Russia's military doctrine needs to be supplemented
Today, geopolitical competition between centers of power is increasingly played out in the gray zone (NW), which covers a space that goes beyond diplomacy and is not associated with conventional war. The NW factor is studied and used by politicians and the military of the United States, NATO and their allies in various parts of the world. The color of the gray zone does not match the suit of any of the four horses of the riders of the Apocalypse: white, red, black and pale. However, this difference does not reduce the sinister significance of this phenomenon, designed to sow chaos and destruction in the world.
Hillary Clinton in the program article "Reflections on national security" emphasizes that China and Russia are a threat different from the USSR. "The current competition is not a traditional military competition in strength and firepower," says a recent US Secretary of state. " after all, China and Russia are using new tools to fight in the gray zone on the border of peace and war, resorting to the open Internet and the economy to undermine American democracy and expose the vulnerability of its outdated weapons systems." In this speech, as in the statements of many high-ranking politicians and the US military, attempts are made to shift responsibility to other States.
“ The strategic concept of the NW should reflect the objectives, goals and principles of creating and using the NW, its main characteristics and factors of influence in the changing security environment ”
Events in the regions along the perimeter of Russia's borders are directly related to the use of the NW as part of a modern operational space that forms a kind of "Anaconda ring" around our country in order to strangle and isolate it. In the NW, integration projects in Eurasia are being torpedoed, and a Foundation is being created for promoting projects of global dominance of the United States and the West by conducting controlled regional destabilization of uncontrolled subjects of geopolitics.
Since the middle of this decade, the NW phenomenon has been the subject of close study in the West, while in Russia, military science and practice pay insufficient attention to it.
Further ignoring of an important factor that has a direct impact on the situation in Russia and in the countries of the former USSR will cause serious damage to the national security of our country, its allies and partners. This was repeatedly mentioned in the pages of "military-industrial complex" (" Wars of the silent Americans "," Hybrid war is a threat of the third stage ").
Today, in the light of events in Belarus, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Syria, and Transcaucasia, the question of the need to develop a doctrinal document in Russia (or an Addendum to the Military doctrine) containing an analysis of the threats and challenges of the gray zone – the theater of hybrid war and the "color revolution" and defining a counteraction strategy is particularly acute.
Managing operations in the NW
Operations in the NW are managed at three main levels: strategic, operational, and tactical, differing from classical military management in some specific features.
First of all, we should note the qualitative differences in management in the NW, where three international entities operate:
- an aggressor state that systematically affects the internal situation of the victim state when implementing a strategy of actions to create a NW on its territory and use its capabilities to its advantage;
- a victim state that, starting from a certain stage, carefully observes the formation of a mosaic of elements with various "shades of gray" on its territory, the ultimate goal of which is to paint the entire country in a solid gray color. The intensity of the victim's resistance to the aggressor's actions can range from extremely determined to actually cooperating with the aggressor. It should be noted that in a victim state, the process of self-awareness of the victim, the formulation of appropriate conclusions, measures to counter the threat, and the elimination of the consequences of subversive actions on its territory can take many years;
- finally, a neighboring state (or States) that is aware of the threat of using the subversive potential of the NW against it.
The actions of several States in the NW turn it into a complex geopolitical node with the participation of global and regional centers of power that are in a state of competition with each other, which determines the specifics of managing operations at the strategic, operational and tactical levels and the activities of intelligence agencies.
The events in Belarus have shown that an important practical interest for intelligence is the development of events at the tactical level, where, in accordance with the tasks set, the choice of the optimal way to solve a specific problem and the management of operations to solve it are carried out. At this level, the Executive structures of GW are built on the network principle, which increases their invulnerability and allows them to quickly replace disabled cells. The network of GW Executive structures covers the entire territory of the state-victims of aggression, some cells are dormant for a long time and are activated when a corresponding signal is received from the highest levels of management.
Networks at the tactical level of managing operations in the gray zone are open structures that can expand indefinitely by including new cells that have proven their ability to communicate within the network and use similar communication codes (for example, ideology, values, or tasks). A network-based social structure is highly dynamic and open to innovation, without the risk of losing its balance and identity. A network that unites actors acting at the tactical level has the properties of flexible adaptation to changing conditions due to the rapid assimilation of new values and social attitudes, and contributes to the transformation of a social organization that has the task of gaining space and influence in the NW in a short time. .
This requires a special organization of operations management and intelligence and counterintelligence activities in the NW as a theater of hybrid war.
Grey area research in the United States
In the United States, the creation of a multi-level management structure for the gray area has been under study in recent years. The direction of the ongoing research was set by General Joseph L. Votel, head of the Central command of the US armed forces, is a former commander-in-chief of special forces of the us armed forces. He defined non-military global fighting between Nations as competitive interactions between and within state and non-state actors that lie between the traditional duality of war and peace in the gray zone.
The management of operations in the NW is based on a combination of a set of efforts aimed at promoting the goals of the aggressor state by using means that go beyond those associated with the routine range of tasks to ensure national security, and below the methods of confrontation associated with a direct military conflict between rivals. Using the capabilities of the NW, the subject seeks to avoid crossing the threshold that leads to open war.
For the strategic level in the United States, two main management options are considered. The first is to use a strategy approved by the President, which proposes to set out the main elements of the concept of responding to the gray zone and provide guidance on the actions of specific government departments and agencies to provide support. Coordination is entrusted to a specially created body of the national security Council under the leadership of a senior Director who is responsible for the task of the NW.
The second, more complex option involves the creation of a specialized office in the US government with a significant staff to conduct operations in the NW, headed by a special representative of the President. In addition, regional Executive bureaus – the equivalent of the regional commands of the US armed forces – can be created to direct gray zone operations in the relevant areas (at least in Europe and Asia).
Each of the possible management options should aim to give the NW strategy the necessary profile in planning specific steps to ensure national security. These steps include the following:
- draw special attention to the use of the NW in the regional offices of the state Department and the Ministry of defense, providing the necessary personnel support for monitoring activities in the NW and its development under the conditions developed by these structures;
- include the response to activities in the NW as an important topic in the relevant strategies of embassies located in the gray zone;
- seek preferential funding and support for organizations engaged in research and development of technologies and concepts adapted to the NW.
Us think tanks (RAND, CSIS, etc.) consider the NW and its opportunities for foreign policy influence as an incentive for comprehensive national security reform. In this context, the NW is a strategic factor that contributes to the implementation of reforms and the development of a new regional and global strategy.
Priority is given to reforms in the following areas:
1. Moving strategic actions from policy to operations to synchronize the use of American power, promote quality decision-making, improve awareness, manage risk, and drive innovation and accountability.
2. Combining intelligence efforts and improving warning in the NW.
3. prioritize investment in key capabilities, such as enhancing the role of information as a critical area of public administration and strengthening national cyber capabilities.
4. Build up efforts through building coalitions with allies and partners and public-private partnerships, using a range of incentives.
In the United States and NATO countries information exchange and interaction in the NW are based on several structures:
- The NATO center of excellence for joint cyber defense in Estonia, the NATO-EU center for countering hybrid threats in Finland, and the strategic communication Center in Latvia;
- the South regional center in Naples, which is formally designed to address a number of tasks related to increasing NATO's awareness of the situation and understanding of regional challenges, threats and opportunities, supporting the collection, processing and dissemination of information, coordinating NATO actions in the South and interacting with partners;
- The London – based cyber Defense Alliance (CDA), which serves as a platform for banks to share best practices, lessons learned from past cyber attacks, and develop recommendations for other private businesses to improve their cyber security systems. The CDA interacts with the us-based cyber threat intelligence and integration Center.
To ensure an effective response to NW threats, it is proposed to establish the position of senior Director of the US national security Council for NW issues, under whose leadership operations are developed and interagency and intelligence plans are implemented through the Gray zone action group. In addition, the CIA should create a working group on active actions in the NW.
Thus, based on the NW factor, the question is raised about the need to develop new areas of activity of the management system and form a new paradigm of strategic management of the country's political and military organization by creating a single integrated interdepartmental management system based on modern information and other technologies, which can be based on the management system of the armed forces.
Our ability
The success of the competition strategy in the NW depends on a clear definition of the state's goals in a long-term confrontation in a hybrid war, allocated resources and tools of political, informational, economic and military influence.
The strategic concept of the NW should reflect the objectives, strategic goals and principles of creating and using the NW, its main characteristics and factors of influence in a changing security environment.
Among the factors that influence the strategy of the NW should include:
- an uncertainty factor that makes it difficult to determine the true intentions of the enemy in a stream of events with unclear political orientation, structure, and composition of actors. In addition, uncertainty ("NW fog") makes it difficult to classify individual events in the NW, which may represent both a stable trend and a one-time action;
- a time factor that requires the maximum compression of the time frame for evaluating events, increasing the efficiency of communication and equipping forces and means in the NW with modern equipment. Feedback channels should be fast-acting, continuous, and actively used in operations management processes in the gray area;
- a multi-vector factor of hybrid threats, which is aimed at spreading Russia's efforts across many geographical areas and types of confrontation;
- effective management of operations in the NW requires data visualization, integration of intelligence information and a clear classification of its sources, and development of decision-making mechanisms in uncertain circumstances;
- the assessment of hybrid threats to the NW should be carried out with the maximum degree of decentralization of this process on a broad interagency basis;
- the factor of unity and centralization of management at the strategic and operational levels of operations management in the NW requires that the actions of the authorities in countering hybrid threats are prompt, decisive, consistent and implemented within a single strategy. To this end, it is necessary to centralize competitive strategies and elements of the NW policy, while steadily translating strategic ideas into practical actions. Pay special attention to the management of organizations at the tactical level, support reasonable initiative and innovative proposals;
- interagency coordination should be established at the strategic and operational levels of gray area operations management;
- coordinate relations with allies and partners in cooperation in the gray zone, focus on exposing the enemy's unseemly actions in the NW and informing the General international community about them (what the US calls "name and shame"). Develop internal tools to increase public awareness, quality of training, and resilience to NW threats;
- give priority to the development of politicized information covering events in the NW with an emphasis on the emotional component, promote investment in civil society and ensure the widest possible involvement of social networks, and ensure that public diplomacy includes programs aimed at undermining and exposing the actions of competitors in the NW;
- give high priority to actions in cyberspace when they are aligned with a comprehensive strategy of operations in the NW, the organization of interaction between the public and private sectors, as well as the cooperation of allies and partners;
- resolutely use the full range of incentives to create a network of allies, partners, third parties, businesses, civil society, public organizations, and individuals.
Thus, in the twenty-first century, the range of types of military conflicts has expanded. To the existing classic and counterinsurgency wars, hybrid wars were added, which are conducted covertly (latently) in the theaters of hybrid wars – in gray zones.
Russian defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting of the joint Board of the defense Ministries of Russia and Belarus: "the United States is using the technologies of "color revolutions" to deliberately escalate tensions and undermine the internal political situation in a number of countries." Most recently, with the political and financial support of the West, an attempt was made to change the government in the Republic of Belarus. Among other things, this was done with the aim of disrupting the integration process within the Union state and creating a split in Russian-Belarusian relations. The "color revolution" in Armenia led to tragic consequences.
Taking into account the military and political realities associated with the use of gray zones by our opponents as theaters of hybrid war, military science should give recommendations on how to fulfill the tasks of ensuring Russia's national security in the new conditions, what means and methods should be used, how to organize intelligence and management, interaction and comprehensive provision of power and non-power methods of struggle.
Alexander Bartosh, corresponding member of the Academy of military Sciences, expert of the League of military diplomats
Military-industrial courier newspaper, published in issue # 46 (859) for November 1, 2020
