The "Olympic" development of the Celestial Empire will reshape the market of non-nuclear ships
A short video clip lasting only a few seconds caused a stir in circles associated with underwater shipbuilding. The footage of the video captures a certain Chinese non-nuclear submarine (NAPL) of a new project. The shooting quality is very low. The object of observation is out of focus. Most likely, the "operator", who was filming on a smartphone and hiding either behind bushes or behind overgrown grass hummocks, was simply afraid that the competent Chinese authorities would grab him in one place and charge him with espionage.
Small - remote
What do we see in the video? A small submarine that is slowly moving down the Yangtze River towards the sea. Obviously, it started from the new Wuchang Shipyard complex near Wuhan– the world's largest shipyard for the construction of non-nuclear submarines. In contrast to the type 039A/B/C Yuan NPLs being built there serially and the export modifications of this project for the Pakistan and Thai Navies, the new boat is noticeably smaller in size, and therefore in displacement. The national flag of the People's Republic of China is being developed in the bow on the flagpole, where it is supposed to raise the huys during parking. On the deck of the submarine, some units packed in bags of blue polyethylene are placed in the bow and stern. Obviously, this equipment will be placed in the belly of the boat at the place of its completion in Shanghai.
The new NAPL was unofficially named "Olympic" because a video with its image appeared online during the Winter Olympic Games in Beijing. According to experts, the length of the boat is about 50 m, and the displacement is about 600 tons. Its design resembles a single-hull submarine of the S600 project, whose model, presented by the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC), was demonstrated at the international Defense & Security Exhibition in Bangkok in 2017. The displacement of the S600 is just 600 tons, and the length is about 50 m, the width is 4.6 m. The maximum speed of the submarine should reach 15 knots, and the range of continuous underwater travel is 400 miles when sailing using an auxiliary air-independent power plant (VNEU) based on a Stirling engine with external heat supply. The diving depth is 200 m, and the autonomy is 20 days. The stern plumage is cruciform. The armament includes four 533-mm devices for firing torpedoes, anti-ship missiles and laying mines. Thanks to the widespread introduction of automation tools, the crew is small. It consists of 15 people.
However, the "Olympic" NAPL is somewhat different from the S600. It is difficult to guess what changes have occurred in the internal layout, but the boat, whose length is slightly less than the prototype, apparently, is also single-hulled, although double-hulled submarines have been built in the PRC before and continue to be built. It is not difficult to notice the external differences from the S600. The horizontal handlebars were moved from the fence of the extendable devices to the front of the case. The shape of the fence of extendable devices has also changed. If on the S600 it is a classic streamlined architecture, then on the "Olympic" fence looks more like a truncated cone.
Small and ultra-small
Such a fence was provided on the Chinese submarine type MS200, whose model was also demonstrated at the Defense & Security 2017 exhibition. It is referred to as midget, that is, to mini-submarines. It has a displacement of 200 tons, a length of about 30 m, a diving depth of 200 m, a maximum underwater speed of 8 knots, an underwater navigation range of 120 miles, a mixed navigation range of 1,500 miles, autonomy of 15 days, the crew consists of six sailors plus eight special forces soldiers. Armament – two torpedo tubes.
It follows from the above data that MS200-type boats are more likely to belong to small submarines, and not to midgets. It is enough to compare them with the M-type submarines built in our country before the war, during it and after the end of the Great Patriotic War in several series totaling 153 units to make sure of this. By the way, the "babies" were the first submarines to join the Navy of the People's Liberation Army of China. In terms of tactical and technical characteristics, they are inferior to the MS200. Their displacement, depending on the modification, is 157-208 tons, the maximum diving depth is 60 m, the maximum speed of the underwater course is 7-7.8 knots, autonomy is 7-8 days. Armament – the same two torpedo tubes without the possibility of recharging during the campaign. But the crew is six times more numerous.
The "Olympic" submarine, along with the S600, should probably also be attributed to small submarines, although their capabilities significantly exceed the potential of medium submarines of the Second World War era.
Not out of need
Foreign commentators write that the "Olympic" boats are export-oriented. Recently, the Bangladesh and Myanmar Navies have acquired small submarine fleets. China participated in their creation by transferring to them the type 035 submarines, which are a deep modernization of the Soviet submarines of project 633.
The boats supplied to Bangladesh and Myanmar are second–hand, they have been in operation for a long time. Their acquisition is a temporary measure aimed at practicing scuba diving skills by the sailors of these countries. And in the near future they will need a replacement. Both South Asian countries are not among the rich states. The acquisition of new NAPS can become an unbearable burden for them. And just then a relatively cheap "Olympic" submarine arrived.
The potential market is not limited to Bangladesh and Myanmar. Sri Lanka and Nigeria are showing interest in acquiring submarines. The Olympic Games may attract the attention of Pakistan and Algeria. Although now in Wuhan, eight type S20 submarines are being built for the Pakistani Navy – an export version of the type 039A Yuan submarines. If Beijing offers cheaper submarines that can be built in mass series not only in China, but also in the shipyards of Pakistan and at the same time will achieve quantitative superiority over the submarines of the Indian Navy, then Islamabad will undoubtedly be interested in the "Olympic" type.
Thailand also ordered three S26T type submarines from China based on Project 039A boats, the first of which was laid on September 5, 2019. The cost of the contract for its assembly is $ 383 million. But the construction is delayed due to delays in financing. The Thai opposition sharply criticizes the plan to acquire submarines because of the "critical situation in the country's economy amid a pandemic." In fact, anti-Chinese sentiments are deliberately exaggerated by the United States, which does not want Bangkok to fall into military-technical dependence on Beijing.
The Algerian Navy, which in the near future will have to replace two submarines of the 877EKM project, built in the USSR in the mid-80s of the last century. Algeria has long-standing ties with China in the military-technical sphere, including along the naval line. But submarines have never been ordered in China. However, the new "Olympic" is suitable for operation in the Mediterranean Sea. We can name a couple more countries interested in new Chinese boats. For example, Iran, where such submarines can be operated in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Or Indonesia for the deployment of "Olympic" boats in the strait zones.
Here we pay attention to the moment when a video with a mysterious submarine appeared on the Network. It coincided, as we have already noted, with the XXIV Winter Olympic Games in Beijing, when interest in China was heightened. Therefore, the "spy movie", which most likely was not an accident, but a well-thought-out marketing move in order to warm up interest in a new product of the Chinese defense industry. And although it was soon removed from social networks, which further fueled interest in the "Olympic", it managed to spread all over the world.
The breath of a nuclear-powered vessel
As the well-known American expert on submarines H.I. Sutton notes, in the presence of a VNEU or LIA or both, the "Olympic" boats acquire a completely new quality and can be used by the PLA Navy near artificial islands created by China in the South China Sea. Their deployment there will create a lot of problems for the US Navy.
Indeed, although artificial islands have berths, but they can receive and serve only small surface warships: type 056A corvettes, type 022 missile boats and minesweepers. In the future, "Olympic" submarines may be added to them. And if now the ships of the American Fleet, following the South China Sea, are experiencing enormous pressure from the PLA Navy, then with the advent of well-armed and virtually silent small submarines, this pressure will increase even more.
China is separated from the Pacific Ocean by the so-called first chain of islands - from Japan to the Philippine Islands. These islands, on the one hand, protect the PRC from invasion from the east, on the other – make it difficult for the PLA Navy to enter the ocean. With the help of "Olympic" submarines, not only in the waters of the South China, but also the East China and Yellow Seas, China can take full control of the waters inside the "first chain", including the depths of the adjacent seas. This is fundamentally important, because American experts believe that in a crisis situation, surface ships of the US Navy will not be able to approach the Chinese shores closer than 1,500 miles now. Only American submarines are capable of operating inside the "first chain". Due to its low noise, small "Olympians" will "block oxygen" to nuclear-powered ships during mass deployment.
Where are our "Piranhas" and "Servals"
In the post-Soviet period, a whole family of projects of ultra-small and small submarines was created in Russia. These are the 370-ton Piranha-T, the 750-ton P-550, the 800-ton P-650E with auxiliary VNEU with electrochemical generators, the 960-ton P-750 armed not only with torpedoes and mines, but also with Club-S/Kalibr-PL cruise missiles and its 1060-ton version P-750E with VNEU. Finally, recently appeared the project of a multi-purpose NAPL P-750B "Serval" of modular construction made of steel and composite materials with a closed-cycle gas turbine engine (for more information about this NAPL, see "HBO" from 30.07.21). All these projects arouse genuine interest among potential customers. But they all want not only to look at a picture or a model of their future acquisition, but also, as they say, to feel it. And with this, the situation is bad. Not a single such submarine has been built in 30 years (for reference: the USSR Navy from 1923 to the beginning of the Great Patriotic War, that is, in 18 years, received from the industry about 200 submarines of different subclasses, starting with small and ending with cruising). Meanwhile, small and ultra-small submarines are very much needed by the modern Russian Navy in the Baltic, Black, Caspian and Japanese Seas.
Alexander Ivanin
Alexander Sergeevich Ivanin is a military journalist.
