The official Tokyo appealed to the International Court of Justice in The Hague in connection with the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine. Earlier, Japan has already allowed itself several unprecedented steps that bring down its relations with Russia into the abyss. Why do the Japanese need a conflict that they risk greatly regret later? After all, until quite recently, the relations between the leaders of the two countries were almost friendly.
To call a spade a spade, Japan has written a statement against Russia - in much the same way as ordinary mortals write statements against their hated neighbors. The reason is a special operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine. The instance is the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, which is often confused with the so-called Hague Tribunal (ICTY; it dealt only with the cases of the former Yugoslavia).
"Russia's actions are an attempt to change the status quo in the region by force, they undermine the foundations of the world order. Such actions are an absolutely unacceptable violation of international law," the Japanese Foreign Ministry said, welcoming the launch of the ICC investigation.
In itself, this investigation is not a reason to talk at all for the simple reason that Japan is a member of the ICC, while Russia and Ukraine are not. The first signed the Rome Statute, but then withdrew the signature (by the way, the United States did the same), and Ukraine, although it signed, did not ratify – this issue has been actively discussed in Kiev since 2014, but left as it is, fearing that it could "fly" for the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass.
At the same time, Tokyo's appeal to The Hague is an important sign. A sign that Japan is ready for a radical quarrel with Russia – and is now trying to run ahead of the Western locomotive of sanctions. There are many such signs – and all are noticeable.
For example, for the first time in its history, Japan will help the Ukrainian army - it will give it, if not weapons, but protective equipment and ammunition.
At the same time, Tokyo stressed that they want to withdraw from all oil and gas projects on Sakhalin and called the Kuril Islands "ancestral territory" (which contradicts historical facts), to which "Japanese sovereignty extends." Despite the complexity of the Kuril issue, the Japanese tried to avoid such brazen formulations under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Examples can be given for a long time - up to the scandal around the Uniqlo brand, which produces fashionable casual clothes at low prices. The head of the company Tadasi Yanai first announced his refusal to leave the Russian market, arguing that clothing is a basic necessity that cannot be denied to anyone, including Russians, but a few days later he suddenly changed his mind. It is doubtful that Uniqlo would be pressured from the US State Department, where there are not enough hands, but from Tokyo - why not. It seems that they are now ready to beat all the pots with Moscow in general.
Meanwhile, until recently, under the Abe mentioned above, relations between Russia and Japan were consistently good and even warm, if compared with relations along the Russia–West line. For example, in 2014 Tokyo imposed an extremely minimalistic package of sanctions against Russia – they were often called "polite" in the press. Why such aggressive persistence now?
When a country suddenly breaks down on Russia like a dog off a chain, Americans are traditionally blamed for this. Even now, it is impossible to deny that Japan critically depends on the United States as its main ally. Hand on heart, it cannot even be called a fully independent state.
However, for some reason, her dependence did not interfere much with Prime Minister Abe, an outstanding and now almost officially legendary politician, although he resigned only a year and a half ago. And this is despite the fact that Abe carried out a colossal project to modernize the Japanese army (in fact, thanks to him, Japan had an army at all, before Abe it was called "self-defense forces"), which would have been impossible without the active participation of the United States in this process. For some reason, Americans angry at us forgave Abe for "special relations" with Russia.
The second popular explanation is that the elections, they say, "hawks" work for the public. But the elections in Japan have already passed, and Abe's party with a new leader - the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida - has completely defeated all competitors. Now it makes no sense for Kishida to "work for the public," but he is still going to aggravate, promising Japan and the world "the biggest crisis since World War II" because of the confrontation with Russia.
But we are talking about the very Kishida who, under Abe, headed the Japanese Foreign Ministry for almost five years and was in fact a co-author of the moderately friendly policy pursued by the ex-prime minister in relations with Russia.
To understand what is happening, you need to know about two circumstances. The first is that regular working and personal contacts between Abe and Vladimir Putin worked as a safeguard against Japan slipping into Russophobia under pressure from Washington and its own right-wing radicals who are ready to fight for the Kuril Islands even tomorrow.
Over the years of working together, the two leaders have established a mutually respectful and trusting relationship, they even called each other friends. In the case of Kishida, there is no "personal chemistry" in sight – there is nowhere for her to come from. By declaring a crusade against Russia, he does not lose anything that he could cherish.
The second circumstance is even more important: Abe valued mutual understanding with Putin, because he believed that it could ensure a balance of power in the South China Sea region, where the creeping expansion of the main enemy and potentially deadly enemy of the Japanese, that is, the PRC, has been going on for many years.
Kishida looks at these problems differently, according to the opinion of Japanese political commentators. At the current level of the war of sanctions, comparable only to the times when the Bolsheviks came to power and the Civil War in Russia, Beijing's support is critically important for Moscow. But in fact, Russia made its choice even earlier – by October 2021, when the Russian Navy and the Chinese Navy conducted joint exercises and a common squadron passed through the Tsugaru Strait between the Japanese islands of Hokkaido and Honshu. Japan's political class was seething with indignation after that.
Thus, from Tokyo's point of view, the time of complex multi-vector policy has passed. The world is divided, Russia and China are clearly on one side, and Japan and the United States are on the other.
Being on its side, Japan sees Russia and its special operations in Ukraine as China with its threats of further expansion.
There are many disputed islands scattered across the South China Sea, which are claimed by the PRC, disputing their affiliation with Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia and other neighbors. The most important of them for Beijing is, of course, Taiwan, but even control over deserted rocks allows you to expand your exclusive economic zone and dictate conditions for fishing, trade routes and navy locations to your neighbors.
China's undivided control over the South China Sea is Tokyo's nightmare. And they hope that the current "demonstrative flogging" of Russia will make Beijing think twice and abandon plans to resolve all territorial disputes by force, if there are such plans.
Apparently, it is precisely this geopolitical consideration that caused Tokyo to take such an active part in the economic and information war with Russia. The greater our costs, the more China will be afraid, which, in turn, will strengthen Japan's security.
The problem with this logic is that it only works if Russia is defeated – militarily or geopolitically, when it will be forced to retreat without achieving its goals. But Russia is not going to give such pleasure to anyone, especially to the Japanese, whose role in the current crisis will be taken into account by Moscow for the future. Including in the context of relations with China.
Instead of the "fright" of one formidable neighbor, Tokyo risks getting a mortal insult from the second – Moscow, while Beijing will only strengthen its ambitions for hegemony in the South China Sea.
Dmitry Bavyrin
