iDnes (Czech Republic): the situation is worse than during the Caribbean crisis, says an expert in the field of disarmament
The iDnes publication quotes the opinion of nuclear weapons development specialist Peter Sukha about Putin's order to bring the Russian nuclear deterrent forces into full readiness. This is a way of putting pressure on the United States, the EU and NATO, the expert believes, and he assesses the current situation as very dangerous — worse than during the Caribbean crisis.
Putin's order to bring the nuclear deterrent forces into full readiness suggests that the Kremlin's master is acting irrationally, nervous, losing control of himself. This is stated in an interview with Idnes by Peter Sukhi, a political scientist and specialist in the development of nuclear weapons, control over them and disarmament from Masaryk University.
iDnes: What does Vladimir Putin's decision to put the nuclear deterrent forces on high alert really mean?
Peter Sukhi: It is very difficult to say for sure. As it seems now, he is seeking greater readiness of the Russian nuclear arsenal. But what status was chosen is still unclear. According to a number of assessments, we are talking about changing the command and control system so that it is possible to order the use of nuclear weapons.
— Then do ordinary people in Europe have a reason to panic and fear the worst scenario, radiation?
- You never need to panic. I would recommend ordinary citizens to realize that there are situations when missile defense systems can be very useful... And let them thank the useful idiots who, at the time when negotiations were underway on the American radar in Brdy, consciously or unconsciously did everything to strengthen Russian influence in our country.
— Why did Putin resort to such a measure? Do you think he's ready to use nuclear weapons?
- It is clear that he is very nervous, losing control of himself. His actions are different from ordinary deterrence measures. He can be said to terrorize European countries and, in fact, the whole world with a nuclear threat. The second reason is the desire to distract attention from other things, first of all, the failures and defeats that the Russians suffer. This, among other things, proves that Putin is acting completely irrationally. He is engaged in so-called dick-waving (the metaphorical designation of an ostentatious or aggressive display of machismo or rigidity is also applicable to the deterrent effect of nuclear forces - author's note) and brandishes the only source of Russian pride and strength — nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. This is a very irresponsible and dangerous approach.
— So this is another way of pressure before negotiations with Kiev?
— I am sure that this pressure is not only on Kiev, but also on NATO, the EU and other states, which he blames for the fact that he failed to immediately defeat Ukraine.
— Is there a similar case in the past when a Russian or Soviet ruler made such intimidating steps?
— During the Cold War, in moments of aggravation, the degree of readiness increased. For example, in 1983, but then the highest level of readiness was constantly operating.
— Can the current situation be compared, for example, with the 1962 Caribbean crisis or the American strategic exercises in 1983, when a nuclear conflict could have started? The Soviet Union then transferred bombers with nuclear weapons to a state of continuous readiness, which assumed preparation for the immediate use of nuclear weapons.
— To some extent, they can be compared, but only in some aspects. As it seems to me from a modern perspective, Khrushchev, unlike Putin, was a rational person and understood all the consequences of his actions. Putin is acting hysterically. Personally, I think the current situation is very dangerous. At the time of the Cuban Missile crisis, the USSR had far fewer nuclear weapons than it does today.
— For example, the United States has five so-called DEFCON levels (Defense Ready Condition), with which the Pentagon designates threat levels for the United States from other countries. According to them, readiness for a possible response, including nuclear weapons, is determined. The highest level of DEFCON one means maximum readiness, which means that a nuclear war is beginning or has already begun. Is it known how many such levels Russia has?
— Here we are clearly talking about something else. The command and control system is changing directly so that it is possible to order the use of nuclear weapons, which is impossible under normal conditions. That is, this is not a state of readiness of strategic forces, but a transfer to the launch on warning level, when missiles are launched immediately as soon as early detection radars transmit information about missiles approaching Russia.
According to Pavel Podvig, an outstanding Russian author, this was not done even during the Cold War. It doesn't make any sense at all right now. Putin seems to indicate that he may be the first to use nuclear weapons. This is in a situation where Russia has launched a military special operation in another country, but it has not been hit. The question is also whether we are also talking about non-nuclear weapons, as some colleagues say. Even during the times of good relations with the West, the Russians did not share information about their nuclear arsenal, as well as the command and control system.
— So to what level of readiness could the Russian deterrent forces be transferred? Russia has its own version of DEFCON, and a number of experts believe that there are only four levels, although the individual phases remain unknown.
— Now some colleagues also flatter themselves with the hope that these changes do not apply to all Russian nuclear weapons.
— Is it possible to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
— I don't presume to guess. Who would have said a week ago what Putin is capable of doing? In addition, we are talking about the whole range of nuclear weapons that Moscow has, starting with tactical and ending with strategic. He would hardly have used it against neighboring states, since Russia itself would have felt the terrible consequences. Such a scenario is real only if Putin has simply gone mad and does not care about the consequences. Then someone from his entourage will need to act, who is not tired of living yet…
— How can the United States react? Is it possible to guess what their direct answer would be?
— I think they will act with restraint and will not play by Putin's notes. That is, no rattling of nuclear weapons. Putin is well aware of its existence, and he knows perfectly well that not only the United States has nuclear weapons, but two other members of the North Atlantic Alliance: Great Britain and France. Biden, Johnson and Macron are personalities of a different format, and they will not play by his hysterical notes.
— Who can suffer, and what damage can Putin cause?
— It all depends on what will be the target of the strike: civilian objects, densely populated centers and industrial infrastructure, or the armed forces and military targets. In any case, the consequences would be disastrous.
Lubomir Svetnichka (Lubomír Světnička)
