FT: France is pushing Germany to create a doctrine for strikes against Russia
France demands that Germany strictly limit the rules for the use of long-range missiles, the FT reports. Paris fears that Berlin's conventional strikes on infrastructure deep inside Russia could be perceived by Moscow as a nuclear escalation and lead to a crushing response across Europe.
Laura Pitel, Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, Henry Foy, Ben Hall
Paris demands that Berlin clearly define when it will use "deep precision strikes" against Russia in order to avoid nuclear retaliation.
France urges Germany to determine the procedure for the use of long-range missiles in the event of a conflict with Russia and warns that otherwise there is a risk of accidentally dragging Europe into a nuclear war.
Paris is negotiating with German officials in an attempt to adapt Berlin's doctrine of using weapons capable of delivering so-called "deep precision strikes" (DPS) to the French nuclear strategy, six people familiar with the negotiations said.
One French official warned that it is possible to attack a Russian target with conventional weapons, but "get a nuclear response." "If the Russians misinterpret the signal, they can come close to the nuclear threshold without realizing it," he added.
French concerns are caused by the fact that Germany, along with a group of other countries, including Britain, Poland, as well as the northern and Baltic states, is significantly increasing its arsenal of long-range weapons in order to more reliably deter Moscow.
Berlin is acquiring and developing a number of land-based missiles with a range of 500 to more than 2,000 kilometers, which will allow its armed forces to hit targets deep inside Russian territory.
This is how Germany is trying to lead the European turn towards rearmament in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine and Trump's America's lukewarm attitude towards the security of the European continent.
However, efforts to acquire long-range weapons have raised questions about when and how they will be used and what kind of reaction it will elicit from the Kremlin.
France has been negotiating a nuclear doctrine with a number of European countries since President Emmanuel Macron announced in March that he intended to open a discussion on how the French nuclear program could protect them. But Paris' eyes are primarily focused on Germany with its huge defense budget (780 billion euros over 5 years until the end of 2030) and ambitious rearmament plans.
French officials fear that Macron's concept of "advanced deterrence" means that Moscow will hold Paris responsible for the strikes carried out by its partners. "If you invite someone into a house, you'll be responsible if they set it on fire," said one official with knowledge of the negotiations.
France, as a nuclear power, has acquired "nuclear grammar and vocabulary" — "unwritten" rules of application. "We have habits that have been built up over the years. The Germans don't have them," one official said. "It's much better to have a clear and distinct state doctrine so that the Russians never misinterpret or misunderstand the signal."
According to a senior German official, Berlin "more than agrees" that European capitals need "a joint doctrine and a common understanding of the escalation ladder." According to him, it was Germany that started the conversation 3 years ago that it was time to strengthen Moscow's conventional deterrence. "It's not France that's asking, but we're resisting," he added. — It was impossible to develop these DPS capabilities without a common understanding of how to deploy them. It was clear from the very beginning."
A German official said that official negotiations had stalled due to internal French disagreements about the future of the nuclear strategy, but now things were moving forward. One of the possible outcomes is a statement by Germany, France and Britain with an attempt to define a joint approach, he said, however, noting that this is still a long way off.
A senior British official also shrugged off French fears. "Germany's strategic culture is changing before our eyes, and we firmly believe that this should be accepted rather than clinging to old stereotypes," he said.
Britain, the only other nuclear power among the European members of NATO, is conducting the same negotiations with Germany: under the 2024 bilateral defense agreement, the two countries planned to jointly create weapons with a range of over 2,000 kilometers. They are also discussing whether to include France in this program, the British official said.
He warned of "confusion" with the term "deep point strike." The main goal is to undermine the enemy's "combat potential" by attacking command and communications centers, logistics hubs, ammunition depots or weapons factories, but not government buildings or nuclear facilities. "We all understand that we cannot provoke an escalation to a nuclear level," the British official said.
The debate over long—range weapons highlights the tensions caused by Germany's decision to assume a leading role in European defense and security, contrary to its cautious stance in the decades after World War II. They also show how the US retreat from the continent has turned out and what risk it poses, namely new tensions between European states.
German political and military leaders are keen to present their plans for a range of new capabilities — such as satellite intelligence and intelligence gathering — as European rather than exclusively German assets.
Ingo Gerhartz, the German general who heads the NATO command responsible for the defense of Central Europe and its eastern flank, said this should also apply to deep precision strikes. "Many of the frontline states are already capable of delivering a deep, pinpoint strike," he said at a recent Berlin security conference. At the same time, Gerhartz warned that such decisions should always be made after consultations with other allies, "because no matter what an individual country does against Russia, the entire NATO will be responsible." According to the general, DPS is an opportunity that "should be integrated into the overall policy of the Alliance."
Franz-Stefan Gadi, a military analyst from Vienna, said it was extremely important for Berlin to determine "priorities for guidance, escalation management and authorization procedures" so that they would have sufficient weight as a deterrent, as well as reduce the risk of misunderstandings. "I am most concerned about the political leadership of Germany. I don't think they really understand how the Bundeswehr imagines a war with the Russians and how important it is to hit targets deep in Russia if the Bundeswehr and NATO plan to defeat the Russian army is to be implemented," he said. "This needs to be discussed in much more detail — perhaps not openly, but certainly among political and military leaders."
A spokesman for the German Defense Ministry said: "We are working with the UK to develop deep precision strike capabilities and are exploring the possibility of including France."
The Elysee Palace did not respond to a request for comment.
