Military expert Andrey Frolov - on the likelihood of Turkey transferring Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems to Kiev
In recent days, the American media have been actively promoting the idea that Turkey's transfer of the S-400 air defense system to Ukraine could solve several issues for Ankara at once: strengthen positions in NATO and relations with the United States, remove the irritant in relations with Washington and again gain access to Lockheed Martin F-35A fighters. How possible is this scenario?
As you know, a framework contract worth about $2.5 billion for the supply of two regimental sets to Turkey (a total of four divisions) The S-400 air defense system was signed by Rosoboronexport JSC in July 2017. Deliveries were made at a rapid pace in the period from July to October 2019. The purchase was carried out partly at the expense of Russian credit funds, which were fully paid by the end of 2020. An important point is that Turkey has become the first foreign recipient of the new 9M96 anti-aircraft guided missiles as part of the S-400.
Negotiations on the purchase of new batches of S-400 were very active. But last year, according to media reports, they stalled, as the parties could not find an acceptable solution to the issue of technology transfer, which was discussed during the first delivery. At the same time, it is impossible to completely exclude the finalisation of this option.
Thus, this contract turned out to be important for Ankara and Moscow: Turkey received the most powerful long-range anti-aircraft missile system in its air defense, certain access to Russian technologies, and for quite moderate money. Russia has strengthened its position as a leading manufacturer of air defense systems, deepened relations with Turkey and received $2.5 billion.
The question seems logical: how possible is the transfer of the S-400 to Ukraine? This seems unlikely — for the following reasons.
The first of them is financial. Turkey has paid $2.5 billion for the complexes already delivered, and unlike the Slovak and Bulgarian S-300 air defense systems, this is a modern system that is only in the initial stage of its life cycle. It is not very clear how Turkey will be compensated for the funds spent on the S-400.
Another important factor is legal. When purchasing weapons systems, an end-user certificate is valid worldwide, which is issued by the manufacturer, and which does not allow re-export without its permission. There is no need to go far for examples of such practice: during the same Ukrainian crisis, Germany first banned, but then allowed the re-export of its weapons from allied countries (the United States did a similar approval), not so long ago Russia gave Jordan permission to sell two Il-76MF military transport aircraft to Egypt. Obviously, the Russian Federation will not give such permission in the case of the Turkish S-400.
The technical aspect is no less significant. The S-400 system appeared after the collapse of the USSR, and so far only Russia, China and Turkey are in service. Accordingly, the possibilities for learning calculations are limited. How and where potential Ukrainian S-400 operators will be trained remains in question, not to mention that training itself is a rather expensive event that requires considerable time and a special training base.
And finally, it seems to be the most essential element. He is in the field of the reasons why Turkey, in principle, purchased the S-400, having gone to significant costs in US relations and, in fact, having lost the F-35A fighters already paid and produced. Of course, we do not know about the true reasons, there are clearly several of them, but during the signing of this contract in 2017, rumors persistently circulated that Erdogan was buying the S-400 in order to have an air defense element independent of NATO. This fear was caused by the failed military coup of 2015, in which the country's Air Force played an active role. The hypothesis looks realistic, which has not lost its relevance to this day.
Thus, it can be stated that these stuffing have little to do with the real state of things, and the probability of the appearance of Turkish S-400 in Ukraine tends to zero. The true reason for such publications probably lies in the field of psychological struggle and is designed to sow distrust and tension in Russian-Turkish relations, as well as to give another hope to the Ukrainian side.
The delivery to Ukraine of the Turkish-made HISAR+ medium-range air defense systems, recently put into service, looks much more realistic. But again, it is unclear who will pay for this transaction. In addition, in this case, it will also take a lot of time to train for this complex of Ukrainian calculations.
Andrey Frolov - military expert
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion
