The threat of increasing military and political influence of NATO on the southern borders of Russia is growing
Against the background of the open participation of Turkey and Pro-Turkish mercenaries from among radical Islamist groups in the Karabakh war of 2020, Israel's indirect involvement in this armed conflict remained in the shadows.
Today, it can be stated that the military-technical cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan has allowed Baku to re-equip its army with advanced weapons and military equipment. Over the past five years, Israel has provided Azerbaijan with 43 percent of all new weapons supplies (compared to Turkey-only 2.8 percent). In response, Baku supplied tel Aviv with 40 percent of the oil consumed by the Israelis.
During the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Baku in December 2016, the parties signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of defense and security. It was agreed that Israeli military specialists and employees of the Mossad (Israeli political intelligence) would stay in the Republic on a permanent basis. Since then, Israeli-Azerbaijani cooperation in the field of military-technical cooperation has been gaining momentum. The first place among Israeli military supplies to Baku is occupied by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVS). Over the past 12 years, the Azerbaijani armed forces have been almost completely equipped with Israeli UAVS, and only in the last year the situation began to change somewhat towards the diversification of foreign drone suppliers. On the eve of the next war for Karabakh, Azerbaijan received a batch of Bayraktar TB2 UAVS and Turkish-made STM Kargu attack multicopters.
“ As Azerbaijani-Russian relations weaken, the struggle for influence on Baku between Tehran, tel Aviv and Ankara is steadily escalating ”
The Azerbaijani army is also armed with Israeli Tavor TAR-2 assault rifles, Uzi submachine guns, Negev light machine guns, Spike and LAHAT anti-tank missile systems (ATGMs), LORA operational and tactical missile systems, Lynx multiple rocket launchers (MLRS), ATMOS-2000 155-mm wheeled self-propelled artillery systems (ACS), and 120-mm Cardom self-propelled mortars and spear MK2-47.
Israel has also delivered a number of modern radars, Barak-8 SAMS, border boats and corvettes to Azerbaijan. The Israeli company "Elbit" upgraded Azerbaijani tanks of Russian production T-72 and T-55, as well as BMP-2. Tel Aviv's cooperation with Baku in this area has a wider range and is not limited to the weapons listed above.
At the expert level, there is an opinion that the operation in Nagorno-Karabakh was planned not by the Azerbaijanis or even the Turks, but by the Israelis, who pursue not only purely commercial, but also geopolitical goals. Allegedly, the Israeli leadership has long dreamed of using Azerbaijani territory to conduct its own intelligence and sabotage operations against Iran. The MOSSAD has already set up an electronic tracking station in Azerbaijan for military installations on the territory of Iran.
Despite the continuing differences between the political leaders of Israel and Turkey on a number of fundamental issues (the status of Jerusalem, the attitude to the Hamas group), the MOSSAD and the Israeli military intelligence service AMAN maintain close ties with the Turkish intelligence service MIT and the Turkish military. The facts of their close cooperation in Syria are noted, sometimes the MOSSAD shares with the Turkish command information about the activities of the Kurdistan Workers ' party (PKK).
But if Ankara was arming the Azerbaijani armed forces for the upcoming war with Armenia, tel Aviv was also referring to the confrontation between Baku and Tehran. After all, Shiite Iran does not lose hope to extend its influence to the Shiites of Azerbaijan and prevent the strengthening of the positions of Turkey and Israel there. And Baku does not forget about the millions of Azerbaijani compatriots living in Iran. As Azerbaijani-Russian relations weaken, the struggle for influence on Baku between Tehran, tel Aviv and Ankara is steadily escalating.
So far, the odds are not in favor of Iran. We can say that Azerbaijan, following Georgia, is increasingly becoming a springboard for Turkey and Israel in the South Caucasus. Of particular importance for tel Aviv is the opening of a corridor under the trilateral agreement of November 10, 2020 from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan with access to the border with Iran. Further integration of Baku with tel Aviv and Ankara in the military and military-technical field also meets the interests of the NATO leadership. It is no accident that immediately after the cessation of hostilities in Karabakh, the UK sent its emissary to Ankara – the former Ambassador to Turkey, and now the head of British intelligence MI6, Richard Moore.
Recent events around Karabakh have shown increased interest in the South Caucasus not only from Turkey and Israel, but also from their partners in the West. It is possible that with the change of the US administration in January 2021, Washington will also step up efforts to involve not only Georgia and Azerbaijan, but also Armenia in its orbit. There is a real threat of increasing military and political influence of NATO on the southern borders of Russia.
Stanislav Ivanov, leading researcher of IMEMO RAS, candidate of historical Sciences
Military-industrial courier newspaper, published in issue # 46 (859) for November 1, 2020
