American drones registered at the borders of Russia and China
The American Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBO, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Washington), one of the leading national research organizations, consistently works to improve the effectiveness of the use of robotic complexes (RTK) in modern conditions. The interim results of the research on the use of RTK in the course of competition with Russia and China are published in two publications on the official Internet portal of the CSBO.
"DETERRENCE BY DETECTION"
The document "Deterrence by detection: the key role of unmanned aerial vehicles in the era of great Power rivalry" (Deterrence by detection: a key role for unmanned aircraft systems in great power competition, 2020) presents proposals for the use of UAVs to create zones of permanent and demonstrative reconnaissance surveillance in order to deter the most likely opponents – the Russian Federation and China.
The authors believe that Russia and China are purposefully and systematically preparing for aggression against US allies located in Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, the rapid growth of the political influence of the Russian Federation and the PRC in the international arena, the high pace of their economic development and the remoteness of the United States from the likely theaters of military operations give the leadership of the Russian and Chinese armed forces an advantage, including in time, over the US Armed Forces, which "pushes" Moscow and Beijing to seize adjacent territories. The possibility of an armed conflict has a permanent character. At the same time, the members of the research group emphasize that the existing methods of using the American armed Forces do not meet such challenges. Threats of this order are of a long-term nature, and the defense department is able to carry out detailed monitoring of the situation in "hot spots" only periodically.
In order to reduce the negative effect of these shortcomings, it is proposed to provide constant "situational awareness" to the US leadership and make it difficult for opponents to make a decision on the start of hostilities by organizing demonstrative high-intensity intelligence activities in these regions. At the same time, the use of multi-purpose (reconnaissance and strike) UAVs will ensure that the advanced forces of the United States and their allies are highly combat ready to participate in a military conflict.
This approach is called "deterrence by detection". In a broad sense, this concept covers the use of unmanned and unmanned robotic systems operating in all spheres (land, sea, air, space and cyberspace). At the same time, the authors of the project believe that in the present conditions it is advisable to focus on aircraft that have a long service life in the US Armed Forces.
The developers of the concept expect that the practical implementation of its provisions will lead to the emergence of a number of desirable trends for the United States:
- the growth of psychological pressure on the leadership of the Russian Federation or China;
- increasing the level of awareness of the leadership of the United States and its allies about the situation on the territory of the Russian Federation and China;
- increasing the readiness of American allies for active retaliatory military actions together with the United States (when using multi-purpose UAVs, it becomes possible to provide direct fire support to the allied side already at the initial stage of the military conflict);
- reducing the cost of intelligence activities (UAV operation is cheaper than using manned reconnaissance aircraft);
- reducing the risk to the life of US Armed Forces personnel.
The disadvantages of the new conceptual approach include:
- a relatively low operational response rate (the speed of arrival of a manned aircraft to the area designated for reconnaissance is significantly higher than that of a UAV);
- insufficient flexibility of the UAV in autonomous mode (without operator participation) in a difficult situation;
- low survivability of the UAV (during combat operations).
AREAS AND OBJECTS OF OBSERVATION
In this context, it is proposed to organize continuous surveillance using UAVs for the actions of a likely enemy in priority areas. In particular, in Eastern and Southern Europe, according to the authors of the concept, it is advisable to patrol in the following areas:
- over the waters of the Baltic Sea and in the regions bordering Russia of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, as well as near the Kaliningrad region;
- over the Black Sea and Ukraine;
- in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea and over the territory of Syria.
In the Asia-Pacific region, it is proposed to carry out round-the-clock patrols in the Taiwan Strait, the South China and East China Seas.
Depending on the country of the intelligence activity, the main tasks of the UAV groups are determined. So, in Eastern Europe, it is planned to monitor the following activities:
- preparation for large-scale exercises near the western borders of Russia;
- transfer to the highest degrees of combat readiness of units and formations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation stationed in the Kaliningrad region;
- basing (accumulation) of units and formations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation at the sites of the exercises after their completion;
- deployment of units and formations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Belarus;
- activation of the activities of special operations forces units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation;
- increase in the number of submarines on combat duty.
In the Asia - Pacific region, it is proposed to monitor the following signs:
- relocation of the Dongfeng-21 and Dongfeng-26 mobile ground complexes (withdrawal from permanent locations);
- preparation for large-scale exercises;
- accumulation of personnel and amphibious forces in the Navy and PB located close to Taiwan;
- movement of surface ships of the PRC Navy of the main classes in the areas of the Senkaku and Spratly Islands;
- Deployment of the Air Force, units and formations of the special operations forces of the People's Liberation Army of China;
- increasing the degrees of combat readiness of units and formations of the Armed Forces of the People's Republic of China.
An additional goal in this case will be to monitor the activity of units of the Armed Forces of Russia and the DPRK in the region.
PROSPECTS AND THE PRICE OF THE ISSUE
At the stage of determining the types and required number of UAVs, the authors studied the capabilities of the samples. RTCs were analyzed according to the following criteria: flight range, duration of autonomous flight mode, support for data exchange in the Satcom satellite communication system, payload mass, the possibility of replacing some functional payload blocks with others in a short time.
According to the results of a comprehensive assessment, American experts came to the conclusion that the MQ-1C "Gray Eagle", RQ-4 "Global Hawk" meet the requirements,
MQ-4C "Triton", MQ-5 "Hunter", MQ-8 "Fire Scout" and MQ-9 "Reaper".
It is important that UAVs that are already part of the US and Allied Armed Forces will be involved in solving tasks within the framework of the concept of "deterrence by detection". According to preliminary estimates, a total of 92 UAVs will be required (46 in the Asia-Pacific region and another 46 in Eastern Europe).
Separately, American experts stressed the need to use not only UAVs, but also infrastructure facilities of the Republic of Korea, Japan and Australia, and in Europe – NATO allies (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom).
At the same time, for the full use of American UAVs in the airspace of other countries, it will be necessary to change the regulatory framework of the countries involved. In this context, it becomes necessary to sign relevant multilateral agreements. This, in turn, will increase the level of awareness and trust among partners, which will also have a positive impact on readiness for joint combat operations.
At the same time, an assessment of the financial component of the concept was carried out on the basis of data from the Control and Financial Department of the US Congress. The total annual operating costs within the framework of the implementation of the concept will approximately reach $1.4 billion. At the same time, the expenses have already been largely funded (scheduled flights, maintenance of technical equipment, payment for personnel activities is annually included in the state budget).
In addition, the use of UAVs from other countries will significantly reduce the projected costs for the United States. Along with this, it is noted that the implementation of this plan will release the total resource of the space reconnaissance spacecraft orbital grouping and re-target it to the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation or the People's Republic of China in the depths of the territory of Russia and China. This will ensure the separation of intelligence assets throughout the territory of both countries.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONCEPT
The idea of joint use of UAVs operating in all spheres was developed in 2021 in the report "Implementation of the concept of "deterrence by detection": innovative capabilities, order and organization of situational awareness in the Indo-Pacific zone" (Implementing deterrence by detection innovative capabilities, processes, and organizations for situational awareness in the Indo-Pacific region).
In the context of the priority of the confrontation with the PRC in this region, as the main directions for expanding the intelligence potential of the US Armed Forces, it is proposed, in addition to new types of UAVs, to include surveillance means at sea and in outer space in the composition of reconnaissance groups.
The reality of the last point is confirmed by the example of successful monitoring of the crisis situation by private American companies. Thus, the American companies Planetlabs (Planet Labs) and HawkEye 360 (HawkEye 360), which have Earth surface monitoring satellites in operation, in 2020, in a short time presented to the media photographic materials on the situation in the zone of aggravation on the Sino-Indian border (Ladakh region).
Reliable information about the presence of Chinese military equipment, contrary to the agreements reached with India, according to the authors, forced China to actually fulfill its promises to withdraw forces from the disputed territory.
At the same time, it is proposed to use the capabilities of already existing ship traffic control centers (CSDs are formed in accordance with the decisions of the International Maritime Organization, a specialized agency of the United Nations).
At the first stage, it is planned to organize a multilateral interdepartmental working group of the Indian-Pacific zone to develop an appropriate regulatory framework. After receiving official access to the data circulating on the data centers of the Asia-Pacific countries, begin preparations for the creation of regional multi-sphere information processing centers (RMTSOI, RMFC) with the leading role of the United States. The latter will later become a source of information for coordinating the activities of united multinational formations and units.
In addition, American experts believe that the projected increase in the load on the computing systems and communication complexes of the US Armed Forces can be compensated by the use of artificial intelligence elements on board unmanned vehicles.
conclusions
Thus, the specialists of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments believe that in conditions of a shortage of the US own resources to implement the policy of containment of Russia and China, it is necessary to redistribute the available technical means (UAVs, space exploration, etc.) to priority areas. And also to expand cooperation with partners.
It is possible that in the case of the practical implementation of the concept of "deterrence by detection", the US Armed Forces by 2025 will have the opportunity to create zones of permanent and demonstrative reconnaissance surveillance of a regional scale, including on the western and eastern borders of the Russian Federation.
In this case, the complexity of ensuring the secrecy of combat training units of the Russian Armed Forces, as well as keeping secret information about the organization of radio communications and other types of support in a real combat situation, will increase.
Thus, factors are being formed that force the Russian leadership to intensify the development of new models of military hardware, as well as forms and methods of countering US intelligence activities.
Sergey Trofimov
Sergey Sergeevich Trofimov is an independent military expert, Candidate of Military Sciences.
