Raseef22 (Lebanon): Assad's visit highlighted differences with Washington. Has the UAE decided to turn to the East?
Last Saturday, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad paid a visit to the UAE, writes Raseef22. This event can be interpreted from two points of view. On the one hand, because of anti-Russian sanctions, Damascus is looking for an alternative to Moscow. On the other hand, the UAE is making efforts to become a regional leader. The author of the article foresees changes in the relations of Arab countries with Damascus.
Last Saturday, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad arrived on an unexpected visit to the UAE. At noon, he landed at Dubai International Airport, and at night he took off from the Al-Batin military airfield in Abu Dhabi. In its atmosphere, the visit is fundamentally different from the usual reception of leaders by the UAE authorities, who are accustomed to giving heads of state a warm welcome according to diplomatic protocol, as was the case with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last month.
The Syrian-Emirati relations were not as tense as the relations between Abu Dhabi and Ankara. Despite this, the meeting with Assad took place in a cold atmosphere, although this was his first visit to an Arab country after the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011. Perhaps this is a coincidence, but the visit came at the time of the beginning of the revolution, which turned into a civil war.
It was preceded by the visit of UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan to Damascus on November 8, 2021, 11 years after the Arab world boycotted Syria. Today, the country has still not regained membership in the Arab League.
Washington's Messages for Abu Dhabi
Initially, the United States did not welcome this visit. According to a statement from the State Department, they are extremely disappointed and concerned about the apparent attempt to legitimize the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
In a press statement, State Department spokesman Ned Price called on countries considering engaging with the Assad regime to carefully study the horrific crimes it has committed against Syrians over the past decade, as well as its ongoing attempts to deprive most of the country of access to humanitarian aid and security.
Noteworthy was the response of Anwar Gargash, adviser on diplomatic issues to the President of the UAE Khalifa bin Zayed, on his official Twitter account. He texted: "The visit of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad correlates with the UAE's desire to note the role of Arabs in the Syrian dossier and the country's conviction of the need for bilateral cooperation, political openness and dialogue at the regional level. We need bold steps to ensure stability, prosperity, concern for the future of the region and the well-being of its residents."
In another comment, he noted: "The UAE's steps are not unilateral – this is a collective initiative and its details may not be disclosed. As for the outrages coming from everywhere, they come from those who supported Jabhat al-Nusra and terrorism in Syria. Did they give the terrorists flowers or weapons and money?"
Emirati political scientist and researcher Majid al-Raisi posted the following tweet: "We know what the interests of our region are. This is a slogan that has become a reality thanks to the UAE. Western control over regional events and processes, its security, will soon be a thing of the past."
Not so long ago, the UAE secured its role as a sponsor of the reconciliation process in the region. First, they normalized relations with Israel by signing the "Abraham Agreement" in September 2020, then normalized relations with Turkey after a long feud, and finally opened up for dialogue with Syria and even Iran.
What role do the Emiratis need?
What role does the UAE need, in addition to participating in the normalization of relations? Political analyst Muhammad Sukkar said in an interview with Raseef22: "In fact, the UAE is striving to become a regional leader by leading diplomatic efforts at the political level, including the Syrian direction. Despite this, the recent reception of Assad in the country did not comply with diplomatic protocol, and the authorities accepted the Syrian president as a representative of one of the parties to the conflict."
The expert added: "It seems that the UAE is acting in stages, as Geir Pedersen, the United Nations Special envoy to Syria, has always said. A convincing proof of this is that Abu Dhabi still has a lot of influence in traditional opposition institutions."
According to Sukkar, Salem al-Maslat is one of Abu Dhabi's allies in the National Coalition of Opposition and Revolutionary Forces, and this indicates the connection of the Syrian file with the Turkish-Emirati agreements. Moreover, apparently, the UAE has become more supportive of the idea of Syria's return to Arab institutions, of course, without the participation of the head of the Syrian regime.
The Syrian oppositionists do not believe that Abu Dhabi cooperates with al-Maslat in this matter and the latter has great influence, allowing him to be a link between the parties, even though he belongs to a well-known clan.
Damascus does not need the Arab League
After a brief visit to the Emir of Dubai, Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the Syrian president went to Abu Dhabi, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the de facto ruler of the Emirates. According to the official statement of the local authorities, both sides stressed the need to preserve the territorial integrity of Syria and the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country. As you know, the armed forces of such powers as Russia, Iran, Turkey and the United States are present on its territory.
As Emirati political analysts told us earlier in connection with Abdullah Al Nahyan's visit to Damascus, the UAE is serious about returning Syria to the Arab community. Although according to their estimates, this should have happened this month, there are no signs of rapprochement yet.
In this context, Hasan Yousef, a Syrian analyst from Damascus, told Raseef22: "This visit will pave the way for other meetings at the Arab level. Syria is interested in its return to the Arab League, but will not demand it publicly, realizing that most Arab countries will already agree and will welcome such a step."
According to the opinion of the Syrian opposition and neutral experts on the Syrian file, Damascus is currently looking for an alternative to Russia. Thus, the Assad regime needs the UAE's help in all areas of the economy, including food, medicines and financial transactions through Emirati banks after the introduction of tough sanctions against Moscow.
Who will win?
From the point of view of international relations specialist Ali Yahya, American repositioning in Western Asia after the failures in Afghanistan and Iraq is aimed at countering China as a central economic threat. This threat means accelerating the shift of the global balance of power in favor of Asia. As for Russia and its Eurasian project, it equally encourages the American administration to restrain Iran in order to prevent the expansion of the Eurasian space, as well as to abandon the protection of its allies in the Middle East.
He added in an interview with Raseef22: "This is what prompted the countries of the region to adjust their position taking into account national interests along two parallel lines. The first involves the return of a policy of positive interaction with its geopolitical environment and soft diplomacy, as well as the launch of the process of Egyptian-Qatari, Turkish-Emirati, Iranian-Saudi normalization. The second line is responsible for increasing the level of interaction with Russia and China, and in different areas. And since Syria is a space for such cooperation, we are seeing an influx of political, economic and military delegations."
The UAE is one of the few countries that have maintained contacts with the regime in Damascus, albeit timidly or in the form of communication under the table. In 2018, they reopened their embassy in the Syrian capital.
Yahya is convinced: "The UAE's position on the Syrian crisis differed from the views of Saudi Arabia and Qatar for reasons related to their long-standing hostility to Turkey and movements of political Islam. The Emirates restored political relations with Damascus and security channels many years ago and opened the doors to people close to the ruling regime in Syria. Moreover, the country is open to investment, wants to participate in the post-war reconstruction and reduce the intensity of criticism of the UAE in the Syrian media, especially with regard to the Yemeni war, as it needs a hard currency and the loyalty of thousands of Syrians who have moved to the Emirates.
From Yahya's point of view, common interests are above the influence of each side on the foreign policy of the other, whether it is the UAE's relations with Israel or Syria's alliance with Iran. In addition, Assad's first visit to an Arab country since the beginning of the war in Syria fell on a rather shaky period for the international system in connection with Ukraine. In addition, the visit was preceded by the refusal of the UAE (and Saudi Arabia) to condemn Russia and the efforts of the President of Algeria and his Foreign Minister aimed at returning Syria to the Arab community. All this means the rapid normalization of relations between the Arab states and Damascus.
Movement to the East
The reaction of the United States, rushing to normalize relations with Iran by reviving the nuclear agreement, does not go beyond how the Ukrainian crisis has affected relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, on the one hand, and Washington, on the other. A few days ago, President Joe Biden announced his intention to declare Qatar the main non-NATO ally of the United States.
Yahya notes: "Washington is angry, as evidenced by the statement of the State Department, indicating an increase in the distance between it, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Although he quickly managed to close a Chinese facility under construction in the UAE, he could not prevent Saudi-Chinese military cooperation in the ballistic sphere. The Americans also failed to change the position of the two Gulf states that refused to contribute to the reduction of world oil prices."
In recent years, the GCC countries have become the center of attraction for Chinese economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa and are determined to further strengthen these economic ties through large-scale investments in energy, industry, finance, transport and communications.
In addition, in 2018, almost 30% of Chinese oil imports — or 2.9 million barrels per day - were accounted for by the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Persian Gulf.
At the beginning of the year, Iran took steps demonstrating its intentions to move eastward and thereby find another way to resist the pressure and threats of the West. In January, Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahiyan visited Beijing to announce the start of the implementation of the Strategic Partnership Agreement signed by the two countries in March 2021. According to it, China will provide Iran with investments, other economic support, as well as security assistance worth $400 billion over 25 years.
In the same month, Moscow received Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi. During the visit, the leaders discussed various aspects of bilateral cooperation. According to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Said Khatibzadeh immediately before the visit, the talks are designed to develop Russian-Iranian cooperation on trade and economic issues, as well as the regional and global agenda.
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