs, according to geologists, may amount to another 500-600 million rubles.
The signed agreement between Gazprom and the Ministry of Industry and Development of the Russian Federation on lithium production at the Kovyktinskoye field in the Irkutsk region gives Russia a pass to new technologies. Now the main thing is not to become a raw material appendage, like Chile, but to organize your full cycle of battery production.
According to the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA), about 900 thousand tons of lithium are deposited in the Russian Federation, in terms of reserves - this is the third place in the world. But today, not a single field is being developed, only two regions are considered promising – in the Irkutsk and Murmansk regions. The development is also hindered in many ways by the fact that in our country lithium is mainly contained in ore deposits, which require much higher costs in comparison with the hydromineral method of extraction.
However, several ambitious projects have appeared in the Russian Federation, which are still in the plans. Thus, Uranium One, an international group of companies that are part of the TENEX group management circuit of the Rosatom State Corporation, is engaged in promising projects for the extraction of non–ferrous and rare earth metals, by 2030 it plans to occupy up to 10 percent of the global lithium market. According to the project, the company intends to develop deposits in a hydromineral way at licensed sites in Latin America and Africa, and to localize the production of final products on the territory of Russia.
The mining division of Rosatom State Corporation – JSC Atomredmetzoloto (ARMZ) may begin the development of lithium deposits in the Murmansk and Irkutsk regions. According to preliminary estimates, up to 50 thousand tons of lithium compounds can be extracted annually at promising sites.
In addition to Rosatom's projects, there were plans from representatives of the oil and gas sector. In Russia, it has recently been officially allowed to extract associated minerals from groundwater that are not related to hydrocarbon raw materials: amendments to the law "On Subsoil" were adopted in the summer of 2020. The development strategy of the rare and rare earth metals industry of the Russian Federation includes two projects for the associated extraction of lithium from reservoir waters of oil and gas condensate sites. According to the document, by 2025 Gazprom and EAST Exploration should develop and test a technology for extracting lithium from hydromineral brines of the Kovykta deposit.
Another participant of the program, Irkutsk Oil Company, plans to start producing lithium salts (a by-product of gas production) at the Yaraktinskoye field of about 1,000 tons per year by 2024-2025. According to preliminary estimates, in the future this will largely cover the domestic demand for lithium salts, which the Russian Federation annually imports from South Korea.
Here, the establishment of maximum deadlines for the receipt of the first commodity batches can be considered a reference to the strategy of fully providing the Russian industry with domestic rare and rare earth metals by 2030.
Battery made in Russia?
For the needs of industry, we still import lithium-containing concentrates or ready-made metal compounds. It should be noted that it is not in high demand in the domestic market, since it is consumed in small quantities. All Russian factories producing lithium batteries purchase foreign raw materials. For example, in the summer of 2019, Rosatom and the Ministry of Energy of Bolivia agreed to jointly develop Bolivian deposits.
Only high–purity lithium is used for batteries - this is produced at three factories in Russia. One of the manufacturers of batteries and systems is the Liotech plant near Novosibirsk, a portfolio project of RUSNANO. But the raw materials for the batteries come there from abroad: the company uses Chinese cathode powders. The purchase of foreign components under sanctions is associated with the difficulties of acquiring foreign goods: finding a reliable supplier, high-quality raw materials, setting delivery dates and costs, solving logistical problems.
The company controlled by Rosatom, Renera, announced plans to build lithium-ion cells and full-fledged batteries for Avtotor electric cars in the Kaliningrad region.
Today, the Russian Federation depends on foreign lithium suppliers and price spikes in the market so much that it requires the creation of its own full-cycle production. We immediately note that the domestic lithium industry is in its infancy.
One magnet, two magnet
In addition to lithium, the batteries of electric vehicles contain cobalt, nickel and graphite. Also, electric car engines include a number of rare earths and a group of 17 chemical elements that are available only in small quantities and are also dispersed throughout the earth's crust. The world reserves of rare earth are estimated at 100 million tons in terms of REM oxides. The most widely used REM are used in the production of powerful permanent magnets. Most electric vehicles use neodymium permanent magnets, consisting of an alloy of neodymium, boron and iron (Nd2Fe14B), necessary for the production of high-performance electric motors. Such magnets contain neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr) and dysprosium (Dy).
According to experts, the world's lithium resources are estimated at 40 million tons. These reserves may last for about 185 years, even if the market triples. Estimated reserves of cobalt (the most expensive metal in batteries) in the three leading countries (DRC, Australia and Cuba) amount to about five million tons, while today about 45 thousand tons of cobalt worldwide is used for the production of electric vehicles. By 2030, this figure will exceed 90 thousand tons.
Graphite reserves are estimated at about 250 million tons, while demand for graphite due to the production of anodes reached 250 thousand tons in 2020. Nickel reserves (78 million tons) with an increase in consumption of more than 2.5 million tons are sufficient and there will be no disruption of the transition to electric vehicles. The European Commission estimates the global reserves of rare earth element oxides at more than 80 million tons, while their average annual production may be about 140 thousand tons. The most difficult-to-reach REE are neodymium and dysprosium.
Note that the reserves of lithium, cobalt, graphite and REE are unlikely to limit the growth of production of electric vehicles. In the 80s, the USSR ranked third in the world in the production of high-purity rare-earth products necessary for modern models of military equipment and the nuclear industry.
Today, the Russian Federation has the world's largest raw material base of rare earth metals (REM) in the amount of 26.9 million tons, ranking second in the world after China. However, REE in Russia are mined in insignificant quantities – at the level of 90 thousand tons. There are rich deposits in Yakutia, which are estimated at 154 million tons of ore. Tugan deposit in the Tomsk region with a large industrial content of minerals, titanium and zirconium. It is necessary to extract everything. Today, China dominates the market of rare earth magnets. In second place is Japan, which does not have its own raw materials. The global production of rare earth magnets is currently estimated at 50-60 thousand tons per year. Russia is making a very modest contribution to this volume so far – about one percent. The Russian industry meets most of the needs for magnets due to imports from China.
The upcoming electric car
According to experts, over the past 15 years, the fleet of electric vehicles in the world has grown seven thousand times, in 10 years electric vehicles will make up 30 percent of all vehicles.
Among manufacturers of electric vehicles, Tesla (USA) continues to be the leader – in 2020, the company's sales amounted to about half a million cars, which is an absolute record, sales have also happened in Russia. More than 90 percent of all electric vehicles in the world are concentrated in China, the EU and the USA. The Chinese market today is the largest and fastest growing – more than half of all cars are sold there. The absolute leader here was the same Tesla, which completed the construction of a new factory in Shanghai at the end of 2019. More than 400 companies producing electric vehicles are registered in China.
Blue Moscow electric bus
In Russia, according to the Concept of Electric Transport Development approved in 2021, by 2030 at least 10 percent of the cars produced will be electric. A comprehensive program for the development of electric transport is currently being developed, and in its latest version, the amount of state financing until 2030 will amount to 804 billion rubles: the money will be directed not only to the development of equipment, but also to subsidize purchases and the development of infrastructure for electric vehicles. Serial production of passenger electric cars in Russia has not yet begun, but in three years the production of such cars is planned to exceed 25 thousand units per year.
The fleet of electric vehicles is growing, but slowly, in 2020, according to the analytical agency "Autostat", 687 new cars were sold (in 2019 - only 353 units).
In the Russian Federation, as of mid-2021, 12,290 electric vehicles were registered, which is less than 0.03 percent of the total fleet, mainly foreign cars.
In Moscow, modern electric transport is gradually replacing conventional buses and trolleybuses: on August 25, 2020, the last of more than 1,600 metropolitan trolleybuses left the park forever.
Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Transport and Development of Road transport Infrastructure Maxim Liksutov said: "The Moscow electric bus is one of the best in the world market. All electric bus assembly operations at the plant are completely eco-friendly, with zero emissions."
"In 2022, the first electric accordion buses (KamAZ-6292) will enter the routes, which can accommodate up to 135 passengers. And we will increase the number of charging stations to 383, which will expand the network to new areas."
At the beginning of 2021, more than 600 LIAZ-6274 and KamAZ-6282 electric buses were operating in Moscow alone.
According to the manufacturers, full charging of electric bus batteries takes from 6 to 20 minutes. Electric buses are equipped with lithium-titanium imported batteries and electric bridges. The design features of the machines are that the engines are hidden in electroportal bridges with recovery – part of the braking energy is returned. Four flat panels of batteries weighing about a ton are installed on the roof, the design of the electric bus is designed for this weight. Most of the batteries and traction equipment for passenger electric transport in the capital is produced by a resident of the SEZ "Technopolis Moscow".
The third generation of electric buses of the GAZ group also uses lithium-titanium batteries of the Chinese company Microwast, designed for 15 thousand charge-discharge cycles, which in theory should provide a ten-year battery life.
Nikolai Domnitsky
The newspaper "Military-Industrial Courier", published in issue No. 11 (924) for March 29, 2022